Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Also, a quick reminder -- as we continue to do more and more testing, case numbers are going to increase. It's like, you know, math. But, DSL and his Media allies, and their general hatred for red states that aren't behavining as if they're NYC, really have a nice little setup going -- demand more testing/scream if there's not enough testing and then, when there is more testing, scream that there are more cases. It's quite the neat trick.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Those of you who enjoy the fuck China narrative in all of this, the following is an excellent read, well written and rather convincing on it's face.

The gist of it is you have to be blind if you don't think China had intentions to inflict social and economic damage on the West, especially the US, in a long range effort to replace the US with itself as the dominant global power.

The most convincing part of the article is that while the release of the virus from the Wuhan lab may not have been intentional, the PRC (and the communist party that runs it) new exactly what had happened, earlier than December, and after it did happen capitalized on their fuck-up. The article makes the case that the Chicoms carefully, some would say skillfully, and purposefully controlled what transpired in January and into early February. Dates and Chicom actions during this time frame make a rather convincing argument that these fucks new exactly what they were doing, have done it and now it's up to the Trump administration to hold China accountable or failing that, demonstrate that the American political system and the American people are weak.

https://americanmind.org/post/the-chinese-art-of-war/

[iam416]

I very much think there's something to that. PDJT and the US were taking their toll on China. They were in not good shape before the virus. The virus happened to improve their position.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... think back to the whining about "TRANSPARENCY" from the media when key personal including Trump met in the super secret SCIF in Langley, VA. They undoubtedly discussed SARS-COV-2 as a bio attack undertaken by China.

From the more recent news that includes a good deal of angry rhetoric between the US and China over the pandemic with charges that the PRC is responsible for it and should pay-up, this after the removal of the sovereign immunity tag from them, we should take that our intelligence agencies are on to something.

This is a tough nut to crack if Western governments have the goods on the PRC. I've said on numerous occasions here, a good political start would be to align with the Chinese Nationalists in Taiwan. Playing ultimate hard-ball on trade with the Chinese is a tricky undertaking right now. The global economy is in a big enough mess already. If you flaunt a big stick, increase military tensions in any significant way, the crazy equity, futures and oil markets will get crazier.

So, I think we're seeing recognition of that by the Trump administration and words, tough talk, are about the extent of what can and should be done by the US at present. But, man, if their is an alliance of democratic powers that can get behind facts that support that China knew what they were doing with COVID and can recognize that these communist bastards are intent on ending democracy, "Katy bar the door."

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's patently obviously China lied to the world for months. And then once the virus was out their "PR Campaign" involved selling (not donating) faulty equipment to countries around the world. And demanding countries go on the record to thank China for their 'generosity'. Those two facets alone ought to be enough to get most countries in an anti-People's Republic mood. That stuff's easily verifiable and damning.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think we've worn out discussions on SARS-COV-2, the data, what's happening with curves, what the curves mean ...... all of that. We know one thing with certainty:

The pandemic will be mitigated, perhaps SARS-COV-2 eradicated as a global threat to man kind by a vaccine as novel as SARS-COV-2 itself. Therapeutics will emerge to treat the severely ill and mitigate deaths...... people will still get infected, sick and yes, some, unfortunately will die. We need to deal with that reality and move on with appropriate caution.

What we don't know is a date certain for all of this. Estimates of the length of this shit-storm, along with exit strategies vary greatly as do the long term social and economic impacts.

So, I've been reading about this today. There's one story that DSL will surely fret about ....... the disconnect between the equity markets and main street. There are plenty of bears in this discussion and I, for one, tend to agree wiht them. Most of the bullishness is based on government,, on nation-by-nation basis, and in varying degrees and methods, back-stopping business. While this has had a salutary affect on markets and propped up businesses, it is technically limited in what it can do and it's effectiveness is time limited. The teets of government will dry-up eventually and businesses will start dropping like flies - from the weak, poorly capitalized to the strong well capitalized, in that order, if economic activity doesn't pick-up along with a willingness of the consumer to go out and eat, have fun and buy shit. And, this won't happen until they finally feel safe to do so - and that will happen; when we don't know.

The second area I've been reading up on is the food supply - an interesting story. I had little understanding of how absolutely global and interconnected the food supply chain is and how resilient, so far, it has been. Incredibly flexible in terms of shifting supplies and supply chains to deliver the entire panoply of foods to places where they get sold to consumers. The problem isn't food being delivered to grocery stores and markets, the problem is people don't have money to buy it. For sure, their are bottle-necks. The meat packing industry in the US is highly concentrated so, several producers closing up due to high infection rates among employees and working/living conditions that contribute to that, produces significant up stream and down stream issues. You will know about these if you've been keeping up with the news. But because there is flexibility and plants will re-open and workers will work despite the risks - well mitigated or not - the meat and poultry shortages we see now - gee, I cant find the skinless chicken breasts I like or the center cut sirloins I like - will get solved or, if they last another week or so, I'll eat veggies and believe it or not, there is plenty of produce around. These are still a good reads on food if it's not pay-walled and I have to admit I caved today and subscribed to the Economist.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-a-severe-test

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...ge-of-covid-19

Finally, and if you made it this far you're reading my stuff because it's good even if you complain about my journalistic style and longwindedness. ......

What's going to happen to the economy? There is no way it emerges without serious, I mean 1930s shit serious, damage. In my case, I was always told my parents behaviors that involved keeping almost everything for much longer than necessary, scrimping on everything, all of that, were products of the Great Depression. Well, now my kids and their kids will be telling them, they were products of the Great Depression that was caused by a terrible pandemic illness. Unemployment will remain high for years. Business investment and innovation is going to be crippled - new ideas don't flourish and get discussed when folks are unemployed or the employed are fearful about gathering at the nearest pub or coffee shop to hang out and talk about that. Working from home is nice for some, even, it is said, productivity increases, but Zoom meetings suck and the interpersonal contact at the office that does good things will be significantly decreased.

The article that got my attention was titled the 90% Economy. Pretty sure this one is pay-walled but the gist of it is that things are going to be not just a little bit different, they are going to be hugely different in many ways. The reasons include those that I mentioned above plus these:

Fragility

The return to a semblance of normality could be fleeting. Areas which had apparently controlled the spread of the virus, including Singapore and northern Japan, have imposed or reimposed tough restrictions in response to a rise in the growth rate of new infections. If countries which retain relatively tough social-distancing rules do better at staving off a viral comeback, other countries may feel a need to follow them (see Chaguan). With rules in flux, it will feel hard to plan weeks ahead, let alone months.

Can't Start a Fire, Unemployment and it's impact





The article is really good and pretty real if not a bit depressing for an optimist like I am. Tough shit if you can't read it. I've brought some of it here above which is all I have the time or the desire to do. Sign-up to read it cheap skates.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...l-leave-behind

[Ghengis Jon]

Finally, and if you made it this far you're reading my stuff because it's good even if you complain about my journalistic style and longwindedness. ......


Really? Hadn't noticed....

[AlabamAlum]

[iam416]

Correct

[Dr. Strangelove]

Heh, I almost posted that Economist cover story, Jeff, about the weird disconnect between the stock market and the real economy. We're at the point where the DOW will jump 600 points on news that unemployment "only" went up by 3.1 million people instead of an "expected" 3.3 million because that's good news!!

Something I've been hearing brought up on CNBC a lot recently...the DJIA is made up of 30 huge corporations. The S&P 500 is much broader than that (obviously) but those are still, by and large, very large corporations. A lot of analysts have been pointing out that when you look at the stocks of small to mid-sized companies that aren't a part of either index, those stocks have been performing terribly on the whole. Investors are fleeing those and throwing money into well-known,mega-corps instead.

Quick comment on meat supplies...I went to McDonald's at lunch today and besides the fact that they stopped doing breakfast all day, I noticed that they only had 7 "value meals". I think it's normally more like 12 or 14? They haven't had any sort of grilled chicken item for weeks.

[AlabamAlum]

[AlabamAlum]

...

[AlabamAlum]

Oregon loses all home field advantage. Bucks over the Ducks by a lot.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well damn, that sucks. I had been considering that trip before all this began.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU