Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

I apologize for interrupting this morning's discussion about the value of various shit-restaurants in ohio or even Alabama. But being from the home of the Waffle House and Chick Filet, no less, I know a thing or two about Southern restaurants.

Waffle House is good ..... depending on the waitresses and grill master and especially if you don't mind the constantly loud clanking of plates being taken from the dishwasher under the counter and being slammed into a pile of them on a shelf over the grill master's head for quick and easy access. And Waffle House is quick regardless of crowd.

Chick Filet biscuits are just OK and subject to the vagaries of being baked properly.

Those of you who have never experienced BoJangles are missing a breakfast chicken biscuit that if you enjoy heat you will enjoy it going in and going out.

IMO, if you're looking for a drive through, the best biscuits are found in another Southern favorite fast-food-chain, Hardey's

We tend to find hole in the wall restaurants outside of the those presenting the standard gruel that is chain fare. There is one in Dacula GA, near us, called Brunch Apothecary. It's in an old farm house and if you don't get there before 11am, well before actually, you won't get a seat as the church crowd keeps the place full until they close at 2pm. Wait times for a table can be just too much. Menu is simple, limited and straight forward, unlike the Cheese Cake Factory, a dining abomination if there ever was won, ......Chicken & Churros Waffle, Southern Monte Cristo, Shrimp and Grits, Pork Belly Benedict are features. I recommend the Rooster. Nicely prepared fried chicken breasts, 2 of them, between a home made buttermilk biscuit. Get the hash brown casserole as a side.

Now on to the day's things of importance .............

[Jeff Buchanan]

......... There's really not much COVID news to report this morning, at least of the startling version. Most of it is pretty mundane. Some observations:

It's too early to evaluate the impact of re-openings on GR, CFR or % +s of all tests conducted. This is especially true if one wants to look at county or city data. Looking at daily data can be misleading. Three and seven day rolling averages tend to smooth out daily bumps one way or the other and tell you if the general trend is up or down. I'd give it another week. As well, unless you look at county or city level and correlate those with the degree of reduction in mitigation and containment measures its easy to get misled. Some observations:

• One thing I am seeing looking at the data in FL is that daily percent positives of all tests remains remarkably consistent at 3-5% since it got below 7% about a month ago. You'll recall this value is a reflection of virus containment. At or below 7% is good, at or below 3% is regarded as containment.
• R(t) through 5/18 remains below 1.0 in all but 2 states (no changes since yesterday in the states that opened early and that we're paying attention to (FL, GA). You'll recall R(t) values let us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.

There are some big picture data that, as expected, show a reduction of the impact of COVID. For example:

• As more data is collected world wide, the percent of cases that are serious since January has dropped from 4% to 2%
• Total deaths v. total cases world wide have dropped from a high of 15% on 3/24 to 1% on 5/18
• Recall that every pandemic virus in history demonstrates a rise, a peak and a fall regardless of how humans react to it or how governments mitigate it. Rate of rise, height of the rise, length of time of the peak and rate of fall are all affected by mitigation and containment measures. The point is that the natural course of SARS-COV-2 is proving to be much like historical virus pandemics to a degree and only differentiated in degree by steps taken to mitigate and contain it.

I read an article in MIT Technical Review about testing - something I think is important in managing re-opening strategies such strategies validated by testing protocols in SK, Taiwan, Honk Kong and Singapore, among others with successful containment of COVID as mitigation and containment measures are eased.

• That number to test is thought to be 90% of the population. Presently, that 90% target is not practically nor is it physically possible due to resource limitations (people who are now or will become contact tracers, insufficient infrastructure/data processing systems at the state and municipal levels).
• Three states, CA, NY and IL have plans to get to that testing capacity. One state, ND, has reached it.
• The US cannot possibly test the population to the level necessary it is believed to be for testing to have an impact on containment of the virus without a massive and federally funded testing program. A federally organized contact tracing program necessary to follow-up on new positives is estimated to cost $2b.
• Bean counters think that if you were able to reduce R(0) from 2.6 to 1 and conduct tracing at a 90% rate of folks that the infected person was in contact with it could reduce transmission by 45%. Doesn't sound like much but it is: if social distancing in a given region had reduced infections per person from 2.6 to 1, this level of contact tracing could push it down to .55. Or the region could ease distancing measures by about half and keep infection levels constant.

I've advocated for targeted testing since the beginning of this as a means to establish time frames to re-open and now as a means to manage them. I think if you did that while re-opening, you might test by age stratification, for example, all students at FIU in Miami, all residents of a set of retirement communities and all plant workers in a specific manufacturing facility, you'd catch a decent cross-section of the population. It seems to me you could then extrapolate data from those samples.

Right now, we're flying in the blind as far as re-opening management is concerned. Officials managing that may or may not have access or understand the data that should be driving re-opening management. Instead, at least in my observations in S. FL, officials doing the management are inappropriately influenced by politics and are easily influenced by the mostly proven, scientifically uninformed media. The danger of that is dampening of willingness of officials to move forward and of consumer confidence to go out and spend. I think this is a huge deal.

[AlabamAlum]

Georgia is the birthplace of Waffle House, Chick-fil-a, AND Huddle House.

West-by god-Virginny is the birthplace of Shoney's. Bojangles is from North Cackalacky.

Also, lol at calling the guy cooking at Waffle House the "Grill Master".

[Dr. Strangelove]

Shoney's isn't from Tennessee? At least I always associated them with Team Val

[AlabamAlum]

Shoney's isn't from Tennessee? At least I always associated them with Team Val

Its current HQ is in Tennessee. It was founded in WVa.

[AlabamAlum]

Apparently Shoney’s started as some sub franchise association with Big Boy (which is California-founded with an HQ in Michigan).

And Cheesecake Factory is a Michiganlander founded restaurant, too.

So, Talent marries a M grad and sings the praises of Michigan’s restaurants? Sickening. Watch your step, DSL, “Talent” may be an M operative trying to abscond with Buckeye secrets.

[iam416]

That's dirty pool. I knew you were suspect given your penchance for shit tipping, but I had no idea you were also a line cutter AND shopping cart non-returner.

Vile.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Hide the recipe for Bob Evans sausage gravy!!

[AlabamAlum]

Bob Evans and BBW are the Ohio entries. Not too bad.

Tennessee has Cracker Barrel. Bob Evans' food reminds me a bit of Cracker Barrel food - just like Ohio residents remind me a lot of Tennessee Hilljacks.

[iam416]

I've been to the original Bob Evans in Rio Grande, and if you pronounce it with a long "e" sound you're a gotdamn fool. I've also, of course, been to the original BW3.

Wendy's would also be an entrant, but is still in the "fast food" genre.

[AlabamAlum]

Alabama doesn't have a lot. Checkers, which I despise and a couple of regional BBQ chains (Jim "N Nicks and Full Moon and a few others).

[AlabamAlum]

Ohio also has Arby's, too.

And Brio's, too.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I do remember going to the original Wendy's in downtown Columbus before it closed down for good. Been to Rio Grande too.

Where was the original BW3, Talent?

[iam416]

Yes, of course. I think I was at the original Arby's in Boardman -- that's pretty close to where I grew up. It's no longer there. But I believe I was there as a kid -- probably bitching that we didn't got McDonald's.

[iam416]

Where was the original BW3, Talent?

North Campus on High Street. I wanna say it was the corner of Woodruf. So, I was there starting in 1991 before they were anything other than BW3. I'm not even sure if they had a second location at that time. In 1994 I lived up the street from there and I was 21 (they were annoyingly strict wrt ID). And they had trivia. So, I could waste the better part of a winter Saturday afternoon there no problem.