Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

McRoger that

[Cody_Russell]

Watching the ABC affiliate out of Flint, WJRT Channel 12 this morning while sipping my coffee.

Couldn't help but notice the overwhelming number of Biden ads. Which leads me to the question. If Biden is so far ahead in Michigan, with Trump having "no chance" of overcoming Joe's lead, why is the Biden campaign dumping so much money into a TV market that is thought to be solidly pro-Biden?

Since 8:30 am EST when I turned on my TV, I've seen at least 12 Biden ads on just that one station. My TV has been on less than an hour, and I'm being inundated by Biden ads.

But he's "solidly ahead" in Michigan.

Sorry, said I wouldn’t comment in this thread until Wednesday... BUT WTF Michigan.

Literally a Biden or Gary Peters EVERY commercial break for the M vs MSU football game. Can’t imagine what YouTube, local TV, etc is like.

Talk about over exposure. This is annoying AF.

[Ghengis Jon]

Biden is spending every dime he has. Trump is not. Remember, when Super PACs dissolve themselves, they can legally give whatever leftover money they have to anyone they want.


Mitch Albom, of all people, wrote a decent piece arguing that this election will be meaningless if we all don't lose our stupid partisan extremism.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/mitch-albom/2020/11/01/mitch-albom-2020-presidential-election/6102179002/

[WingsFan]

Literally a Biden or Gary Peters EVERY commercial break for the M vs MSU football game. Can’t imagine what YouTube, local TV, etc is like.

Talk about over exposure. This is annoying AF.

lol I know its everywhere (youtube) I think I have every commercial from both memorized.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Today's COVID headlines scream an out of control pandemic nationally and globally with public health officials throwing up their hands. It encourages all of us to just give up. I think that denigrates the efforts to subdue this thing by the pharmaceutical industry, care providers and PH officials who are busting their assess to problem solve. It also neglects the fighting spirit of Americans. Good news abounds but it is really hard to find it in a media blitz, a lot of it politically motivated, that drowns out that good news and does nothing but discourage us. I'm not going down the list. You know it because I'm pointing it out almost everyday along with others contributing to a balanced pandemic view that post here.

People I socialize with, most of us at risk due to age, are frightened. My efforts to contextualize the awful news get listened to but I'm not sure my words have much impact. That's sad and it's because they are over-exposed to the torrent of scary news, most of it terribly over-blown, from the media; little encouraging news reaches them.

One of my new ideas is to point out that this is a war involving the entirety of the world's nations against a viral foe. In the period between 1937 and 1945, that would be WWII, 85 million people perished in the Allied effort to defeat the Axis powers of Nazi Germany, Mussolini's Italy and Imperial Japan. As of today, 1.2 million have perished in the battle v. SARS-CoV-2 - about a tenth as many. Context. And the realization that this terrible time, just like that of WWII, is going to end and it is going to end in a lot shorter time frame than WWII.

I'd list all the FL data but I suspect you're tired of that. So, I'll just repeat the basics. Yes, case numbers are up in FL, positivity rates remain between 5-6%, ED visits for ILI and CLI are way down, deaths are way down, hospitalizations are down and no hospitals are reporting any problems with bed or staff shortages. Most things in FL are open and operating because we have a Governor who is leading not cowering and telling all the hand-wringers to sit down and STFU - that includes the teacher's union spokes-people, the media along with his political opponents determined to fuck him over. There's a boat show going on in FTL. Bars and restaurants are operating, cruise ships will start showing up in FL's ports tomorrow preparing to get back to sailing. Importantly, people in counties where there is community spread are getting the message, wearing masks and distancing. We can move around safely, make decisions about where we will go and what we will do on our own generally having a mostly normal life.

Death sucks and I'm determined, like any good soldier, not to let the bastards that are the virus kill me. That thought brings to mind a lesser known quote in one of General George S. Patton's famous kick ass speeches:

I don’t want to get any messages saying, "I am holding my position." We are not holding a Goddamned thing. Let the Germans do that. We are advancing constantly and we are not interested in holding onto anything, except the enemy’s balls. We are going to twist his balls and kick the living shit out of him all of the time. Our basic plan of operation is to advance and to keep on advancing regardless of whether we have to go over, under, or through the enemy.

So, to the fucks in the media and to some extent PH officials who are pushing the idea that the pandemic is out of control and we should all just bend over and take it up the ass, I offer Patton's words.

[WingsFan]

ugh People need to be careful. Went on FB don't really care too but seen 3 people I knew from long ago have it and are on ventilators. My sister calls me and her husband has tested positive Covid -19 (Fever dry cough now ). She was freaking thinking she had it for sure, but came back negative - shit is not going away anytime soon.


Note I was going to go over visit there the day before he was tested, but she didn't text back - Fuck

[Ghengis Jon]

Putin wants an Atlas interview, Trump complies.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/media/scott-atlas-russian-media/index.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

One of the great things about the US election is that it is quieting both the reports of COVID dire consequences and weather headlines. The lack of news about the stunning impact of Hurricane Zeta in the SE is surprising. I can do without that news being on the front page. Disasters suck but the good news, the recovery spirit of those in hard hit areas usually outweighs the bad although you'd never know it if you're watching TV news as a primary source.

Unless you delve into the details, you'll not know that Germany and Britain are in a soft lock down. There's a lock-down but its targeted and unlike the ones imposed in March and April. A good indicator of the social impact of these soft lock-downs is watching the leisure industry, esp, the restaurant, bar, hotel and cruise industries. These are still operating albeit with some additional restrictions being imposed, e.g., indoor dining limited, outdoor continues with the usual mitigation measures. Both TUI, a German based cruise company, and MSC an Italian company are still cruising. To date, none of these lines has had a positive COVID case that originated on board a ship. I think that here in the US, given local community spread, you'll see local PH officials advising some targeted mitigation measures but no "lock-downs" as we knew them early in the pandemic.

I found this story on GMA today amusing. The question presented to the dude from John's Hopkins that is their COVID expert, was, "how do Americans vote safely?" Well, his response was fair ....."polls are reasonably safe places with the steps they've taken if you mask and distance." So, yeah, go vote. I guess that means if you "mask and distance" you can safely go to any establishment that has taken "steps" to mitigate the virus, right? Like, go fly, go to sporting events, board a cruise ship, go to a restaurant ..... you know, get the fuck out of your basement and go places. So much contradictory advice from these meat heads.

[Tom W]

lol I know its everywhere (youtube) I think I have every commercial from both memorized.

Yep, and the incessant calls for people to "VOTE!"- as if they had no clue that there's a regularly scheduled election coming up is pure nausea.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Can't post the article because it's behind a paywall but Cook Political's final prediction for Congress is a Dem gain of 10-15 seats.

229 Solid/Lean Dem seats
179 Solid/Lean Republican seats
27 toss-ups

[Hannibal]

My final prediction for the electoral map...

483AP.png

I'm basing FL and WI off of early voting numbers that suggest that the Rs are significantly ahead of where they should be at this stage. This all assumes that the Rs will vastly outnumber the Ds on election day itself, and if they Ds aren't way ahead as of today, the Rs win. Shaky assumption but clearly stated for the record.

[iam416]

I think Biden wins both CDs, Wisconsin, Florida and NC. So, I'll say 335.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Where are you reading that Republicans are way ahead of where they want to be in Wisconsin? Wisconsin doesn't record party registration in its early vote count.

Florida does and Dems have about a 100,000 vote lead as of this morning. The gurus I read think it'll be very close down there. 80% of all registered voters in Republican strongholds Sumter and Collier Counties have already voted, so there's not much more room to grow in those places on Election Day. With 20% of the Electorate down there being Independent it'll come down to which way they lean this year.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm seeing news that RAPID antigen and RT/PCR tests are becoming increasingly available. FL paper ran a detailed article on that this morning. FL obtained a shit-ton of the BINAX NOW, RAPID Antigen test (results in minutes) and is making them available at state run drive-through testing sites. Results are being reported by text in about 30 minutes. They are generally not available at commercial sites, e.g., CVS. It's reported you can get both the BINAX NOW test and a regular RT/PCR test (takes about 3d for results) as a back-up at the same time. Seems to me the best approach would be to administer the BINAX NOW test and IF POSITIVE, return for the RT/PCR. Not sure that report is accurate. Would be a waste of resources to simply administer the RT/PCR test without a basis to do so.

I've harped on the necessity for increased testing. I've not seen widely reported introduction of rapid tests in other states yet. I suspect that's happening but I'm not seeing it. Michigan? Ohio? for those living there, chime in. FL ran over 100K tests on Sunday and had a 4.3% positivity rate. I'm also aware that not only is state messaging enforcing the need for people to operate with contact tracing but that such tracing is actually going pretty well and may be behind FL's apparent success in keeping community spread down. The media claims the state is under-reporting deaths and positivity rates. Whatever.

Desantis has been out-front in dealing with the pandemic. He gets bashed because he's an R more than he gets credit. At some point, he's going to be shown to have dealt with the pandemic better than his cowering D governor counterparts - there are exceptions but generally state D administrations have been strict mitigation measure supporters including business and school closings when new case numbers rise. Desantis has been aggressive in business openings and deferring to local officials who are urged to use local data and established metrics to drive decisions on implementing restrictions. Good on him.

[Hannibal]

Where are you reading that Republicans are way ahead of where they want to be in Wisconsin? Wisconsin doesn't record party registration in its early vote count.

Florida does and Dems have about a 100,000 vote lead as of this morning. The gurus I read think it'll be very close down there. 80% of all registered voters in Republican strongholds Sumter and Collier Counties have already voted, so there's not much more room to grow in those places on Election Day. With 20% of the Electorate down there being Independent it'll come down to which way they lean this year.

I have seen this site getting a lot of attention...

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

This site attempts to model party affiliation through a combination of history and surveys. I don't really understand how it works.

With turnout at 61% of 2016 turnout. "modeled" Rs are down by 1.2% versus 2016, when they were down by 9.2% headed into election day. I should point out that my faith in "fancystats" and rocket science modeling algorithms isn't very strong right now, but there you have it. They may simply assume that independents break a certain way based off of past results. I really don't know.