Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Correct. Finally.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is the narrative. If you can't see it, you're willfully fucking blind.

Headline from the AP -- "Spike in South Korea virus cases shows perils of reopening" (https://apnews.com/72fae695d7df85accb1bf449568a8a1f)

I'll let you all read the article to find out what constitutes a "spike" that "shows the perils of reopening".

The media has behaved disgracefully in pushing their narrative. Disgracefully.

Like I said, I stopped reading anything coming from the main stream print and broadcast media. I apologize, talent, I didn't even read the link to to the AP article. I already know the narrative they're peddling. I am absolutely certain that if I had access to data SK public health policy makers have access to I could reliably counter the AP hypothesis with solid data.

Asian governments, in general, are very good at dealing with spot increases in new cases. SK is tops in the world at that and have the data to prove it. They find out who person zero is in a new outbreak, quarantine them and track every contact person zero had, then quarantine and monitor them for symptoms. Remember the gay nightclub outbreak in Seoul a couple of weeks ago? News spoke of DIRE CONSEQUENCES of SK's too early relaxing of mitigation and containment measures. Nothing, absolutely nothing came of this. I presume that is beause of how SK officials react to outbreaks - ID, quarantine, track and trace.

I actually think that public health officials on the local level in the US understand the importance of contact tracing and can do it pretty effectively, even though allegedly resource constrained, when the focus is placed on the places where hot-spots might crop up. Let's take the Lake of the Ozarks PR disaster. The governor recommended anyone at that location self quarantine for 14d. I'd like to see public health officials there ask those same people to step forward and get tested - the magic number for testing sufficient to draw conclusions about a possible outbreak or hot-spot from that gathering is only around 50%. Entirely doable .... you don't have to ID and test everyone. A recent academic paper about China's approach to test all 11m people in Wuhan after an outbreak criticized Beijing's official position on this stating that only about 1/2 that number needed to be tested to determine if reintroduction of strict containment measures were needed.

This last week, FL officials have been quick to point out that as they hone in on such likely outbreak locations, e.g. prisons, food processing and packaging plants and elder living and care facilities they're catching newly infected persons and doing what is necessary after that . State numbers support that approach is working.

Anyway, yeah, disgraceful how this shit is portrayed in the press. Fauci had his say about Lake of the Ozarks on CNN today and he pretty much echoed what Governor Parsons had to say about it - in short, be smart the virus is still with us. Noting he said stunk of DIRE but while I haven't seen them yet, this evening's headlines will feature his remarks and do all sorts of twisting of them to fit the narrative.

[iam416]

I apologize, talent, I didn't even read the link to to the AP article

40. 40 new cases. FORTY. To rework the headline -- "Forty new cases in South Korea shows peril of reopening."

You can't make that up. It's a self-parody at this point.

[Ghengis Jon]

Jeff, what's been seen as far as re-infection? There were 13 sailors on the USS Teddy that recovered from covid, went 2-3 weeks testing negative, and tested positive a second time. A couple of weeks ago, I read an article that referenced a recent study that showed in one sample population, 13% (I think) were re-infected. What does the current literature show?

[iam416]

Re-infection isn't happening. I believe the most recent data shows that bits of the virus may stay in the body well after recovery (you're not contagious at this point). This creates a false positive.

https://science.thewire.in/health/so...alse-positive/

If you'd been paying attention to the illuminating posts from Buchanan and, of course, me, then you'd already know that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The DJIA posted hefty gains again today carrying the average solidly above 25K. The S&P500 also finished above the "structural level" of 3000 that signals a bull market.

Notwithstanding everything that has been said here about how these two indexes are structured, the gains since historic lows in terms of % drops were reached in February is remarkable.

There's quite a bit of very good economic reporting on how this recovery may or may not reflect the forward looking global and US economic reality. I'm not savvy enough to understand it all even though I managed a B my sophomore, first quarter year in Econ 101. Pretty sure I dropped the next sequenced course in economics after my first exam! By that time I had joined a fraternity and was playing cards and drinking beer.

Nevertheless, as of now, I don't think I'll have to die a few years earlier and if I'm still alive in my mid-90s, I won't be eating cat-food. It's been a good run.

[iam416]

By and large, this everything associated with this thing is trending to the "not as bad as we thought" bucket. I mean, even the feted Governor Cuomo has said, "yeah, the models were wrong. We all got it wrong."

Nursing homes account for 43% of the deaths in the US (and roughly 0.6% of the population). There is the tragedy. For the rest of us, though...not as a bad as the experts said....Hannibal may end up doing a victory lap or ten.

[iam416]

There's quite a bit of very good economic reporting on how this recovery may or may not reflect the forward looking global and US economic reality.

There a group of folks with a vested interest that the stock markets are a sham and a group of folks with a vest interest that they portend better things.

If we ease back toward normalcy then the latter is going to be right. This wasn't an economic disaster in cause. It was a health disaster. Everything economic was strong as fuck in January. If the period of retrenchment only ends up being 6-7 months then the bounce back is going to be swift.

Now, Jon disagrees so I hope he's selling futures like a motherfucker waiting for the big crash to come.

[iam416]

Also, if you’re not watching the History Channel special on U.S. Grant you’re missing out. It’s a great refresher on how he’s one of truly great Americans.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff, what's been seen as far as re-infection? There were 13 sailors on the USS Teddy that recovered from covid, went 2-3 weeks testing negative, and tested positive a second time. A couple of weeks ago, I read an article that referenced a recent study that showed in one sample population, 13% (I think) were re-infected. What does the current literature show?

This is a good question. I've read two journal articles on this, one of them indirectly applicable. Both of them think that it's not so much "reinfection" as it is a continuation of the COVID-19 symptoms. Administration testing errors for RT-PCR are possible as a cause for negative tests during convalescence. Other factors include the complexity of the process by which SARS-COV-2 viral load recedes. In the case of the re-infection of sailors on the TR, we'd have to know by what methods they were re-tested. RT-PCR is highly sensitive but not very specific. It can red-light on other corona-viruses so, it is known to have some false + reliability issues but not that many issues with false -. There are several other testing kits widely used now. Some of them are not at all reliable.

One other case study in Britain I read involved a 71 year old fit MD who contracted the virus along the way about 3 months ago. He was an early case in GB. He struggled recovering, was administered IV Remdesivir and was able to avoid mechanical ventilation mostly because he wisely refused it even though his O2 sats were in the low 80s. He tested (-) for SARS-COV-2 after 3 weeks and spent another month in the hospital regaining his strength. He was discharged home. About a week later, he experienced difficulty breathing and presented again to the ED. He was again admitted, tested (+) for the virus, was diagnosed with SARS related pneumonia secondary to a cytokine storm and was treated with both ABX, immune system anti-organ-rejection drugs and a pile of steroids. He got better, tested (-) 2X again and is now at home and getting around. He still suffers from what he believes is permanent lung scarring and gets out of breath easily going up stairs. He says he can deal with that and it's better than being dead.

I don't think the medical or scientific community knows whether people are getting re-infected or whether they never cleared the virus and relapsed. I suspect the later although I have nothing but my gut to base that on. I saw viral URI symptoms afflict patients, have them get better in a week to 10d with standard TX, relapse and return for care. Sometimes with little ones and the elderly this could go on for 8-10 weeks. I should point out, the cytokine storm the case study talked about above as a symtom or relapse v. reinfection was unique. This sort of storm usually occurs during diseases onset and is very difficult to recognize and control. It is frequently the cause of end-stage COVID-19 symptoms.

[AlabamAlum]

In Vegas. Playing Keno. I was admiring a guy’s tie-dye shirt and told him I’d like to see how he does it. He was admiring my kilt I had made. We decided to help each other out.

I guess you could say I kilted a man at keno just to watch him dye.

[lineygoblue]

<<<<<<<--- the door is over there, sir

[Ghengis Jon]

Now, Jon disagrees so I hope he's selling futures like a motherfucker waiting for the big crash to come.

Nah, just overly cautious / borderline paranoid. I pulled all my retirement funding out of the stock market a year ago. Been buying stable value and money market in my current 401k since. Bought back into the market at 20% down and at 30% down. Missed the bottom but oh well. I'm fat, dumb, happy and most importantly secure. On the other hand, my personal investments, all in stock, took a pounding. The market will eventually recover. If the market goes up I make money. If the market goes down, I have another buying opportunity.

I wouldn't mind some big volatility in the market right now. While the economy resets, let the speculators get burned and taken out. The ride will smooth out when the recovery takes hold.

[Dr. Strangelove]

White House says Trump will be signing an executive order pertaining to 'social media' tomorrow. Haven't said more than that because they haven't thought that far ahead yet.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Former Rep. Sam Johnson died (retired just last year). He was the last Korean War vet to serve in Congress. Was a POW in Vietnam for 7 years

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/05/27/longtime-texas-congressman-sam-johnson-pow-in-vietnam-dies-at-age-89/