Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

I like that Jon's staunch unwillingness to acknowledge the obvious. Welp, here's a twitter video --- PEACEFUL PROTESTS! Anecdotal twittering is always the best way to make your point.

[Hannibal]

Yeah when CNN literally stands in front of a building burning and refers to it as a "peaceful protest", I sure as hell don't trust anyone to the Left of CNN to make that definition. They have mastered the art of provoking responses and then playing the victim when somebody finally is sick of their shit.

I did learn from that Twitter feed that the Lefties in Portland sure hate the mayor there. It just goes to show you what a waste of time it is to try and appease those loons. Better to treat them like the children that they are.

[Hannibal]

My election prediction.

For now.

2020-09-01_11-16-18.png

[lineygoblue]

Looks about right to me, Hanni.

Although I could see Trump losing North Carolina and Wisconsin too.

[Hannibal]

He definitely could. Still a ways to go.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Great stuff on the EC Hanni. I'm not as worried as Liney is about Harris but, I'm not confident that Biden can be anything other than a stand-in president. The platform that is emerging is long on platitudes and short on details. Legislative outcomes during a Biden presidency will depend on how the house and senate shake out. I'm not sure I want a Biden administration to have Ds in control of both chambers. OTH, maybe something, possibly things we won't like among things we do like will make it's way to Biden's desk to sign Although he isn't saying it, that makes universal healthcare or medicare for all a possibility. Bad outcome. Taxes? I don't have a problem with increasing them ...... as long as it's done appropriately and, unless you are an expert at this, it's really hard to understand the nitty gritty details of various tax legislation and their over-all impact on consumer spending, capital investment and corporate hiring and the economy overall. Tricky business that I actually think the R's in Trump's administration have a better handle on than anyone Biden will bring in.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Another little quirk...seen a few educated people put Nebraska's 2nd district in Biden's camp ahead of states like Wisconsin and Arizona. That's the Omaha district.

And while I'm thinking about it...there's almost definitely going to be delayed calls in critical states with a ton more Dems voting by mail or absentees and Republicans voting in-person. Well, it's at least possible. But one state that has a lot of practice counting mail-in votes is Florida. In both 2016 and the Midterms, Florida posted results pretty fast. So that state at least ought to be decided within a few hours of the polls closing. If Biden gets called for winning Florida, then it's almost certainly over for Trump. I expect Trump to spend a lot of time there in October

[Hannibal]

Trump can theoretically win without Florida because of the specific demographics that make it different from the rust belt, but it would be a pretty big long shot.

[lineygoblue]

I don't see any realistic way for Trump to win at this point. He's not going to carry Michigan or Pennsylvania. He's precarious at best in both North Carolina and Florida. He needed all of those last time around. Barring some sort of October Surprise that sways votes his way, its just not happening.

If both the House and Senate go to the D's, and Kamala becomes President as expected, the trouble we're seeing now will seem like choir practice.

[Hannibal]

He's within striking distance in the states that he needs.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just announced that Quest Labs in FL has dumped up to a 5 month back-log of COVID test results this afternoon. It's this sort of shit that makes decision making on test results, %positivity and the like impossible. As most of us have said, drawing conclusions from raw data when it is reported in absolute terms is dangerous.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Current 538 Polling Averages, but take them with a grain of salt as not a lot of polls are post-RNC

Michigan: Biden +7.2
Wisconsin: Biden +6.3
Minnesota: +5.9
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.3
Florida: Biden +4.3
Arizona: Biden +4.0
North Carolina: Biden +1.3
Georgia: Trump +0.4
Texas: Trump +1.5
Iowa: Trump +1.7
Ohio: Trump +1.8

There's not enough polling done for NE-2 but the last one (from July) had Biden up 7. The polling for ME-2 is very, very tight but the margin for the state overall isn't very close.

[iam416]

I more or less agree with Hanni's EC (though I don't think PDJT wins Wisconsin). I also think 538 polling averages are probably skewed a point or two toward Biden.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Personally, I'd like to see Trump make good on his prediction to take New York and spend much of his time canvassing the 5 boroughs.

[iam416]

If, by some miracle of miracles, the B10 plays and PDJT can take some credit for it, then does that change any EC predictions? It probably hurts him M. Those people are Whitmer acolytes and/or breathing a sigh of relief that an OSU beatdown was off the table.