Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

I find it telling that the response to the Leftist craziness isn't that "it's wrong" but rather that "you're worried about nothing." The people who want to defend Wokeness and America is Evil and, ultimately, a complete socialist reordering -- those people can't defend it on the merits so they just slyly pooh-pooh it as it could never happen oblivious to the history of the world.

We could probably agree on quite a few of the woke culture excesses but I'm unlikely to ever view them as important as you and Hanni do. I'm sure if I took the time to read the 1619 Project I could find problems and lies in it. But I'm never going to consider that more of an outrage than, just by example, what Larry Householder is accused of doing. From my standpoint over-focus on culture war garbage distracts me from powerful people mischief. On both sides. That is why I simply don't care about it very much but especially not in a year where we face real fucking problems. You may argue you can easily do both. That's fine. It can be fun to engage in trash talking over one of these topics time to time.

[iam416]

I’m not fully surrendered simply because it’s 2020 and I think otherwise sensible people have bigger fish to fry. However, if the pushback doesn’t come thereafter then the white flag is up.

[Dr. Strangelove]

White House privately warns 11 cities to take aggressive action NOW against covid. Hooray, Columbus and Cleveland both made the list! (little late on Miami though)

Baltimore
Cleveland
Columbus
Indianapolis
Las Vegas
Miami
Minneapolis
Nashville
New Orleans
Pittsburgh
St. Louis

https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/warning-from-birx-11-cities-must-take-coronavirus-aggressive-efforts/

[Dr. Strangelove]

Good news...Arizona looks to be past its peak in the current surge. Daily cases down significantly over the past week. The 7 day average of daily deaths is about 77

Florida is also probably past its peak...maybe? But the new cases there aren't falling as fast. The most worrisome thing to keep an eye on in Florida is that the median age of new cases keeps creeping upwards. In the new cases today it was 42. The 7-day average there is 117

Texas and California are in more trouble. Texas reported almost 200 deaths today. The new cases there aren't slowing down as much as you'd like to see either. California set the single state record today for new cases. Proportionally speaking they aren't as bad off as Texas or Florida but the numbers coming out of there are going to be big for a few weeks.

[iam416]

Ohio is, per capita, still pretty low. Wooot!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Kellyanne Conway says some states didn't listen to the CDC guidelines and reopened too fast, that's why we're having problems now

Donald Trump was literally tweeting LIBERATE MICHIGAN in April the same week the CDC published those guidelines. No single politician pushed harder for states to rush reopening than him. Now the White House wants to blame the governors for paying attention to him?

(Also, I believe to this day, not a single state actually followed the CDC guidelines)

[iam416]

Death wise, depends on the state, but I take notice around 200. Now, for CA and TX probably not as much. 72,000 deaths for a year for either of those states isn’t disastrous.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I wrote about this elsewhere yesterday but, despite the continuation of "dire warnings" progress is being made. It is clear, however, that testing is inadequate and states that are plusing it up, getting it done, then tracing and tracking are doing better than those that don't. It's not an easy task but one that is absolutely required to regain an acceptable degree of control. FL has brought it's R(t) from a high of 1.35 on June 22nd to 1.00 yesterday. Only 12 states are doing better than that. % + remains high and this tends to reflect the exponential progression of a few cases blooming into 100s in a matter of days rather than, holy-shit it's out of control. It is a direct reflection of the degree of community spread but degree of control is more accurately reflected in R(t)

What is an "acceptable" degree of control? It's going to vary because whatever discussions properly involving cost/benefit analysis, i.e., what are the social and economic costs of another lock-down v. the public health benefits, aren't getting a lot of coverage in the press. Officials don't want to talk publicly about how many deaths are "acceptable" but I'd put money on the fact that behind closed doors, those discussions are happening.

I've opined about this here and elsewhere. Yesterday at a forum that I am involved in a poster identifying himself as a scientist working in the CDC during the bush administration posted that a detailed plan to face an H5N1 (Influenza) Pandemic was developed and put in place. All the issues that have arisen as problematic during the current crisis, he claimed, would have probably been addressed if Trump had not dismantled agencies and fired officials who did that work. He said the kind of cost/benefit analysis I posted about as being required was done in detail. When Trump directed all this be shelved and managers of the plans fired, the corporate knowledge was lost. He was surprised Brix and Fauci survived but they did. However, they were marginalized ..... water over the damn. We are where we are.

My take is were not going to make any big moves v. the virus, short of a vaccine. Meanwhile, I believe, like others here and elsewhere where I post, do that the virus is entirely manageable. "Acceptable" management is going to be gauged by IFR as a better measure than CFR (looks better but for public consumption, that's the point). That is because of the emerging reality that the virus has infected up to 10X as many Americans than have been reported. As already posted here, that put's the IFR in the 0.04 to 0.06 range. That's still a lot of folks dying and there's no sugar coating that but the option of shuttering again would be catastrophic and affect the American way of life going forward like no other event in history. So, we await a vaccine and do the best we can with distancing, masking, washing hands. Simple stuff. Importantly, we keep reopening in reasonable steps with appropriate precautions when the facts on the ground - not emotionally charged political pressure - indicate those precautions are warranted. I include schools in that kind of plan.

Progress? Yes. This is a chart that shows social movement in FL based on anonymous cell phone data. It is showing that as case #s increase and public warnings about the implications hit home, people limit mobility. Makes sense. How that reflects masking and distancing indoors isn't measured. If I'm using R(t) and not case #s as a better measure of progress, we're doing OK.

COVID Data.PNG

[Dr. Strangelove]

A Federal judge just ordered Michael Cohen released from prison again to serve his term in home confinement. Said the DOJ was clearly retaliating against him for writing a book about Trump. Also added that in 21 years he had never seen DOJ condition home confinement on the individual writing no books, not using social media, and speaking to no reporters. "How can I take any other inference than that it was retaliatory?"

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-judge-michael-cohen-released-prison-20200723-afkg6tolevabbo6maboig6ik5i-story.html

[lineygoblue]

Ohio minister being required to perform gay marriages or be forced out of business. The minister operates a business that has a venue for ceremonies and Cuyahoga county authorities have told her that she must perform gay marriages, and even write their vows if asked to, even if it goes against her own religious beliefs.

http://www.adfmedia.org/News/PRDetail/11060

[iam416]

That's a brazenly unconstitutional law. Well, for now.

[Hannibal]

It will be brazenly unconstitutional forever. Not that that will stop anybody.

[Hannibal]

LMAO. Twitter hemorrhaging revenue.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/tech/...ngs/index.html

[Ghengis Jon]

If you've got clear skies tonight, look to the NW after the stars come out. Just below the Big Dipper is comet Neowise. Won't be Hale-Bopp so grab your binos. Its at the closest point to the earth tonight.


LocationOfCometNeowiseFromJuly20To26-800x680.jpg

[Dr. Strangelove]

LMAO. Twitter hemorrhaging revenue.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/tech/...ngs/index.html

And yet the stock rose 4%

Because user growth rose to an alltime high. Everyone knew and expected revenue from advertising would be down bigtime. Advertising is one of the first thing all big corporations slashed at the start of the pandemic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-23/twitter-reports-revenue-that-misses-estimates-on-plunge-in-ads