Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Ghengis Jon]

Veterinary researchers at the University of Helsinki have been testing whether or not dogs can sniff out COVID-19, and Anna Hielm-Bjorkman has the good news: They can. With almost 100% accuracy. "A dog could easily save so, so, so many lives," she told the Associated Press. A pilot program at the Helsinki Airport is having travelers wipe their wrists or neck with a cloth, which the trained dogs then sniff. They can identify the virus up to five days before any symptoms appear. People who test positive at the voluntary canine site are directed to the airport's medical unit for confirmation. Hielm-Bjorkman said travelers have been eager to participate, waiting up to an hour in line. [AP, 10/21/2020]


Dogs rule, cats drool.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't think MS-13 is coming to kill me nor do I think COVID is either.....and I'm old.

There's strong support for the view that much of the COVID data we have is unreliable. That includes deaths and new case numbers. How reliable then are the conclusions being drawn from this data? Not very. The COVID data does not need to be entirely dismissed but it has to be scrutinized and that is particularly true of the conclusions being drawn from it, a good deal of the dire consequences narrative being politically motivated.

So, yeah, this is where we are. We're in the midst of a global pandemic that is proceeding much like previous pandemics where there is no human immunity to it. Exponential growth predicts large numbers of new infections. People are going to get infected, most will be fine, few will become seriously ill or die. Unfortunately, when you're talking about billions of humans globally, there's going to be millions of seriously ill people and hundreds of thousands will die.

The COVID realty is that treatments and patient management are improving. Deaths are either holding steady or declining and this is despite headlines that hospitals are "stretched to their limits." WTF does that mean? Sounds scary, right? I can find isolated examples of ICU beds at one hospital being 100% occupied or there's a staff shortage there. That doesn't mean a state's hospital system is not capable of redistributing ICU patient loads. For every two deaths, keep in mind there are 98 people that either had no or mild symptoms and recovered. Few people are lining up to declare these realities and if they do they are getting drowned out by the prevailing negative, mostly politically motivated narrative.

I've been asking myself, would a national mask mandate work? Could it be effectively enforced? Who would pay for the resources to enforce a mask mandate? Should you implement robust testing and tracing strategies? There's ample evidence that states or counties that mandated masks and enforced their use had lower positivity rates (a reflection of community spread) lower than those that didn't. In come cases, much lower. Same for testing and tracing and it appears that the combination of these are very effective in controlling viral spread. So, if you want to get behind something, take personal responsibility for yourself, those around you and advocate for robust testing and tracing.

I'm still a believer in State's rights, don't like unfunded federal mandates and I support the concept of local control. I don't care if Presidents or Governors don't mandate masks and are pilloried for doing that. Clearly they work but mandating them and enforcing those mandates need to be local decisions based on resources available. Despite the negativity, there are examples of states and counties where correctly targeted mitigation measures of varying degrees of implementation and enforcement have been effective. We need to tough this out, mute the unreasonably loud negative narrative and not over-react to it, reject calls for national or even state level untargeted, broad ranging shuttering and restrictions to mobility, leaving such decisions to local officials based on granular local data.

Take the long view. As time passes, as treatments improve, as vaccines are introduced, as it has with previous pandemics, life will return to normal. Meanwhile do your part to act reasonably and responsibly in the face of SARS-CoV-2; adhere to basic and locally imposed mitigation measures, advocate for testing and tracing.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump is sooooo irresponsible with these large rallies...Biden is doing the responsible thing...keeping his to double digits. Not double digits thousands...just double digits...

Omaha rally sounds like it was a blast afterwards

[iam416]

Welp, according to 538, the ABC/WaPo group is an "A+" poll and they have Biden up by 17 in Wisconsin.Ordinarily, I mnight suggest that there's reasons that might not be right, but, hey, I don't want to get labeled anti-Science or something similar.

17. Wow. It's completely over.

[iam416]

We need to tough this out, mute the unreasonably loud negative narrative and not over-react to it, reject calls for national or even state level untargeted, broad ranging shuttering and restrictions to mobility, leaving such decisions to local officials based on granular local data.

Fortunately, Biden is almost the President-elect so we'll see a total about-face on the Narrative. Pretty soon, it'll be all about cherry-picking the most favorable stats and showing that we're moving in the right direction.

And I don't think there's much he's going to be able to do in terms of federal mandates. It's just not possible from a structural standpoint.

We're not China. We can't lock everyone down for months, report 3 deaths a week or something and then report huge 3Q GDP growth. They're truly miracle workers.

[Tom W]

Veterinary researchers at the University of Helsinki have been testing whether or not dogs can sniff out COVID-19, and Anna Hielm-Bjorkman has the good news: They can. With almost 100% accuracy. "A dog could easily save so, so, so many lives," she told the Associated Press. A pilot program at the Helsinki Airport is having travelers wipe their wrists or neck with a cloth, which the trained dogs then sniff. They can identify the virus up to five days before any symptoms appear. People who test positive at the voluntary canine site are directed to the airport's medical unit for confirmation. Hielm-Bjorkman said travelers have been eager to participate, waiting up to an hour in line. [AP, 10/21/2020]


Dogs rule, cats drool.

No doubt that dogs have saved countless lives since March.. One can only imagine how much worse the levels of depression, substance abuse, domestic violence and divorce would be if our dogs weren't there with a "WTF?- it's all going to be all right" attitude. They've been more reliable and effective stabilizers than the government, press and the "Science".

[Dr. Strangelove]

Fortunately, Biden is almost the President-elect so we'll see a total about-face on the Narrative. Pretty soon, it'll be all about cherry-picking the most favorable stats and showing that we're moving in the right direction.

And I don't think there's much he's going to be able to do in terms of federal mandates. It's just not possible from a structural standpoint.

We're not China. We can't lock everyone down for months, report 3 deaths a week or something and then report huge 3Q GDP growth. They're truly miracle workers.

I don't think that will happen. We're heading into a rough stretch and there's not going to be a way to spin positive about it.

Germany & France both going into new lockdowns, although not as strict as spring. Germany is keeping schools open. Enough to get markets tanking though.

Whether you think "things are getting better" is almost a "micro" vs. "macro" debate. On the micro level: unquestionably better. An individual's chances of survival are improving all the time and were always very high for the young. On a macro level I'm open to a debate on that but I am on the side of things going downhill again. And I think I'm right on that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Word of caution for election night regarding Texas

In Travis County (Austin) enough people have now voted early to exceed the TOTAL vote in 2016. Harris County (Houston) is expected to do the same either today or tomorrow. Huge population growth accounts for a lot of that. Both are liberal bastions.

I'm not sure how Texas counts its votes but if they are allowed to start tabulating the early vote before Election Day, once the polls close it's possible that tv reporting will show Biden with a sizeable lead. If so, that will rapidly change. The Election Day vote in Texas in all likelihood will be extremely pro-Trump. We don't know for certain because Texas isn't recording the party affiliation of people who have voted, just the raw numbers.

But overall, Texas is 87% of the way towards matching the 2016 vote, which is sort of amazing to me.

[iam416]

On a macro level in terms of the United States, I look at absolute numbers. I'm reconciled to the fact that this thing is going to ebb and flow and ebb and flow. We're currently right about where we were in the summer spike. I think we'll surpass that, but not by a great deal. You're probably looking at deaths getting back to 1000 or slightly above. None of this is great, but it's all manageable.

A further point re "trending" statements. The reason I really don't like the relative statements is that they are so time-dependenet. Things were trending positive in June and GREAT in early September (not that anyone would ever dare dream of reporting a story like that). If the relative date is April, we're trending great (much higher cases, but MUCH lower deaths). None of that tells me anything. The question always has to be "where are we and is this manageable?"

It's clear to me that it's entirely manageable in terms of hospital space and mortality. The case numbers are going to be what they're going to be. I honestly don't care about them. I care about deaths and our ability to treat severe cases. That's it. Columbus, e.g., has a massive overflow plan in place from April that they've never come close to using. Franklin County could probably withstand a MASSIVE jump in cases and still have hospital space. I think virtually every major population center is in a similar situation -- that is, afterall, why we temporarily flattened the curve.

So, as of today, you're right that things are getting "worse" in terms of increased cases and increased deaths. "Getting worse" has not quantitiative value, though. To me, it's a worthless statement. And that's probably where we disagree the most -- you're absolutely set on describing this thing in relative terms and I'm absolutely set on describing it in absolute terms. Or rather, your descriptions of Covid are almost always relative -- whether you think that's the best way to describe it, I don't know. I only know that your posts are always "increasing" or "getting worse" or "more cases" or whatever. Never, e.g., 7-day deaths for Ohio is 26. That's where we differ the most.

[iam416]

I don't think that will happen. We're heading into a rough stretch and there's not going to be a way to spin positive about it.

We'll see about this. We're going to see a considerable spike which means we're eventually going to see an considerable ebb. Probably about the time Biden takes office or takes over the response. That's the great thing about relative analysis. And if you think the decrease in cases from the Winter Spike we all knew was coming won't be painted as a heroic, positive trend thanks to President Joe then....welp....again... we'll see.

Your faith in the impartial, objective Media honestly astounds me at times. But, maybe my kooky nutjob beliefs will take a hit when the narrative remains the same.

[Hannibal]

Don't worry -- Biden will just shut down the virus, not the economy.

[iam416]

Just like President Xi did!

[THE_WIZARD_]

...and Commish Warren!

[Da Geezer]

If this becomes an election about shutdowns versus no shutdowns, then Trump benefits.

[Hannibal]

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