Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

Gene Roddenberry patterned Klingons after Vikings.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I cannot overemphasize how valuable these blog posts are (link below). They are from a PhD Microbiologist specializing in virology and immunology by the name of Erin Bromage. He is from Australia but now teaches at UMass, Dartmouth. The first link will take you to his most recent blog post. There is a wealth of solid SARS-COV-2 information in linked blog posts contained therein. I recommend you spend some time looking around. I now have his blog bookmarked on my bookmark bar. I found the section on how the virus spreads in a restaurant setting highly informative.

The second link will take you to all his articles on COVID.

DSL, this guy is a must read for you as it was for me because it brought me down a bit from my ranting about re-opening. Wiz, take a look at the spread of the virus in restaurant settings Bromage goes through. TBF, I've been a cautious re-opening advocate for sure but, I was probably a bit to liberal in my views in specific environments. Restaurants being one of them. I know that I'm taking a risk by cycling in a studio but now I have the facts to better assess my risk. If I'm going to do it, I should be wearing the mask I bought for that purpose and haven't been using. My next class is this evening. I'll be donning a mask. talent, you're fine riding outside ...... stay out of the slip streams of riders in front of you. I can also see why gyms shouldn't open right now in some but not all states - where a state has control and that control persists, gyms, hair salons and barber shops can re-open with restrictions. So, FL yes, GA, no.

The other thing I got out of pouring through the most recent and the linked blog posts is that officials that are holding back - the ones I've been lambasting for being influenced by fear and paranoia, have the facts to back their reluctance to open up according to Dr. Bromage. If that is what, in fact, is driving their decisions to hold back, great, but I'm not convinced that is the driving factor. Regardless, I'm going to back-off criticizing the lack of fearless leadership in the tri-county area of S. FL. As usual, benefit of the doubt and the right course is somewhere in the middle!

Also contained within the blog posts is an excellent time line of the spread of SARS-COV-2 and it's likely origin - SARS wasn't manipulated by evildoers to cook-up SARS-COV-2 in a Chinese Bio-warfare lab. You've seen the conspiracy stuff, I've seen it and according to Bromage, it's not likely. However, It did originate in China but more benevolently than malevolently according to Bromage. That does not mean the PRC didn't try to optimize what was transpiring to their advantage. So, yeah, fuck them.

The origin, Bromage thinks, was animal to human transmission, in a market in Wuhan that occurred sometime in November, 2019. It was recognized by the Chinese within a week and, if he's factually correct, the PRC CDC reported it as a potential threat in early December to WHO. WHO released a public health warning a few days later. You be your own judge after reading the time line regarding the huffing and puffing from Pompeo, the WH, canceling US funding of WHO and it's implications.

Finally, talent's "baked in" description of how the first 60d of this thing has gone down, according to Bromage, is spot on. US infrastructure was not prepared for the scope of this Pandemic - no one was around the world because of the extreme infectivity of SARS-COV-2 and how rapidly it spreads. Bromage uses an analogy. Think about a restaurant producing 50,000 meals in a year being asked to produce that same number in a week or even a month.

How it was dealt with and how citizens responded to official policy, country by country, in the US, state by state, has made a difference in how the peak # of cases was reached and how steeply it declined. In the US overall and in some states, the peak has been reached and the curve has flattened. Bromage offers that the flattening of the curve is a universal occurrence, it has occurred in the US but instead of dropping steeply as it has in some countries (and NY), it's plateaued in the US but, if you remove NY it's still increasing. Alos, in the US, the plateau is persisting for a longer period of time due to America's slow response to testing in February. If a country doesn't jump right on ID'ing, isolating and contract tracing those that are infected, reaching the peak # of cases occurs later and the recovery is slower - see the US. IOW, the US is a month behind because of the delay in February and re-opening probably shouldn't be happening as rapidly as it is happening. More likely re-opening should be held back until testing is up to speed (and it's getting there, at least, on a state by state basis, some better than others, e.g., FL and MI).

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...b2da6e075b25bf

This link is to all his articles:

https://www.erinbromage.com/

[iam416]

it has occurred in the US but instead of dropping steeply as it has in some countries (and NY), it's plateaued in the US but, if you remove NY it's still increasing. Alos, in the US, the plateau is persisting for a longer period of time due to America's slow response to testing in February

First, it's hard to look at the US as a single uniform country. We don't look at the EU as such, but that's what we're doing with the US.

Second, it's quite possible the plateuing of cases has to do with the massive increase in testing (FYI, the US has conducted more tests than any other country -- by a lot).

Third, the deaths seem to be decreasing.

Fourth, he's correct that the cake was baked.

Fifth, the animal to human theory certainly seems more probably than not, but it's tougher to explain when the bats at issue are nowhere to be found in Wuhan. I think the accidental lab transmission theory is also pretty viable.

Sixth, fuck the WHO. On January 14, the WHO parrotted China's official line -- the virus does not transfer human-to-human. The WHO parrots the Chinese party line. Period. The WHO refuses to recognize, discuss or otherwise promote Taiwan's response -- which, by all acounts, has been superior. If you don't like what China is doing or did then I'm not sure how you can say "yah, WHO!"

Seventh, one dude's blog is interesting at best. Does he have a blog entry on the Imperial College study and Naill Ferguson?

[Hannibal]

The cake was baked with patient zero.

[iam416]

Correct.

[Jeff Buchanan]

First, it's hard to look at the US as a single uniform country. We don't look at the EU as such, but that's what we're doing with the US.

Agreed and I certainly try to avoid those comparisons - especially the uninformed talk that compares Sweden, Denmark and the US. Nonsensical. In social experiments I've read - which is what following COVID on a country by country basis amounts to, a social experiment - for conclusions to be rational and scientific - you have to isolate what you want to look at (e.g., CFR) and then strictly control all the variables. I don't think anyone has published anything worth a shit ..... yet. There's a shit-ton of conclusions being reached out there by the lay press, to a lesser degree in the scientific community becasue they understand of the rigors of the scientific method. It will come, although much later.

Second, it's quite possible the plateuing of cases has to do with the massive increase in testing (FYI, the US has conducted more tests than any other country -- by a lot).

Total case #s, no doubt. CFR, R(t), GR data may have some comparative value when done on an apples to apples basis (that's often hard) but that value is compromised by the variance in collection and reporting processes .......user beware.

Third, the deaths seem to be decreasing.

Well, yes but there is a plateau and it a a global one - some of that having to do with how deaths are reported and that they lag.




Above, there are two plots. The first, looks at averages and it tends to smooth the graph and where the splines point - the splines point downward but not significantly less than zero. It is important, as you point out, that with deaths decreasing this implies some degree of control The second plot looks at the daily death rate. Splines are decidedly downward and in a big way. Individual states contribute negatively or positively to the US #s with NY and Florida likely (both down significantly) having a large impact on the US's #s in the downward direction, parts of the NE and mid-west having the opposite effect.

State by State here:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Fifth, the animal to human theory certainly seems more probably than not, but it's tougher to explain when the bats at issue are nowhere to be found in Wuhan. I think the accidental lab transmission theory is also pretty viable.

Sixth, fuck the WHO. On January 14, the WHO parrotted China's official line -- the virus does not transfer human-to-human. The WHO parrots the Chinese party line. Period. The WHO refuses to recognize, discuss or otherwise promote Taiwan's response -- which, by all acounts, has been superior. If you don't like what China is doing or did then I'm not sure how you can say "yah, WHO!"

I probably came across a little to lenient on the Chicoms in my post. That's because I had a long discussion yesterday with family members who have embraced the conspiracy theories on China - "it was a bio-attack..... no question about it." Showed me a YouTube video of a "scientist" of questionable credentials that was spouting off about how the virus was manipulated by the Chinese and intentionally or by accident was released from the Wuhan lab to kill people and disable economies - esp. the US economy...... WAR!!!!

Clearly, science demonstrates it wasn't manipulated or created by the Chinese as a bio-weapon. I've not heard a discussion of Taiwan's response compared to the PRC. I will look at it. OTH, I believe the PRC is complicit in the global damage and I hold to the view that was expressed in the link I provided on that subject up thread. So, as I said, fuck China.

I'm not sure I want to indict the WHO just yet but I may going forward as I'm skeptical of organizations like this promising to do much good on a global scale (see the UN, the EU over-all) and doiing not much at all except casting dispersions on the US and capitalism in general. That is because getting us past this and then making sure a vaccine is scalable and affordable is an unprecedented global priority The WHO may be able to play a roll can in getting the players to cooperate with each other instead of focusing on property rights and profit. I'm in a wait and see mode on this one.

Seventh, one dude's blog is interesting at best. Does he have a blog entry on the Imperial College study and Naill Ferguson? [/QUOTE]

This is a nuanced approach to what you imply above and more directly how I feel about Neil Ferguson. He is right about lock-downs in the UK probably having a more deleterious effect on the nation than a positive one and in the grand scheme of things I won't disagree with that. But, this particular article offers this appraisal of Ferguson's "hypocritical" behavior:

Beyond the tawdry tabloid headlines and cries of hypocrisy, Ferguson’s indiscretions reveal a deeper, stranger truth. Sometimes, fairness can demand that we act stupid, even when we’re not.

https://theconversation.com/did-neil...ockdown-138088

[iam416]

To be clear, I don't care about Ferguson's bullshit extracurriculars. Those things matter not one lick. What I do care about is a model that is appears to be massively flawed from the get-go and the reliance of, well, almost everyone thereon. And that includes me. It highlights a huge problem in times of panic and fear -- we disavow skepticism (except Hannibal) and move straight to embracing the purported worst-case scenario.

I remain supportive of the general measures taken to "soften" the curve as a means to preserve medical capacity. I think our policies going forward ought to be guided by the same objectives. If you think reopening will lead to hospital overload then don't do it. But, if think we've bought ourselves some time to deal with whatever surge may come, then it's time to move forward. And further, as we all agree, reopening isn't a matter of various governments saying "have at it!" Things will really only get back to normal when society has the confidence to generally proceed. Whatever happens in the next few weeks is only going to be a mild version of reopening.

But, back to Ferguson -- that model scared the fuck out of people. And no one really questioned it.

[Ghengis Jon]

I'm glad Trump's favorite doesn't engage in fake news.


RealNews.JPG

[Jeff Buchanan]

To be clear, I don't care about Ferguson's bullshit extracurriculars. .......But, back to Ferguson -- that model scared the fuck out of people. And no one really questioned it.

Ahhh, sorry, I thought you might be touting Ferguson and the decision tree in the UK based on the Cambridge model. I was mistaken. I'm with you, models, including Cambridge's, are FOS and, in terms of officials relying on them then spreading fear and paranoia and spouting off on the risk of re-openings, have had a massively negative impact on human behaviors.

The author of the linked article in my post, though, does make a decent point: Citizens need to do the right things in the COVID circumstance and I think there are plenty of instances here in the US and probably the UK where that's not happening and that's not a good thing in helping us deal with the present circumstance and ultimately get past SARS-COV-2

[Dr. Strangelove]

Florida gym rats protest against the tyrannical Gov DeSantis by doing pushups and squats in front of the Clearwater courthouse

https://myfox8.com/news/coronavirus/protesters-calling-for-gyms-to-reopen-do-squats-push-ups-outside-florida-courthouse/

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jon- That story about Soros, the Clintons, Bill Gates, and others using disease for population control was too batshit crazy even for OAN and they eventually yanked the segment from the air.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Florida gym rats protest against the tyrannical Gov DeSantis by doing pushups and squats in front of the Clearwater courthouse

https://myfox8.com/news/coronavirus/...da-courthouse/

The idiot fringe ...... this crowd is is easy to identify by rational people as uninformed when it comes to passing out information on shuttering. The other side, because they are frequently cloaked in professional looking medical attire and/or speak from podiums adorned with official seals seem to me to be more dangerous when it comes to talking about re-opening risks.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If you like to get down in the weeds about testing this is a very good article that describes the three categories of tests, RT- PCR (stick the swab up your nose), Antibody Tests (draw blood) and Point of Care (POC) tests (The five minute or instant tell you if you have it or not with pin-prick blood)

I was surprised to see how poor sensitivity, how well the a test detects the virus, was with RT-PCR administered by nasal swab (63%). It was high in specificity (how accurate the test is in revealing the presence of SARS-COV-2 (100%):

In a study of 205 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection, RT-PCR positivity was highest in bronchoalveolar lavage specimens (93%), followed by sputum (72%), nasal swab (63%), and pharyngeal swab (32%).⁵ False-negative results mainly occurred due to inappropriate timing of sample collection in relation to illness onset and deficiency in sampling technique, especially of nasopharyngeal swabs. Specificity of most of the RT-PCR tests is 100% because the primer design is specific to the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2. Occasional false-positive results may occur due to technical errors and reagent contamination.

This does not mean that 33% more COVID infections probably exist because of this, it simply means if a person is infected the hit rate of detection by just a nasal swab is 63%. However sensitivity lives in balance with the specificity. So, overall, RT-PCR by nasal swab alone isn't awful - but its also not great. That's why the administrator of the RT-PCR test is actually gathering both a nasal and pharyngeal swab when it's uncomfortably jammed up your nose and into your nasopharynx as well. That is going to improve sensitivity but by how much, the article doesn't say. I'm pretty sure that the current RT-PCR tests kits made it through the more stringent FDA certification process.

I was not surprised that POC tests are garbage right now. These tests are not consistently reliable enough and ready for prime time. We know this here.

If you read the article, it will become clear to you how easy it is to have multiple things go wrong in the testing process that make the results unreliable. Still, it's what we have right now and this should not be interpreted as me saying don't bother with testing if its unreliable - it is fucking key. Do it. AB testing in particular is going to get refined and improved. The article does make a case for conducting an initial test by RT-PCR and subsequent tests with serology (AB testing) to improve overall sensitivity as that data relates to case rates.

Tricky business is what it is right now:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2765837

[Ghengis Jon]

Jon- That story about Soros, the Clintons, Bill Gates, and others using disease for population control was too batshit crazy even for OAN and they eventually yanked the segment from the air.

You can't un-ring a bell. They knew darn well what they were saying.

[Dr. Strangelove]

This was always one of my favorite blooper moments from Seinfeld. RIP, Jerry