Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

...

[THE_WIZARD_]

Also, if you’re not watching the History Channel special on U.S. Grant you’re missing out. It’s a great refresher on how he’s one of truly great Americans.

Agreed but southern fucks like AA now have a bounty on your melon. Only thing worse would be you adorizing Sherman...

[THE_WIZARD_]

This is a good question. I've read two journal articles on this, one of them indirectly applicable. Both of them think that it's not so much "reinfection" as it is a continuation of the COVID-19 symptoms. Administration testing errors for RT-PCR are possible as a cause for negative tests during convalescence. Other factors include the complexity of the process by which SARS-COV-2 viral load recedes. In the case of the re-infection of sailors on the TR, we'd have to know by what methods they were re-tested. RT-PCR is highly sensitive but not very specific. It can red-light on other corona-viruses so, it is known to have some false + reliability issues but not that many issues with false -. There are several other testing kits widely used now. Some of them are not at all reliable.

One other case study in Britain I read involved a 71 year old fit MD who contracted the virus along the way about 3 months ago. He was an early case in GB. He struggled recovering, was administered IV Remdesivir and was able to avoid mechanical ventilation mostly because he wisely refused it even though his O2 sats were in the low 80s. He tested (-) for SARS-COV-2 after 3 weeks and spent another month in the hospital regaining his strength. He was discharged home. About a week later, he experienced difficulty breathing and presented again to the ED. He was again admitted, tested (+) for the virus, was diagnosed with SARS related pneumonia secondary to a cytokine storm and was treated with both ABX, immune system anti-organ-rejection drugs and a pile of steroids. He got better, tested (-) 2X again and is now at home and getting around. He still suffers from what he believes is permanent lung scarring and gets out of breath easily going up stairs. He says he can deal with that and it's better than being dead.

I don't think the medical or scientific community knows whether people are getting re-infected or whether they never cleared the virus and relapsed. I suspect the later although I have nothing but my gut to base that on. I saw viral URI symptoms afflict patients, have them get better in a week to 10d with standard TX, relapse and return for care. Sometimes with little ones and the elderly this could go on for 8-10 weeks. I should point out, the cytokine storm the case study talked about above as a symtom or relapse v. reinfection was unique. This sort of storm usually occurs during diseases onset and is very difficult to recognize and control. It is frequently the cause of end-stage COVID-19 symptoms.

Well early on I recall AA playing the doom and gloom card and 2.4 million deaths...which I immediately questioned...but was met with such fervor opposition when I said it would be more like Influenza numbers...idiots...

[Ghengis Jon]

White House says Trump will be signing an executive order pertaining to 'social media' tomorrow. Haven't said more than that because they haven't thought that far ahead yet.

This should be entertaining. Trump's hot air is to set the stage for a potential Nov excuse. He himself called Twitter's action as interfering with the 2020 election. What had Twtter done? They hung a "Hey, do your homework on this one" label on his tweet. His Majesty does not want his version of reality challenged.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well early on I recall AA playing the doom and gloom card and 2.4 million deaths...which I immediately questioned...but was met with such fervor opposition when I said it would be more like Influenza numbers...idiots...

TBF, the best early models had a wide range of deaths admitting the difficulty in making accurate predictions. Of course, the media locked on to the top numbers in the 2m range with predictions of the coming apocalypse. You'll all recall the Fauci walk back to 60K which I think he was forced to do at gun point - he's never been comfortable speaking honestly about the impact and likely outcomes of the pandemic in the US.

At this point, the science, evidence and data regarding SARS-COV-2 is decent, not perfect and it won't be until years from now - but it's good enough to inform good public policy. However, those that should be forming it and presenting it are hand-cuffed by the idiot sitting in the oval office who thinks he's smarter than them. Spoiler, he's not.

The biggest problem in shaping accurate, evidence based perceptions among Americans has been the terrible, often conflicting messaging from the CDC, USPHS, DHS and the WH. It's pretty clear to me that if Trump didn't like what one spokesperson was saying during the awful WH briefings in the early days of this, they got the cane. It's also clear to me that Trump willfully lied or made shit up and continues to do so in his presentations in the hope of being Churchillian as a leader. Epic fail because it was then and continues now to be easy to fact check his bull-shit. If he lacked cred going into this thing, he's in it now with zero cred with the exception of the ne're-do-wells that stubbornly cling to his erroneous COVID views out of abject fear of looking like the morons they are if they abandon him. That's powerful shit among his supporters. It prompts the militancy we see. None of this crowd wants to look bad and are acting like cornered animals as the evidence mounts that they are willfully ignorant of the facts.

[AlabamAlum]

Well early on I recall AA playing the doom and gloom card and 2.4 million deaths...which I immediately questioned...but was met with such fervor opposition when I said it would be more like Influenza numbers...idiots...

We’re 4 months in. “Only” 100,000 dead. This time next year, if we are significantly under a million dead, I will gladly say you were right and order the 6th best wings In Ogallala to celebrate.

[Jeff Buchanan]

We’re 4 months in. “Only” 100,000 dead. This time next year, if we are significantly under a million dead, I will gladly say you were right and order the 6th best wings In Ogallala to celebrate.

The U-Dub, IMHE models have come under fire recently. They did switch their display which looks out through August, 2020 with the top of their uncertainty range at 170K deaths. If we liberally assume we have the predictable decline in GR over time, therapeutics become more widely available and utilized and a viable vaccine(s) by late 2020 and the vaccine(s) becomes scaleable by March of 2021, you better get your wallet out AA.

Deaths.PNG

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[AlabamAlum]

I hope you’re right. We need a vaccine. Some promising news from the Scots on that front, but it’s still 100,000 4 months in with the country shut down most of that time.

June 1, 2021 I hope I am dining on mediocre corn-flavored frozen wings shipped in from the Land of Solich.

[Dr. Strangelove]

We’re 4 months in. “Only” 100,000 dead. This time next year, if we are significantly under a million dead, I will gladly say you were right and order the 6th best wings In Ogallala to celebrate.

You'll be eating crow...literally.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This isn't new news, at least to me.I posted here at least a week ago about reduced scientific evidence that contact with surfaces contaminated with SARS-COV-2 was a significant means of virus transmission. I wrote my post after a video surfaced on the web that showed how experimenters had demonstrated surface contamination of fluorescent particles that simulated a virus such as SARS-COV-2 by the simulated dispersal of these particles by a sneeze in a closed space. It was impressive as the particles were everywhere including on clothing, keys, bags, faucets, you name it. The video gave rise to subsequent videos where HCPs - supposed professionals in their medical fields - demonstrated how to unpack your groceries and sanitize everything. It was crazy over the top shit and I said so.

Now, we're learning, nope, it's not likely you'll get COVID from contact with a contaminated surface. The reasons are (1) even though virus particles do contaminate surfaces, after landing, they quickly dissipate in virulence - that's the amount of the virus required to produce and infection. (2) The chain of infection goes like this, surface is contaminated, uninfected, naive person touches that surface, sufficient amount of virus to produce an infection is transferred to that person's hands, that person touches eyes, nose or mouth, sufficient virulent particles are then transferred to bodily tissues in an amount necessary to produce infection. There's no data I've seen on objectively measuring probabilities but common sense says it's easy to interrupt this chain of events required to cause infection. I'd go as far as to say, like, maybe a < 3% chance. I base that, again, on common sense and that percentage is where medical people start thinking occurrence rates above it are medically significant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/w...b2da6e075b25bf

[Jeff Buchanan]

You'll be eating crow...literally.

Wow! DSL with a note of optimism.

[iam416]

I was firmly with Alabam"Alum" on the outcome of the pandemic. I'm no longer in the 2M+ camp. I'm not even sure if I'm in the 1M camp any more. The bulk of the world is going to be in (or has been in) a controlled open. If we don't see the dreaded "spike" in the next month then I'm personally going to conclude that the control measures taken are sufficient to significantly reduce the R(t) value. I'm already well on my way to thinking that, but with something where we are learning on the fly I'd still prefer more data.

I'd also be surprised, a little, if we see the dreaded "second wave." I don't think this thing is licked by a longshot, but I'm getting close to thinking we have it controlled in the sense of both hospital capacity and resources (that's obvious, we won that battle) and transmission rates (still TBD, but I'm trending toward optimistic).

Covid is up a pawn, but we've fought back to a neutral position with a strong opportunity for a draw. Perhaps we pull out some Morphy-like genius and score an unlikely win. But, a draw is good enough, especially when in March people thought (including me) that we're going to lose in 4 moves.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Kinda feel like the latest out of Hong Kong hasn't really registered yet. Pretty hard to see how tensions are diffused any time soon at this point. Trade deal -- can prob forget about it. Congress almost unanimously voted for sanctions on China over the Uighur situation and that was before the PRC decided to absorb Hong Kong.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/asia/...hnk/index.html

[Ghengis Jon]

The US will only sanction the Politiboro member responsible, and not China as a whole. It's been three years since the US abandoned all aspects of world leadership. China will flaunt the absence or assume the role. There is no grand coalition that can be formed, no coordinated response to China's deeds or intents. China can and will do as they want. This won't change until the US comes out of its geopolitical coma. China's drive to become the world's leading superpower will continue unabated until we lose the current administration. And maybe the next one as well, as I don't know how tough Biden will be. It's a pretty low bar to be better than Trump, but that alone won't be enough to right the ship.

Fuck China.

[iam416]

That's a really trash take in so many ways. I mean -- motherfucking awful.