Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Tom W]

It's not just "institutions" and public figures. Just try to call bullshit when race is brought into anything. For example, it's shocking how violently hypocritical Craft Beer fans - who are predominantly white middle class and bearded guys, can become.

[lineygoblue]

I see where MinneaNoPlace wants to defund their police department and create some stupidly conceived 'public safety' department, made up of social workers and so on.

I can just see a future 911 call now …(Caller) "Hello, someone just killed my next door neighbor" …. (Operator)… "Ok, we'll send out a social worker right away" …

I used to think that places like New York, Detroit, and Chicago were the most stupidly run cities in America. I now hand that title to MinneaNoPlace.

[iam416]

That's part of what I'm saying. If those cities want social workers responding to DV calls instead of police then that's their local perogative. I have zero skin in that game. I get a say in how my community policies, but I don't give a flying fuck how Minneapolis does it. They can arm their police with squirt guns for all I care.

[Tom W]

Detroit will certainly demand a recount.

[iam416]

heh

[Dr. Strangelove]

I see where MinneaNoPlace wants to defund their police department and create some stupidly conceived 'public safety' department, made up of social workers and so on.

I can just see a future 911 call now …(Caller) "Hello, someone just killed my next door neighbor" …. (Operator)… "Ok, we'll send out a social worker right away" …

I used to think that places like New York, Detroit, and Chicago were the most stupidly run cities in America. I now hand that title to MinneaNoPlace.

Two great cities and one shithole. Rule of thumb here is that everything in Michigan sucks.

[Dr. Strangelove]

That's part of what I'm saying. If those cities want social workers responding to DV calls instead of police then that's their local perogative. I have zero skin in that game. I get a say in how my community policies, but I don't give a flying fuck how Minneapolis does it. They can arm their police with squirt guns for all I care.

Your points in the previous post are well-taken. It's just difficult, if you want less aggressive policing, to make that happen when one party doesn't want to do it and the other party really, really doesn't want to do it. But hey, New Yorkers eventually got Bloomberg to end "stop and frisk", so not impossible.

[Dr. Strangelove]

62% say the protests are legitimate; 28% say they are mainly unlawfulness. Last night Trump posted a letter from his former personal attorney that called the protesters "terrorists"

73% of Independents say Trump is making racial tensions worse. Overall Trump approval numbers have soured among Independent considerably.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-results-analysis-15/

[iam416]

It's just difficult, if you want less aggressive policing, to make that happen when one party doesn't want to do it and the other party really, really doesn't want to do it.

Well, the Rs have no say in most cities. They don't matter. The Ds do.

To your point, on the federal level, both parties matters. If you can't do this locally -- which is where it should be done -- then I'm not sure what to say. If the Ds aren't going to listen the voices of AA communities then there's nothing that will be done.

We can talk about reforming drug offenses or criminal sentencing on a state and federal level. But policing is local.

Anyway, I'm just re-saying what I alread said. In less than 50,000 words, so I'm still ahead of Buchanan on the day.

[AlabamAlum]

On this forum, ‘AA’ means one thing: AlabamAlum.

It does not mean any of the following:

1. African American
2. All American
3. American Airlines
4. Ann Arbor
5. Aortic Aneurysm
6. Alcoholics Anonymous
7. AA battery
8. Any of the 3,000 other things that people call “AA”.

Final warning.

[iam416]

You mean Alabam"Alum"?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff, the decline of the positive test rate has gotten very flat since mid-May. That despite testing more and more and more people every day. What does that suggest to you? I'm not saying DIRE CONSQUENCES btw. It could mean transmissibility has started slowly rising again OR it could also mean that there's a certain level of transmissibility we're just going to have to accept until there's a vaccine or herd immunity develops. And we've hit it.

I'll comment but a lot of what I'm going to say I've posted already. Sorry, it's not a simple yes or no answer to your question - is transmissibility increasing?

1. The "Transmissibility" you are referring to is R(e) or as I've referred to it here R(t). It's helpful to understand R(t) in terms of R(O) .......R(O) or R naught is a value that represents the point in an outbreak of a disease where there is zero immunity to it. A high calculated initial R(O) represents a highly infective virus - e.g., the R(0) for measles was around 12; for SARS-CoV-2 its thought to be somewhere between 2 and 3.5. Most epidemiologists I've read do not think initial values in the US, or in most other countries as well, were correct so, there are lots of numbers out there. I posted a link to a research paper that, IMO, calculated by state the most accurate R(O) values available. They varied from a low of < 1.0 in KS to high of 7 in NY.

2. R(O) changes as the rate of disappearance of cases by recovery or death, the first of which is depends on the time a person is infective. At the start of the arrival of an infective virus, R(t) = R(O). R(t) will decrease over time with recovery or death in the population. These are always negative factors to R(t). Mitigation and containment measures affect R(t) and PH officials hope these are also negative factors in calculating R(t), Human behavior in the from of compliance with these measures will affect R(t) as both positive and negative factors.

3. You have the link and I assume you have seen the data from R(t)Live. I've posted references to this on multiple occasions to counter the argument that rising case numbers and/or deaths equate to increased values of transmissibilty. An increase in R(t) does not necessarily imply that mitigation and containment measures aren't working or compliance with them by the population isn't working. It's also difficult - wrong is the operative word - to generalize R(t). The value is much more accurate and meaningful when it is expressed regionally. R(t)Live does it by state.

4. From the data displayed at R(t)Live, I posted yesterday that 14 states had R(t) values greater than 1 - meaning the virus is spreading. Today there are 11. FL (1.05) is among those. I went through the math of what that means in terms of actual numbers previously. R(t) by itself does not mean that, in general, the virus isn't contained at an acceptable level - are care resources being strained? Do we know where the hot-spots of spreads are and can we ID new cases and trace contacts?

5. The answer to your question - is transmissibility increasing? - is it depends on what state you want to know about. Since we really want to know if increased transmissibility signals that current mitigation and containment policies need to be changed, PH officials, in advising policy makers, look at other data to determine the answer to that. Everyone posting here should know what that data is and how it might apply to the formulation of PH policy going forward.

6. I can look at FL's "other" data on their PH web site and make my own judgement on whether or not current mitigation and containment policies in FL (or my county) need to be changed based on a state wide R(t) value of 1.04. No need to go through that. All I need to say is that I agree with FL's state wide PH policy guidance (most of the state is moving to Phase II, PB, Broward and Dade COs are not) and am OK with the current situation in the tri-county region of S. FL for now. I do think that all the counties in the S. FL region could move to Phase II as the "other" data I'm seeing suggests it's counties are better off than some who are moving to Phase II. PB Co. has already asked to do so. I expect Broward will do that by early next week. Dade NLT the 22nd

7. IOW, yes, in FL, anyway, and I suspect in most other similarly populated states/counties, there's an acceptable level of transmissibility that is going to accompany re-opening.

[Dr. Strangelove]

One place where there could be a problem is Arizona. There's been a fairly decent jump in cases the past two weeks. At first you might just say, yeah, they are testing a lot more people. That's why. But at this article below points out, three weeks ago the positive test rate was 5%. Two weeks ago it was 6%. Last week it was 9%.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/06/05/coronavirus-arizona-update-june-5-24-332-cases-1-012-known-deaths/3144989001/

This drew out a comment from someone that I honestly hadn't considered. If you already mentioned it Jeff, sorry. We've talked about the warmer weather making it harder for the virus to spread...but people in Arizona and Vegas and Florida and Texas will spend a lot more time INDOORS in the summer. Idle speculation.

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[AlabamAlum]

Jeff, DSL, hello.

[Jeff Buchanan]

AZ R(t) - 1.03 - is similar to FL's 1.04. Skeptics of re-opening strategies, esp. those that are really liberal, are going to find state and city circumstances where PH officials should, maybe, think about appropriate advisories.

I'm not going to try to advance the idea that open the fucking doors, back to normal. I don't think anyone here thinks that is the way to go. Don't assign me to that category of idiots - and they are out there - that thinks this thing is over ..... PARTY.

I have a Zoom group that gathers for "cocktails' several times during the week. Friday is one of those gatherings. It's a diverse group. I'd say most of them are reluctant to venture out to public spaces like restaurants and definitely not to gyms. Comments made today from participants that live in Orlando, Naples (S. FL's W. coast) and NYC were revealing. The two former are Trump bastions, the later is anti-Trump in a big way. I found the participants that resided in Trump bastions comments disturbing. Mask wearing is less that 25%, restaurants, bars and beaches are open and packed with no indication that social distancing is being applied by proprietors or patrons and there are plenty of R's there, loyal to Trump, that still think this is a hoax to bring Trump down. None of the participants are likely Rs and if I measured their comments correctly, they are strongly anti-Trump Ds. So, take that into consideration. In NYC, per participants living there, compliance with masks and social distancing approaches > 90%. Bars are not yet open and neither are restaurants although some are if outdoor seating is available. Parks are open.

Let's look at the numbers: Naples is in Collier Co. Every metric is upward trending since re-opening. That includes % +, 8.6%, GR > 10%, ED and admissions data and new cases. I'd bet that there is local spread of the virus in Naples and some of that has to do with resident behaviors. OTH, NY state has one of lowest R(t) values in the nation (.80) the state has a downward trending new case rate (and the downward slope is steep). NYC (collection of 5 counties/burros) has a growth rate of 2.17%.

You have to look regionally and as granular as possible down to city level. You tell me who's paying attention to this and who isn't?