Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah. I don’t get the masks = my rights are violated. But it’s got huge legs across the US.

Go and look at some of the replies on Governor Abbott's twitter feed to his announcement of mandatory masks and you will lose whatever remaining faith you had in humanity.

[AlabamAlum]

I gave up on humanity after last years game vs Clemson.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I gave up on humanity after last years game vs Clemson.

Curiously enough I found that game restorative

This week the tune has changed dramatically both on Fox and from Trump himself. He pushed wearing masks in an interview yesterday. Steve Doocey and Hannity both advocated wearing them. All big shifts from just a couple weeks ago.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Republican Governors in Sun Belt states that are now getting it the worst were calling up the White House last week and telling them: look, we have GOT to be able to issue mask orders to make this thing more manageable. Our base is going to KILL US if we do that with them thinking Trump's opposed and have nearly everyone on Fox mocking the idea. Trump has to say it on camera with his own mouth and not just send out Fauci or Birx. Because there was a sea change this week.

[AlabamAlum]

Restorative? You have friends/family who are Clemson grads?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Restorative? You have friends/family who are Clemson grads?

Hell no I hate those fuckers.

[Hannibal]

Statewide mask mandate in Texas, any public space in a county with 20 or more cases. Wow

Unless it’s a BLM event. The virus has been genetically engineered not to spread at those.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[AlabamAlum]

Hell no I hate those fuckers.

Then why would it be restorative??

[Dr. Strangelove]

Then why would it be restorative??

A mere jab and a jape, old boy

[AlabamAlum]

A mere jab and a jape, old boy

Ahh. I thought you were a lover of the assclown Dabo. I was about to take by the scruff and thrash you like the brigand you are.

[Jeff Buchanan]

DSL, IRT FL's GR, % positive numbers. I can't dismiss it and won't.

What I do know is the respiratory symptoms of COVID-19 typically appear, on average, 5-6 days after exposure, but may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure, according to the CDC.

So, there's a lag. As well, there's going to be a lag in the effectiveness of mitigation measures taken in the tri-county region of S. FL where the surge in new case numbers are the greatest.

There is a huge, on-going debate in FL about how hospital systems are reporting admission data and critical bed (ICU) occupancy data. The press is charging an independent agency tracking this data has x results while the state web site either does not have these details or what they do publish is Y (significantly less than X). Journalists are alleging the state is under-reporting admission data and therefore the severity of the impact of reopening on hospital systems.

We both know that the narrative is "opened too soon ...... these are the consequences of that foolishness .... now do something." Of course none of the critics has a clue of what is sensible to do and instead defaults to the, we need to shut everything down again meme. Fuck that. So wrong.

Here's what I think.

• Conclusions being drawn for most, if not all COVID related data are unreliable at present (figures lie and lairs figure applies).
• The data and the conclusions being drawn from them have become politicized and probably inaccurate.
• The USPHS charged with independently reporting infectious disease has been eviscerated over the years and currently lacks the resources to perform it's reporting functions;
• The USPH S has therefore been replaced with other data reporting mechanisms - all of them, widely unreliable/politicized. Trustworthy? I'm becoming more skeptical day by day.
• Data analysis regarding infectious disease is a complex and difficult skill and it is being compromised at multiple levels for a number of purposes - none having to do with the PH.

Here's how I'm approaching this personally:

• I'm supposedly in a high risk group over 65 (I'm 72). Although I may overestimate my wellness, I believe my disease risk is more like that of an under 50 than an over 65.
• I adjust my behavior accordingly. This, to me, is a personal decision. What's right for me may not be for others.
• I don't give a shit about what others do. I can't control them. I can control what I do. I properly wear an N95 equivalent mask and distance per guidelines both local and federal.
• I avoid situations where there are a lot of stupid people doing stupid things. OTH, I stay in my lane. There is no sense in trying to make others conform to I how I behave.

Here's what I really think about all this:

• I think that C-19 presents a much lower risk in terms of disease burden - as I have previously described that term - than the officials or experts we hear from think that it is.
• I read the medical literature and scientific research. I believe my position on this is entirely defensible.
• I talk with my medical friends who are generally intelligent, reasonable and very well informed.
• I'd say 75% of them agree with me; 90% don't yet have an opinion or agree with me.
• From my study and interaction with other medical professionals, it's around 70/30 I'm right.
• I am confident that CFR - one of the best measures of disease impact and control - is probably less than 2%. Some 5 to 10 people will die for every 1,000 people with COVID-19.
• The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge at a CFR around 0.5–1% - this is difficult number to ascertain during a pandemic. Easier in retrospective studies.
• Whatever, it is fucking low so, lets call off all the theatrics over this.

In addressing the COVID infection surge, my hope is that officials don't do stupid things based on political expedience/correctness, like shut down whole sectors of the economy instead of targeting hotpots within them. If my hope is not founded and they do shut shit down based on fear not facts, those facts defining a lower risk posed by SARS-CoV-2, then as talent has posted, "ergo we are fucked."

[*JD*]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1279065004101324800?s=20

With the epic shit-show he is at doing his job, I'm cool with him golfing.

[Ghengis Jon]

The latest ad from the Lincoln Project:

https://lincolnproject.us/video/betrayed/

[THE_WIZARD_]

Happy Independence Day to all you rioters and looters! Hopefully you can torch some more buildings and destroy more of our historical statues in the process to commemorate our nation's birth! Should be a hoot!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just a quick, well as quick as I can be, note on C-19. Just read a depressing piece in the Economist detailing where the world is with this thing. The central theme is that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Journalists have depicted the surge in various places that had control of the spread as measured by GR and R(t) at or below zero, particularly the US, as a "second wave." The article asserts it isn't a second wave, the world never got through the first one. We will have to adapt to it's lingering and lethal presence no matter how low the CFR actually is or the disease burden turns out to be going forward.

Even after the world reaches some grim numbers of cases and deaths by the end of July, a startling 90% of the globe's population will still be vulnerable and that assumes the 10% who have been infected have some sort of humeral immunity developed in the form of anti-bodies.

But, adaptation has already begun. Treatments are emerging, not curative but, ones that reduce morbidity, mortality and improve survival. Care management of the least sick to the gravely ill is much improved which allows the world's HC systems to cope. Supply chains once faltering seem to be running more smoothly than 2 months ago. There is plenty of food, essentials and, if you have money to spend, even consumer goods to meet increasing demand. Federal banks have pumped trillions into their respective economies. The hope is that this will bridge economies to sustained growth and increased employment to an effective vaccine that, it is believed, will bring community spread down. A return to some level of normalcy will be quick to follow.

Meanwhile, if you look at things through the lens of otherwise healthy, affluent citizens of developed economies learning how to deal with what amounts to little more than minor inconvenience, things pretty much suck. It's easy to become despondent about the future. The risk of bad outcomes occurring has increased. Still, those are just unrealized risks and there is room for optimism. I believe the next few months on the C-19 scene and into mid-September are going to be difficult. The media will continue to bang the drum of bad news, new record daily case numbers and more .... and if they can scrape some shocking shit up, you can bit they will.

My advice is to ignore it, do what you can to do your part in preventing community spread and keep your family and friends safe. Know, with confidence that at some point the outlook will brighten. That is because the human race is fuck-ton smarter than some single cell, RNA virus both, right now, engaged in a battle of survival.

Don't count mankind out.

Happy birthday America.