Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Your statements are so ludicrous that it's impossible to take them serious and I know you certainly don't.

It'd be like me saying Bear Bryant couldn't outcoach Will Muschamp. It's just not plausible. Now, change it to Kirby Smart and we're getting somewhere.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I can look at S. FL's COVID data at a detailed level - beyond anything that GA has for example, at their PH web site. I think the S. FL region, which accounts for 3 counties and cites ranging in size from 10s of thousands to over 2m and population densities from 100+ to 1400+/sq mi., is a good representation of many other regions across the US. So, there are meaningful things to be learned from FL about re-opening 2-3w in.

Recall that FL had an initial R(0) of 2.5-3.0 (depending on whose calculated values you choose to look at). R(t) as of 6/3 was 0.99 that means mitigation and containment measures state wide brought the infectivity of the virus - the number of people 1 infected person will infect - from 3 people to < 1. When you can hold that statistical value to <1, the virus is considered contained (not eradicated). Four weeks ago, before reopening FL's R(t) was 0.92. 6w ago it was 0.82. I would say reopening has caused an increase in the spread of the virus (I could go through the math of what this means in terms of actual numbers but you already know how to do this b/c I showed you). But wait ...... one has to be careful in drawing conclusions from any data set.

Increases or decreases in virus spread are not uniform across counties and that's as granular as I can see but I know that city data is available just not posted on FL's PH web site. The percent positive number for the state (< 4%), varies across counties ranges from 0 to 10%+. Surprisingly, that %+ of 10%+ is not in the most densely populated county (Broward which contains the city of FTL where I reside is) or Dade, 2nd most densely populated county. It's in Palm Beach Co. Who knows.

FL has done a lot of testing both RT-PCR (the swab) and Anti-body (IgM) or serology testing. While this kind of information is not available publicly, I feel confident that FL PH officials know, based on both kinds of testing, where hot spots are. These are probably the usual places, prisons, elder care facilities and you can now add migrant housing and food packing and processing plants around the entire state. I also feel confident that these hot-spots are being monitored with contact-tracing being done.

Broward's %+ is around 5% and Dade's around 7%. If I were an official in Palm Beach CO, my hair wouldn't be on fire but I'd be posting public service alerts asking residents to pay more attention to social distancing and masking. This is how this is supposed to work - haven't heard anything but a news article shoed up this afternoon on upticks in new cases in PB Co. with a rejoinder that it's too early to tell. It's not. I can see it.

Desantis announced today that FL is moving to Phase II in all counties except Palm Beach, Broward and Dade. What this means is that Bars, Movie Theaters and Bowling Alleys, among others, that are green-lighted for Phase II can open with some restrictions and other places in green-lighted counties, already sort-of re-opened, can now operate at 100% capacity with distancing and masks still required.- I'm fine with that because I can see the data behind that announcement - why some counties can move ahead to Phase II but some, the S. Fl tri-county regions, shouldn't ..... yet. I like it.

The bottom line is that FL appears to be doing this re-opening thing exactly right. While R(t) has climbed since reopening and approaching 1.0, other data like %+ tests, deaths, hospital admissions, ED stats are either downward trending or holding steady. Progressively more robust re-opening CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED if we want to use FL as an example

TBF, the reporting on this in FL print and broadcast media has been pretty good with just new case #s and deaths reported along with rates/trends...... I claim responsibility for this improved reporting b/c I wrote both of the major papers here to get their shit together, stop the fear mongering and report stuff correctly. Huzzah!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Today's CNBC polls ought to concern Ds (or anyone that wants to see PDJT lose).

Those polls show Biden ahead in North Carolina but losing by 4 in Pennsylvania. Ahead in Florida by more than Michigan. Can't say I'm buying all that.

Nate Silver gives this particular pollster a C-

[iam416]

Well, if you dismiss the polls -- and perhaps you should -- then they won't give you any pause. I'd prefer to see more decisive leads in the B10 states. I'm not particularly confident that Biden is going to hold his Florida advantage.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mattis breaks silence. Rips Trump. Declares him a threat to the Constitution

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/james-mattis-denounces-trump-protests-militarization/612640/

[Cody_Russell]

Polls are worthless until early November. Too much can happen in 5 months.

538 Clinton vs Trump in key swing states 06/08/16:
Arizona - Trump +1.9 ...
Florida - Clinton +1.4
Michigan - Clinton +7.9
North Carolina - Trump +1.8
Ohio - Clinton +0.7
Pennsylvania - Clinton +4.1
Wisconsin - Clinton +7.4

... and Clinton's margin grew much wider mid June through July 2016.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Talent-

It's as if Fox News heard your doubts and answered your prayers. LOL

Wisconsin
Biden +9

Ohio
Biden +2

Arizona
Biden +5

Also that Arizona poll had Kelly beating McSally by 13 points. That's two or three double digit poll leads for Kelly in the past week I think.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Polls are worthless until early November. Too much can happen in 5 months.

538 Clinton vs Trump in key swing states 06/08/16:
Arizona - Trump +1.9 ...
Florida - Clinton +1.4
Michigan - Clinton +7.9
North Carolina - Trump +1.8
Ohio - Clinton +0.7
Pennsylvania - Clinton +4.1
Wisconsin - Clinton +7.4

... and Clinton's margin grew much wider mid June through July 2016.

On June 3, 2016 the RCP average was

Clinton: 40.2
Trump 37.8

The final RCP average before election day was (note the margin virtually unchanged):

Clinton: 45.3
Trump: 42.0

The actual results were (RCP had the margin off by about 1%):

Clinton: 48.0
Trump: 45.9

The RCP average as of 6/3/2020:

Biden: 49.9
Trump: 42.1

One other difference between Biden now and Hillary in 2016...at no point has Trump come close to overtaking Biden in the average so far. Trump was actually leading Hillary after the Republican Convention for a brief time.

Maybe things will change...I don't know...but Biden's lead has consistently been bigger than Hillary's, the gap hasn't changed as much as it did in 2016, and Trump is now a known quantity instead of a rebellious outsider

[Hannibal]

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that today’s polls don’t mean anything, but I think that we could see big movent in one direction or another as this year’s events sink in further.

[iam416]

That’s true. If the Ds are smart they’ll stick to vacuous virtue signaling. But Biden will have to make concrete proposals. There’s a real risk there. BUT, he doesn’t seem inclined to excuse the bad guys. America is pretty much behind the protests, against the shitfucks and in favor of using the National Guard to restore order.

[Dr. Strangelove]

That’s true. If the Ds are smart they’ll stick to vacuous virtue signaling. But Biden will have to make concrete proposals. There’s a real risk there. BUT, he doesn’t seem inclined to excuse the bad guys. America is pretty much behind the protests, against the shitfucks and in favor of using the National Guard to restore order.

Will he?? LOL, Biden seems quite willing to cede tv time to Trump and Trump is thrilled to have it, too ego-maniacal to realize that sometimes less is more.

Today the Press Secretary compared Trump's March to the Church with Churchill inspecting damage during the Blitz or Bush throwing out the first pitch after 9/11. That's the level of intelligence, perspective, and self-awareness we can expect out of this White House. A small room in the basement of this church was briefly on fire. The clergy who actually run the church have denounced Trump. Yet he's trying to sell that moment as his refusal to surrender to terror comparable to 9/11.

There's a good chance it doesn't change a single vote but boy oh boy...General Mattis' statement is pretty amazing. Trump's former Sec of Defense is declaring him a threat to constitutional order and his current Secretary went on tv to explicitly disagree with any Insurrection Act order. I think it's highly likely plenty of people in the Pentagon still communicate with Mattis on a regular basis and he has a lot of inside scoop on what's going on there and something happened this past weekend that freaked him out more than anything Trump's suggested this far.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Marion Cobretti >> Dalton

The Cobra was a badass...but he was chasing his now ex-wife in fleabag motels...advantage D Dalton...

[THE_WIZARD_]

Johnny Utah was an effeminate version of AJ McCarron.

Correct

[THE_WIZARD_]

Bodhi > Dalton
Johnny Utah > Bodhi

Fairly straight-forward to any sentient being.

Johnny U is disqualified as a fake tOSU player...

[Hannibal]

I can't forgive Dalton for keeping his BMW under wraps for the entire movie and then wrecking it in the final scene without even driving it.