Tweet
More COVID stuff if you are not already sick of it ........
Below is a link to a specific page for FL from RT.Live that I just started noticing. About 2 weeks ago, this group updated it's model to include what they call an implied infection curve. You can get to it for your state by clicking on "details."
The upshot of these "details" is that this group of analysts alleges it improves the accuracy of R(t) and gives a better picture of infection rates/virus control or lack thereof. Statistically it probably does. For example, you can now see via the implied infection curve what these analysts think the actual number of positives in a days worth of testing v. the number or reported positives. But how useful is R(t) or any of it's variants in shaping PH policy?
All of this made me search for a resource to review in my mind what R(t) is actually telling us before I drew any conclusions from the implied infections curve. Wow! I found an excellent article linked below. This may be one of the best articles I've read on the tricky business of using C-19 data to form PH policy, i.e., open/close shops, restaurants, bars? Open schools? It's good. I recommend a read.
Bottom line: It's hard but, it can be done ..... except not in the hands of the lay press or the public. It takes disciplined epidemiologists to weigh all the factors, draw conclusions and make solid PH recommendations to officials making decisions about implementing or not implementing them. Full stop.
We can get all depressed about rising case numbers and draw conclusions about what this means ...... and probably be hugely wrong. Sure, we can get a glimpse of what it means for FL's case #s exponentially rising but there are so many confounding factors that, in general, we, and certainly not the press, have a huge potential to be fucking way off base. To the point, there is no way that looking at this through our untrained eye and think, yeah, this cohort are the bad guys, these guys are good or do this or do that. We're going to be wrong most of the time.
Hoping Governor Desantis and all the county officials in the state of FL making decisions about openings and closings, this or that mitigation measure are getting good input from trained PH epidemiologists who are reading the currently applicable literature. So far, I think they are. Likewise for elsewhere nationally
Below is a link to a specific page for FL from RT.Live that I just started noticing. About 2 weeks ago, this group updated it's model to include what they call an implied infection curve. You can get to it for your state by clicking on "details."
The upshot of these "details" is that this group of analysts alleges it improves the accuracy of R(t) and gives a better picture of infection rates/virus control or lack thereof. Statistically it probably does. For example, you can now see via the implied infection curve what these analysts think the actual number of positives in a days worth of testing v. the number or reported positives. But how useful is R(t) or any of it's variants in shaping PH policy?
All of this made me search for a resource to review in my mind what R(t) is actually telling us before I drew any conclusions from the implied infections curve. Wow! I found an excellent article linked below. This may be one of the best articles I've read on the tricky business of using C-19 data to form PH policy, i.e., open/close shops, restaurants, bars? Open schools? It's good. I recommend a read.
Bottom line: It's hard but, it can be done ..... except not in the hands of the lay press or the public. It takes disciplined epidemiologists to weigh all the factors, draw conclusions and make solid PH recommendations to officials making decisions about implementing or not implementing them. Full stop.
We can get all depressed about rising case numbers and draw conclusions about what this means ...... and probably be hugely wrong. Sure, we can get a glimpse of what it means for FL's case #s exponentially rising but there are so many confounding factors that, in general, we, and certainly not the press, have a huge potential to be fucking way off base. To the point, there is no way that looking at this through our untrained eye and think, yeah, this cohort are the bad guys, these guys are good or do this or do that. We're going to be wrong most of the time.
Hoping Governor Desantis and all the county officials in the state of FL making decisions about openings and closings, this or that mitigation measure are getting good input from trained PH epidemiologists who are reading the currently applicable literature. So far, I think they are. Likewise for elsewhere nationally
Comment