Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

13 cases tied to a Michigan strip club in Romulus. Man, that's a nasty looking place too.

Listen up Michigan Men. If you spent time at the Playhouse Club between June 17 and July 1, the Health Dept would like a word. (lol, good luck with that)

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2020/07/05/coronavirus-cases-playhouse-club-checkers-romulus/5380242002/

[Hannibal]

"I don't think Bubba Wallace has anything to apologize for....You saw the best in NASCAR. They all rallied to Bubba's side. I would be looking to celebrate that kind of attitude rather than being worried it's a hoax" -- Lindsey Graham, on Fox Radio

Hysteria over a garage pull that involves pulling in 15 FBI agents for a major investigation is definitely the best that humanity has to offer.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah, completely disagree. I'm not shuttering the economy for that when long-term care and nursing homes can take targeted precautions to limit exposure. I'm fine with sensible measures, but I find it remarkably bad to implement broad policy to protect an extremely discrete subset that can easily take measures on its own.

But, I appreciate the effort to make the current status sound as bad as possible.

Who's talking about shutting down the economy completely? I'm talking about local mask mandates (communism!) and shutting down indoor bars and clubs if necessary (marxism!). There are very loud, very vocal members of society that oppose even those measures. And if we can't even do masks, then yeah, it's inevitably going to get into nursing homes again.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Gallup's latest approval poll found Trump at 38% but the partisan divide has now reached historic levels. Trump's standing is at 91% with Republicans and only 2% among Democrats. The 89-point gap is apparently the largest in Gallup poll history. (He's at 33% with Independents, FWIW)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/313454/trump-job-approval-rating-steady-lower-level.aspx

[Hannibal]

I'm surprised that he's that high among Republicans but maybe it's a short term effect from the Mt. Rushmore speech. If so, it will wane in a couple of days kind of like the State of the Union speeches.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Who's talking about shutting down the economy completely? I'm talking about local mask mandates (communism!) and shutting down indoor bars and clubs if necessary (marxism!). There are very loud, very vocal members of society that oppose even those measures. And if we can't even do masks, then yeah, it's inevitably going to get into nursing homes again.

When I saw your post, DSL, and talent's response, I thought disconnect.

I did read in your initial post that you thought HC providers unknowingly getting exposed and becoming infected would then lead to the virus getting into "the homes."

Right, we need to nip it in the bud NOW before it becomes so prevalent that nursing home staff, nurses, and doctors can no longer avoid it and unknowingly introduce it into the homes. One would hope that most of those employees are doing everything possible to limit their own exposure.

I don't think there is a high risk of that any longer because lessons learned - most assisted living and LTC facilities now have some of the toughest family and employee access and infection control protocols around..... and for good reason. I know that is the case in FL and, now, I suspect in the NE where this was a big problem in March and April.

Pretty sure talent wanted to point out that the economy should not be shut down because cases might skyrocket in assisted living and LTC facilities.

The risk to the vulnerable (those with co-existing medical conditions and those over 65) comes from the probability of the likelihood of exposure to the virus by virtue of an increasing number of folks having it and a large number of them not knowing they do have it.

There are two ways to mitigate that: (1) Distancing & masking if you want be out and about, (2) sheltering - and I have plenty of friends in my age group who are doing that or with only minimum time spent out and about.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah, there was a brief, beautiful window between Memorial Day and the second weekend of June where I actually got to enjoy restaurants and brewpubs again but no more. I haven't 'dined in' anywhere, even outdoors, since June 14th.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I just listened to the entirety of Governor Desantis' news conference today. There's appears to me to be a shift in the advice he's getting from his advisory team of PH officials if I'm getting the drift of what he said today. Potentially a subtle shift is underway in how the state of FL should go about dealing with SARS-CoV-2 and C-19.

He downplayed the increasing case #s in FL by recognizing some of the math inherent in the presentation of them. If you are going to test 4000/d in March due to CDC guidelines to test/limited resources and get a 5% positive rate or 200 new cases and then test 50,0000/day and get a 12% positive rate or 6000 new cases/d in June, of what significance is that 30 fold rise in new case #s? The press will jump all over that, right? Not so fast ........

That 30 fold increase is possibly of no significance at all. Two factors pertain: (1) it is not a mathematical anomaly that the more tests that are run the more infections will be detected. We know this here. I'm not sure the nay-sayers and hand wringers in the press writing about this do. (2) in 4 months with community spread present there is going to be a larger pool of infected folks you're testing and it follows the % +s will also rise. That's always made sense to me but to hear a Governor acknowledge and explain it in a public forum is both a first and encouraging. In contrast, I do't hear Fauci talking about this at all ...... he just keeps warning of the consequences of the recent "surge" he is correctly calling it as opposed to a 2nd wave.

Desantis also placed emphasis on Case Fatality Rate, CFR and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). These have different denominators and therefore different values. You'll recall the denominator in CFR is # of confirmed cases. In IFR, it is the number of estimated infections based on an assumed disease prevalence. Experts seem to agree if there are 1000 confirmed infections, there are probably 5-10X that many infected persons, or as many as 10,000 actual infections in the region being tested. This is another thing that several of us her are paying attention to instead of the rising case #s.

In FL, the CFR is 0.018 (1.8%); the IFR is estimated to be 0.0018 (about 1/10th of 1%). Both of these values are consistent with what I'm seeing in the scientific literature that list CFRs and IFRs for countries around the globe. The point is that the lethality of the virus is exceedingly low globally and in FL. It varies. For example New York's was pretty high at around 5 for a while and Italy's is also high.

You can't however dismiss that there exists a continuum of symptoms and disease impact on a patient between no symptoms and death Desantis acknowledged. He went on to note that the state's median age for new +s is 36. In recognized spots were the positivity rate is above 15%, the median age for new +s is 25. It has been as low as 21 in several counties. There's an important point here that relates to the continuum issue - this very young cohort not only has a near zero CFR, but also symptoms are mild in nearly 100% of the cases. There are outliers and don't be fooled by heavy press coverage of these or even mention of them by supposed expert talking heads on TV.

Desantis then introduced MDs and hospital administrators at the table and invited them to make a couple of points he wanted made. One of them from the Hospital Administrator of the Hospital System that serves Gainsville and Orlando (That's Central FL where UF, Universal Studios, Sea World Park and Disney are located) ..... there is no crisis given increasing case #s. Not even close. If you need care for non-COVID related medical issues, the hospitals, clinics and EDs are safe. There's been an uptick in people delaying care because of the COVID fear factor generated by the press. Patients are presenting with much worse symptoms and therefore worse outcomes than necessary. If they had sought care earlier in the course of their symptoms things might have turned out for the better. Strokes and MIs are killers if you wait.

Some will say Desantis is moving the goal posts. No he's not. The information is getting better and so is the analysis of it. Values that were, first, all we had and 2nd perceived to be important to consider in judging the course of the pandemic in February and March have changed in the 4-5 months that have passed.

It's nice to see a calm, well reasoned state of the pandemic in FL. I think it presents a paradigm shift in how I perceive the state of FL is looking at the data and recommending a continuation of reopenings based on a county's circumstances. Case #s are of little importance out of context and without relevant data to make a full analysis meaningful. I felt his presentation was a bit of legal cut block to the legs of the hysterical press. Worked for me.

While he didn't point to Dade County and the recent restaurant and gym closures, that county does have indicators of the highest level of community spread in the state. Its well above the 10% state set goal of % new +s (about 17%) and apparently is pressing the limits of hospital systems in the county to manage both COVID and non-COVID care. The shortage is in staff, not in bed space, supplies or medications. Still, my take on Mayor Gimenez is that he's a knee jerk artist prone to bend to political pressures and meet out punishment on the basis of who gives him shit about his decision making given the emergency powers he holds during COVID.

I'm beginning to wonder if at the state level there is an emerging plan to do little more than keep your hospital's viable, react if there is a threat to them, protect the vulnerable and get the younger crowd to distance and mask when they are out and about. IOW, knock off the "Party Like it's 1999," shame the anti-maskers and rule breakers and get human behaviors under control. It's possible if not likely by doing that some level of minimal level of control of community spread can be achieved such that we can just ride this thing out with minimal further disruption to the state's economy and educational systems. I'm not ready to endorse this approach but I'm watching. Frankly, there's not any reasonable choices. Shuttering businesses isn't reasonable in most cases. If new case #s tick down with the messaging and steps being taken in Dade Co., if CFR holds steady or drops over the next 2 weeks, I could be all-in with this.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The US Supreme Court refuses to lift a lower's court's order blocking construction of the Keystone pipeline. Hard to know why because there was no explanation or any registered dissents. The company will have to wait for a win in appeals court now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-06/keystone-pipeline-stays-blocked-in-u-s-supreme-court-order

[iam416]

Buchanan:

I think your ultimate conclusion is correct re riding it out. I do think we’ll need local ordinances in spots, but with minimal effort we’ll be ok.

[Dr. Strangelove]

In response to it being disclosed that the Kushner family and lots of Trumpworld friends and associates got PPP loans, the White House is circulating this story. The law firm that Biden founded got a loan.

Biden left the firm in 1971 and has no financial ties or interests to it any more. And it's unclear how Joe Biden could've possibly pressured the Trump Treasury Dept to give this law firm a loan in the first place.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-founded-law-firm-company-pelosi-ppp-funds

[Ghengis Jon]

An accurate opinion piece (or warning) by former Republican rep Charlie Dent. I wonder if he's positioning himself for 2024.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/opini...ent/index.html

[iam416]

The GOP will rebound for no other reason than that the Progressives will wildly overreach. Hell they ARE wildly overreaching. I mean, in 2008 the GOP was at a far lower point than now.

PDJT's problem isn't minority support; it's suburban support. That's where he's going to lose big and that will lead to him losing big.

What the Rs need is someone who is roughly in line with PDJT's mix of populist and conservative ideas, but who isn't PDJT.

2020 is merely a recall election. I mean, we're going to elect Joe Biden -- an candidate his own supporters actively want to keep shut up in the basement.

2024 will be the real battle. That will be your choice between socialism and, fundamentally, America is evil vs. wherever the Rs are at.

[Hannibal]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/05/opini...les/index.html

#CANCELHAMILTON

[iam416]

Nothing to see here. I think it's clear we are going to purge the so-called "Founding Fathers." And I wish I were being sarcastic. Fortunately, our history is just a trivial thing.