Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

D Senators have proposed monthly payments to basically everyone. For my own situation (joint filer making less than $200K), I would receive $4K (joint) + $4K (2 kids@$2K each) for a total of $8K PER MONTH. And it would be retroactive to March. And I'm still "working" and getting paid.

Who knew Covid would such a windfall!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Speaking of news stories that would be huge in any other year, apparently Bay of Pigs 2.0 happened and nobody cares?

Calling it that does a disservice to the Bay of Pigs

[Jeff Buchanan]

Short blog entry on what I was talking about yesterday re testing and reopening: https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...covid-19-data/......The gist, which is entirely correct....

The same outlets that raised concerns about the United States lacking sufficient testing are now interpreting the data in a way that punishes testing increases. The result is that many readers have been misinformed into believing that the situation is getting worse, which has the unintended consequences of feeding into false claims that the actions we have taken so far were ineffective.

In attempting to find support for a narrative that things are getting worse and red states are making a mistake in considering moving to a re-opening phase, these outlets have resorted to misleading their readers. If media outlets expect to be trusted on this subject, they need to present the data in an accurate way and with proper context instead of looking for ways to support their pre-determined conclusions.

Just for fun, I tuned into GMA this morning just to see what the news narrative was after I hadn't looked at any TV broadcast news since Tuesday. Here were the headlines:

(1) STATES THAT ARE REOPENING AREN'T MEETING THE FEDERAL GUIDELINES FOR DECLINING NEW CASE NUMBERS.

(2) THE US CONTINUES TO BE BEHIND IN TESTING A KEY REQUIREMENT FOR REOPENING

(3) ANTI-BODY TESTS ARE UNRELIABLE (the story that followed implies that re-opening can't safely happen if we are counting an AB tests to contribute to the need for increased testing.)

(4) CHILDREN ARE FALLING SERIOUSLY ILL WITH SYMPTOMS THAT LOOK LIKE A RARE DISEASE -KAWASKI'S SYNDROME - THOUGHT TO BE COVID RELATED.

Let's look at these headlines:

(1) You can make this case with the data that all of us here have found fraught with the potential for drawing inappropriate conclusions from it (case #s and deaths). Sure, the numbers are up, because, duhhhh, testing is up and those numbers are real but sensible people know that more reliable trend data exists (Rt, ED ILI and COVID like symptom admissions, % of new tests that are +) that can guide states and locals regarding their phased planning going forward. I took a quick look at R(t), one of my favorites, for GA and FL, as of May 7th, both states had stable numbers below 1.0 - both at 0.86, both down from 4 weeks ago, GA was at 1.07 then. FL's % + tests is hovering between 6-7%; 11% of all + are in LTC/Nursing facilities. Back those out and the over-all FLrate is around 5.5%.

TBF, some of the data I follow is up over the last 4 days in both GA and FL but by margins in the 100ths. The 4w, 10d trends remain downward pointing.

I've already complained about this ..... broadcast media is routinely failing to mention any of this to balance their COVID report. I will hear it on occasions but not anywhere near enough to tamp down the fear that is having a significant effect on what should be a cautiously responsible return to economic activity. Instead the narrative is keeping most people hunkered down while the crazies who don't give a shit make the news and this is interpreted by consumers that nobody gives a shit and are being careless. Of course, this feeds back into hunkering down. Not good.

(2) talent's post and link to the NRO piece covers this adequately. It is a huge deal; a huge disservice to Americans.

(3) Sure, of course they are. I could write long paragraphs (AA like's this style) about the complexity of the math involved in calculating sensitivity and specificity (determines if a particular test is worth a shit) and the different kinds of serology testing including AB tests that are out there. I see AB tests being dumped into a big funnel - lots of them. The top of the funnel is wide and can handle a lot of them, the bottom of the tunnel is narrow and only some of them will fit through the narrow opening. FFS, be patient. AB tests will get better, natural selection of one's that work will occur due to a lot factors impinging on that. The important thing right now is that AB testing is not very useful right now; it will be in 3-6 months and going forward. BTW, as I write this I am listening to a web based medical seminar on Serology testing. The gist: Yes, it's available but were not recommending any specific test. Why? Because it depends on what you want to learn from these tests in a particular cohort and what the strengths and weaknesses of each test are.

(4) One line at the end of this story - and that after pictures of small children intubated in ICU beds - "it's uncertain that this is COVID related" tells everything you need to know but viewers are so overwhelmed with the visuals of children in distress, worried about their own kids, that they don't hear that line...... and never mind, in the big scheme of things, it was also reported that there were 63 cases of this strange illness in the US. 63! How many millions of kids live in the US. These cases are so few in number that NOTCHING can be concluded about them. NOTHING.

I hate it that kids suffer but reporting like this is negligent. Think historically. During WWII, news reels featured victorious troops marching through France with dead Germans hanging out of blown up tanks. In the pacific, Victory at Sea news films predominated that later became a series that I certainly watched many times - it was inspiring. Never mind that there was no news reel film of the horrors that American soldiers, sailors and airmen experienced - that came later.

Yet, the narrative from the news media - in the US a media that has been and should be considered trustworthy - is failing us. Big time.

[iam416]

Your best post to date, Buchanan.

[CGVT]

This explains the Georgia citizens arrest law

Georgia's citizen's arrest law requires that the offender must have committed a crime in the presence of another person, or that person must have "immediate knowledge" of a crime that has taken place by the perpetrator.

https://www.gpbnews.org/post/breakin...fatal-shooting

[iam416]

Hey, I was right!

[Ghengis Jon]

Re point #3. Let's hope it's on the 3 month end of that 3-6 time frame. I think the basis of the pro/anti hype is based on the general public's oversimplification of the word "test". People tend to think that a "test" results in a yes/no, pass/fail, positive/negative result in the general sense, otherwise it wouldn't be a "test".

As someone formerly in the medical field, you think the FDA's recent corona position change of not requiring clinical trials for accuracy before commencing public testing is the right decision? I ask because I do not know if FDA approved tests go through as rigorous release procedure as drugs do. Is this straight-to-the-field guidance a nothing burger or is it a serious roll of the dice?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump blurted out that the member of Pence's staff that tested positive is Katie Miller, the VP's press secretary and Stephen Miller's wife.

[Ghengis Jon]

D Senators have proposed monthly payments to basically everyone. For my own situation (joint filer making less than $200K), I would receive $4K (joint) + $4K (2 kids@$2K each) for a total of $8K PER MONTH. And it would be retroactive to March. And I'm still "working" and getting paid.

Since Dear Leader is a multi-billionaire, why doesn't he give everyone $1M? Cost you less than $400M. Problem solved and you get re-elected in a McGovern-esque landslide! Brilliant!!


That is about the stupidest thing the Dems have proposed in about, oh, a week. I know, lets just give every family $100,000 per annum til this blows over. Let's just borrow the money since we're only $3T in debt already. No worries, the young people in this country can pay it off - they're just starting their careers.

[iam416]

LOL. That's nicely done.

Kamala has her name on it. I mean, it's not even Bernie. It's like mainstream Senators. I figure it probably means about 300M people get $2K per month. That's $600B per month retroactive to March. So, the May payment is about $1.8T. By the end of the year we'll over $6T paid.

[lineygoblue]

we are your government ... we know what is best for you .... look to us for all your needs .... we will take care of you .....just obey and stay in your homes where you are safe .... and vote democratic ....

[Jeff Buchanan]

Re point #3. Let's hope it's on the 3 month end of that 3-6 time frame. I think the basis of the pro/anti hype is based on the general public's oversimplification of the word "test". People tend to think that a "test" results in a yes/no, pass/fail, positive/negative result in the general sense, otherwise it wouldn't be a "test".

As someone formerly in the medical field, you think the FDA's recent corona position change of not requiring clinical trials for accuracy before commencing public testing is the right decision? I ask because I do not know if FDA approved tests go through as rigorous release procedure as drugs do. Is this straight-to-the-field guidance a nothing burger or is it a serious roll of the dice?

I'm going to try to keep the answer to Jon's question under 10K words ...... this will be hard. Even for me!

The best existing serologic (meaning from the blood as opposed to testing respiratory secretions) testing protocols for a disease, like Lyme, that produces a humoral immune system response has two parts to it. The first is to test for Total Lyme titer or IgG and IgM titers. In the case of Lyme disease if IgG (acute phase) or Igm (convalescent phase) antibodies aren't present, then the second test is unnecessary. The second test is confirmatory in nature.and rules out false positives. This disease and testing protocols have been around for decades so, it's been well tested, adjusted and is reliable.

Although the diseases, Lyme and SARS-COV-2, are different, the two step testing concepts are exactly the same. For COVID, the first test is the PCR thing where you jam a swab up your nose or down your throat, collect respiratory secretions on it and test those for the presence of the bad-guy COVID antigen - the PCR test sees the SARS-COV-2's genetic sequence that's specific to it. The Second test is serologic and looks for the good guy antibody - classically IgG and IgM.

Great, sounds like it's easy to test someone for the presence of COVID by PCR and then confirm that they mounted an immune response by Serologic tests, right? Not-so-fast. PCR tests are highly specific because they are based on the unique genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2. But their sensitivity is affected by dozens of factors (timing, quality of the collection, how the collection is run by the lab, etc.) If a test comes back positive, you can be confident that there was SARS-COV-2 viral RNA in the specimen collected from the patient. However, if it comes back negative, the reliability drops significantly. This is why the two step process is the best practice .... test for the presence of the antigen by PCR then confirm false positives with AB testing. Reverse false negatives if there is suspicion of disease and the PCR test was poorly run and gave a negative return.

Here are some problems:

There are people who test positive by PCR for COVID but test negative for IgG or IgM. They did or did not have symptoms but nonetheless feel fine now. Bad PCR test?Maybe. Time frame of serologic test? Maybe. One thing that's been postulated is that SARS-COV-2 produces an effective Cytokine response - another cell-mediated immune response that gobbles up the virus before it gets out of hand and produces pneumonia leading to respiratory failure and death and before the humoral immune system mounts an AB response. Another possibility is an IgA response that is not measured by classic antibody testing.

Among immunologists and virologists there are concerns that AB tests, already on the market (pre FDA imposed tighter controls), coming to market or in development that just aren't sensitive or accurate enough to be using them for certain purposes, e.g., using AB tests to increase the counting of who has actually had the virus, who can or cannot safely return to work, travel, needs PPE). Another of those purposes is big: the formulation of public health policy at national, state and local levels based on increased testing made available through AB testing. The consensus is no on that one .... yet, here we are. Many tout the arrival of AB testing to augment PCR testing a boon to containing the virus. It's not and to think it is is dangerous.

At some point, there will be enough data from these tests, improvements in QC of the tests themselves where they will be the boon that folks are too early thinking they are.

Jon I think I answered your questions but to reiterate..... I can see a need to rush any kind of test to improve testing capacity but it's just like I said about drugs. There's a process for getting them safely to market. Don't interfere with it. The roll-of-the dice thing is a bad approach because if you have bad data to inform policy the policy is shit ...... where have we seen that before.

[AlabamAlum]

LOL. That's nicely done.

Kamala has her name on it. I mean, it's not even Bernie. It's like mainstream Senators. I figure it probably means about 300M people get $2K per month. That's $600B per month retroactive to March. So, the May payment is about $1.8T. By the end of the year we'll over $6T paid.

We will devalue the dollar down to the Iranian Rial before it’s over.

[Whitley]

I raise a Spock arched eyebrow at the the $2k figure----no chance in hell of that happening. BUT I don't have a problem asking for the moon because maybe you a get a star. There is a strain of economic populism in both parties. If you could get a group like the Senators signed on (Harris, Markey and Harris) and add Sen Warren, Sen Merkley with Sen Hawley, Sen Rubio and Sen Romney you might be getting somewhere then.

There is a similar bill in the house not a surprise to see Rep Ro Khanna as a lead sponsor but it is to see Rep Tim Ryan (who is to the right of Pelosi) as the other major sponsor.

I don't think you get 2k/month. I can see 1k/mo though (even it being retroactive) and I can see it being passed in both places because you can argue that this would be direct stimulation to the economy from the bottom up.

[AlabamAlum]

Support the folks who have lost their jobs. Support some businesses who have had to shutter or have had untenable losses. No one else should get any of the money, and the ones who do qualify for cash shouldn’t make a profit off of this. If you were laid off from your $1000 a month job, you shouldn’t be getting more money for sitting at home. Printing money and throwing it like Mardi Gras doubloons off a parade float just weakens everyone’s dollar.