Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

OK, polsters, this is the view from across the pond and in GB:

To have any real chance of re-election, Mr Trump will have to benefit from a pro-Republican bias in the electoral college. In 2016 he attracted 2.9m fewer votes than Hillary Clinton, yet secured 77 more electoral votes and the presidency. That’s because his vote margin was three percentage points higher in Wisconsin, the state that gave him his 270th electoral vote, than his performance nationwide (excluding third parties).

A similar gap will probably reappear this year. Our election model figures that Mr Biden is currently winning about 54.2% of the two-party vote nationwide—a margin of 8.4 points. He is ahead by 4.8 points in Florida, by 5.8 in Pennsylvania and by 6.4 in Wisconsin, the states most likely to determine the outcome in November. Those leads are smaller than his national margin by 3.6, 2.6 and 2.0 points respectively. These relative gaps between Mr Biden’s state and national margins are 14% smaller, on average, than Mrs Clinton’s gaps in those states in 2016. This means that Mr Trump’s relative advantage in the electoral college has shrunk over the past four years, making it slightly harder for him to repeat his previous minoritarian victory. With a victory in the popular vote looking highly unlikely, that leaves Mr Trump with a very difficult road back to the White House.

From the "Checks and Balances" articles of the Economist.

[lineygoblue]

I think the report is spot-on.

Trump has alienated too many swing voters. Dems and R's are always going to have their rock-solid bases, but that's never where elections are won. They're won by people who swing back and forth. Swing voters gave Trump a chance in 2016 because Hillary was an idiot. Swing voters went with Obama because they bought the MSM's selling points, and the MSM successfully painted Mitt and McCain as incompetent boobs. Biden is going to win because he's going to appear to be the likable old grand-pappy to counter Trump's mean-asshole-ish-ness. Kamala will ride Joe's coattails to the WH in about 12-18 months.

I don't see how Trump can win at this point.

[AlabamAlum]

Black Panther is dead. I really hate 2020.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Black Panther is dead. I really hate 2020.

Just saw this. This year fucking sucks

[Whitley]

Black Panther is dead. I really hate 2020.

Yeah, selfishly I was looking forward to BP becoming the next leader of the Avengers. He was a logical choice. They can't get another actor to play BP. But then what happens with BP2?

[THE_WIZARD_]

I think the report is spot-on.

Trump has alienated too many swing voters. Dems and R's are always going to have their rock-solid bases, but that's never where elections are won. They're won by people who swing back and forth. Swing voters gave Trump a chance in 2016 because Hillary was an idiot. Swing voters went with Obama because they bought the MSM's selling points, and the MSM successfully painted Mitt and McCain as incompetent boobs. Biden is going to win because he's going to appear to be the likable old grand-pappy to counter Trump's mean-asshole-ish-ness. Kamala will ride Joe's coattails to the WH in about 12-18 months.

I don't see how Trump can win at this point.

Hillary is an idiot but Biden isn't? Hillary isn't an idiot...she's an evil, dangerous cunt. Biden is an idiot.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Chicago was a safer city when Al Capone ran it...

[lineygoblue]

Capone would be outraged to see Chicago as it is today.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Read this important piece on American sports by Jason Whitlock. I can't believe it hasn't been seen by posters here and commented on. I'd call it a seminal article of it's time.

Whitlock opines that the PRC is manipulating American Sport and by extension American culture as a means of deliberate, planned and organized warfare being waged against America. The PRC's strategic goal is to weaken the US so it is no longer a player on the global economic or political stage. One of the tactical goals in this battle, among others, is to sew racial discord, distrust of government and wide-spread protests using BLM as a tool to do that. Battlefield tools to achieve success are leveraging the liberal/progressive thought from sports and Hollywood figures while promoting them as role models to American youth. Impact in the tactical space is augmented by social media, the racial virtue signaling of progressive corporations, radical politicians and a liberal press.

The entire American sports world—a culture that traditionally celebrates victors, meritocracy, colorblindness, and patriotism—has suddenly immersed itself in black victimization and left-wing radicalism. This immersion threatens to do permanent damage to American culture as a whole. It has certainly undermined national pride. A country that no longer believes in its founding ideals cannot prosper and survive.

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/ameri...tting-america/

[Dr. Strangelove]

After a week of people swearing that Trump is very kind and compassionate, he tweets today that his “unstable niece” has been rightfully mocked and shunned her entire life and that her grandfather never liked her.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I've never liked you either...

[lineygoblue]

Seconded.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Dang, Bama is already up to 1200 cases? And another 150+ employees?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1200-s...ry?id=72699871

I saw this morning that the 7-day rolling average of cases across the US has been declining since around the start of Augustt but in the past week that decline basically halted and there's evidence it could be heading up again. Heading back to school will probably be a big part of that, for better or worse.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Dang, Bama is already up to 1200 cases? And another 150+ employees?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1200-s...ry?id=72699871

I saw this morning that the 7-day rolling average of cases across the US has been declining since around the start of Augustt but in the past week that decline basically halted and there's evidence it could be heading up again. Heading back to school will probably be a big part of that, for better or worse.

It is. I just did a drive through of my data sources that reported through yesterday, August 29th. Two things: (1) Increases across states are not uniform, neither are mitigation measures for school reopenings. It's hard to assign causality for the increases. (2) While national and local headlines declare "rising numbers of new cases as schools reopen," in FL there is no change in the new case percentages by age in the 5-14 yo or 15-24 yo groups. It was 6%/14% of all cases for the 7d period just reported and 6%/14% overall. For whatever reasons, FL's colleges aren't seeing the same kind of headline making new case numbers that Alabama and UNC saw. Better management? Dumb luck? Variance in reporting? No way of telling.

I prefer looking at this in the larger context: (1) As mobility and human contact increases, we should expect increasing new case numbers. (2) The introduction of rapid, POC testing is going to exert upward pressure on new case numbers both nationally and locally. Other health metrics (context) then become really important in assessing the impact of increased new case numbers.

In FL, that is experiencing a small upward trend in new cases, that impact is about zero as all the health metrics (% positives, ED visits, hospital admissions, bed availability) are all downward trending and have been for the last month.

There's mounting evidence globally that school openings with some level of in-person learning can be done safely. There is no question that the social benefits to school age kids of getting them back in the class room outweigh any public health risks. None. Yet, hand-wringing among education officials making school opening decisions continues unabated. I think I have a good idea why. See my post below.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The Sun Sentinel, my local news rag here in S. FL, used a FOIA request to obtain the recordings of the weekly meetings of the Broward County Mayors and their staffs that included PH officials. The meetings, according to the article, were contentious with mayors arguing about what the data they were receiving from PH agencies meant and what steps - increasing or decreasing mitigation measures - should be taken. They also complained about a lack of leadership from the Broward Co. Commission and unwillingness of PH officials, these are doctors, to make recommendations on such mitigation steps. Complaints that no-one wanted to own anything were plentiful.

This entire pandemic response cluster fuck has made me, and others, see how dysfunctional local government can be in a crisis. I think the organizational structure of the S. FL counties contributes. You have county mayors and then municipality/city mayors and all the staff strap-hangers along with that lash-up. Who's in charge? The municipality/city mayors with their ears closest to the ground appear unable to take collective, consistent and reasonable steps across adjacent city boarders given the county's constitutional authority to make such decisions. That the county commissioner, ostensibly the person in charge, appears in these recordings to dither and make last minute, behind closed doors, decisions on mitigation measures that affect all of Broward County's cities, announcing them after 4pm on Fridays, then going home to leave phones in county offices ringing unanswered, is a huge problem. Ill bet this isn't unique to Broward County.