Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

Serious post --

Condemning the riots is not enough. The underlying false premises that are driving them have to be destroyed. Even Trump has not had the courage to do that.

[iam416]

I'd be surprised if he calls out antifa. I'd be a definitive positive if he did. I think it'd do him wonders to ease whatever concerns "swing" voters are having. I don't think he needs to condemn the mayors or even BLM activists. But, being specific would be a positive. It'd probably also help to talk some law and order, but he can't do that.

What concerns me more than a little bit is that his current tact is blindingly stupid. The only way he can lose this election is to actually do a bunch of shit to LOSE the election. I don't think this is nearly enough, but I'd much rather see him fucking nip this shit in the bud rather than simply waiting for it go away or for PDJT to do something stupid.

[iam416]

Condemning the riots is not enough. The underlying false premises that are driving them have to be destroyed. Even Trump has not had the courage to do that.

That's the thing. Or rather, it gets to the heart of the matter. That's the reason Biden and the Ds won't call out the rioters, err -- peaceful protestors -- because Biden and the Ds fundamentally agree with them. They may disapprove of their methods -- some methods -- but they agree with them. So, if they step a little over the line it's ok because it's in the name of a worthy cause. That's why it's so hard for them.

The demonstrably false narratives are here to stay, though. I don't think there's any undoing those.

[Hannibal]

They are only here to stay if the Republicans never muster the courage to weather the storm and fight back against them. A small amount of prominent voices would make a huge difference.

[Hannibal]

The NASDAQ is threatening 12,000 today. Hope none of y'all sold it at 7,000. Or maybe it will be back there soon who knows.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Talent is issuing a RUTS type beatdown of DSL...

[iam416]

My financial advisor called me in early April and asked me what I wanted to do -- or rather, advised that if I had money laying around it'd be a good time to invest. I knew it, too. But, alas, I didn't have a pile of money laying around.

[Dr. Strangelove]

He'll call out ANTIFA. There is no political liability to doing so. Republicans and Republican-dominated media greatly exaggerate the influence these people have within the Dem Party and even the structure of ANTIFA itself is exaggerated. My concern is that every time Trump demands Biden do this or do that and Biden responds, it makes him look like he's on the hook for the riots more than Trump himself is. And I guarantee a generic statement against ANTIFA won't be enough, Trump will next demand he call on all the mayors to resign or call on Trump to send in the military to all these cities.

So we've got this dual track narrative set up where Biden is a drooling invalid that can't even remember his own name but he's also the powerful head of a criminal organization whose members will drop their Molotov cocktails and crowbars with just one word from him. Biden could stop the riots any time he wants but also, don't elect Biden because the riots will be out of control.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The NASDAQ is threatening 12,000 today. Hope none of y'all sold it at 7,000. Or maybe it will be back there soon who knows.

I have no idea what's going to happen over the next 4 years but the amount of index value concentrated in just a handful of companies is increasingly crazy.

Apple has tremendous China exposure...other than that I can't see any reason the Big 5 go down any time soon.

[iam416]

He'll call out ANTIFA.

That will please me greatly if/when it happens. I hope you are correct. And I hope it's meaningful.

I think his boldest approach would be to acknowledge that Mayors should do a better job -- for example, maybe prosecute some rioters who are arrested instead of completely ignoring it. And then he could bitch at PDJT.

His target audience is Midwest/Florida suburban voters. That's it. If he wins those voters -- and for chrissakes, he should -- he can't lose. I don't think brooking the Kenosha nonsense works for him, but perhaps I'm wrong.

I'd reiterate -- I'm not talking about what I want to see him say or what I think is right -- I'm talking about ways he can effectively dull this issue as a matter of politics. I don't think it's a good issue for him regardless, but it doesn't have to be a bad issue, either. If it's neutral then he's cruising home an easy winner. That's where I think he needs to be -- somewhere close to neutral.

Now, if you don't think it'll change the election, then he can stand strong with his base.

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's crazy to think how much can change in a decade but in 2013 Exxon had the largest market cap of any American company. 7 years later they've been removed as a DOW component and their stock is largely surviving thanks to a generous dividend.

[iam416]

In case anyone is still confused as to what's going on, this article very neatly sums up the Ds efforts to "Whitewash Leftist Violence" -- https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...tist-violence/

There's not much to argue with in that article, just the sad truth.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Somebody sent me this link and even though the Economist is mostly pay-walled this link isn't. I've been following this stuff in the economist and the reporting is solid and so is the method that provides the background for the interactive charts. Of note, of the 200 or so polls that form data points that then get analyzed statistically to produce the real time and projected EC figures and % probabilities, only one has Trump at or above 50% probability to win. I wold think that would bias the outcome based on the data. There's also a huge margin for error in this analysis .... whatever. TIFWIW.

https://projects.economist.com/us-20...t?utm_campaign

[Dr. Strangelove]

DOJ close to charging former GOP fundraiser Elliott Broidy with lobbying on behalf of a foreign government. Broidy was the RNC's #2 in the fundraising wing for a time, working alongside ex-Trump lawyer Michael Cohen and current Postmaster General Louis DeJoy (small world isn't it?). Eventually he resigned after it was revealed he'd had an affair with a Playboy Playmate and paid for her to have an abortion

Anyways he is alleged to have been working for the Malaysian government in trying to get charges dropped against some Malaysian state company....but also lobbyied for the Chinese government in trying to get a Chinese exile deported back to China.

That's sort of the interesting part of this. The exile is Guo Wengui. The same Chinese businessman whose yacht Steve Bannon was on when he was arrested.

Steve Wynn, the casino magnate and Broidy's boss at the RNC, was also pressing for Wengui to be deported back to China. By total coincidence Wynn had substantial investments at the time in several Macao casinos.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...392_story.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Tom wondered in a post in another thread why some statisticians haven't come up with ways to make the data points more accurate.

There's a lot of this stuff out there. I've seen it, read it, and found it too obscure to post. The reason for it is that as scientists tend to do, their study and analysis will be laid out to serve some unique interest or to address a unique question. For example, what is the CFR when it is age, race and gender stratified. This leads to a stunningly long and complex analysis designed to give the study power. There are the outcomes and these are convoluted and discussed in a 5 paragraph discussion..... and you think my stuff is too long. You have no idea.

The important thing to understand is that I don't think there is one precise answer to the question how many people die from COVID? It depends. In a general sense, not as many as the press would have us believe and deaths are concentrated in a very narrow age range. You would think this would be enough to develop appropriate responses but, nope. Politics has turned the US and in some case the global response into a goat rope.