Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

Assuming that the NY testing accurately describes actual corona cases then (a) we're about 10X closer to herd immunity than confirmed cases indicate; and (b) the fatality rate is roughly 10X lower than confirmed numbers indicate. Even if you factor in a fairly healthy undercount in deaths, the fatality rate is less than 1%.

If it's less than 1% then reopen now.

0.9! Imperial College FTW!

[Dr. Strangelove]

No one's flying halfway across the country to eat the "6th best wings in Nebraska" or whatever. Let them reopen!!

[iam416]

Economy is fine. Keep it closed forever! Keep printing money!

[Dr. Strangelove]

The NY study is good news but it possibly says more about how the NYC area is getting closer to herd immunity than the rest of the state. Overwhelming majority of the people with antibodies were in NYC, Long Island, or Rockland/Westchester Counties. Basically the NY metro area. Upstate NY was 33% of the sample but less than 4% of the positive cases.

The other unmentioned caution is that we don't have a good handle on how long immunity lasts. I thought I ran across some medical study suggesting it could actually be quite limited but I will have to try and remember if I'm imagining that or not.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-updates-american-red-cross-antibody-tests-id/story?id=70301746

[iam416]

The NY study is good news but it possibly says more about how the NYC area is getting closer to herd immunity than the rest of the state.

So what? I'm sure there aren't a bunch of undetected cases in Antartica, either. The point is what is the actual prevalence of infection. The NY study suggests -- it's not conclusive -- that it's in the 10X ballpark. And if the NYC Metro Area gets herd immunity then that's about half the state. So, great news. There is literally no way anyone could take these results as bad news -- unless you were hoping for something much larger than 10X.

The other unmentioned caution is that we don't have a good handle on how long immunity lasts. I thought I ran across some medical study suggesting it could actually be quite limited but I will have to try and remember if I'm imagining that or not.

Again, if immunity is fleeting then re-open yesterday because we are totally fucked. Might as well just get on with it. However, I'll note that in your link there is this piece of reporting:

2:13 p.m.: South Korea health agency says virus may not live in people who were re-diagnosed


The Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that in 25 randomly selected patients, all had developed antibodies that had defensive power.

Those 25 patients in South Korea were hospitalized with symptoms at the time of the antibody testing and have now fully recovered, according to the agency.

Initially, there was concern about the effectiveness of the antibody in killing the virus because 12 of the 25 had both the virus and the antibodies. However, after attempts were made to grow the virus, it did not replicate, suggesting that the virus detected in the body may have not been live or was just viral remnants and therefore did not have the ability to infect others, according to KCDC.

In a separate study of 207 people who had been re-diagnosed with the virus, the agency confirmed that the virus had not grown in their bodies either. KCDC said it had attempted to grow the virus twice.

That's not necessarily immunity-related, but it was one of those "scary" pieces of information that came out. It now seems like it's not so scary.

[Whitley]

NSFW. But pretty much spot on with the way a lot of the people feel.

[iam416]

We're all working from home, so everything is SFW these days!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Hey look, speaking personally here. I'm edging closer and closer to accepting a rolling reopen every day. But I've got two parents with lung issues and a 90+ year old grandma. I'm going to be anxious as fuck. I don't particularly want to hear from the REOPEN NOW crowd that I'm a pussy, motherfucking, moron communist, for not immediately rolling the dice to save Sunglass Hut from closing. I get it. I'm lucky I'm "essential". It'd be a lot worse to be out of work right now. But they could maybe work on their messaging just a bit to encourage more respect for the sacrifice other families, especially the elderly, could be making to save local businesses. Cuz polls show they are wildly losing the PR battle right now and it's not even falling on partisan lines. And I have to believe the dismissive or denialist attitude towards the disease by a lot of them plays a big role.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The NY study is good news but it possibly says more about how the NYC area is getting closer to herd immunity than the rest of the state. Overwhelming majority of the people with antibodies were in NYC, Long Island, or Rockland/Westchester Counties. Basically the NY metro area. Upstate NY was 33% of the sample but less than 4% of the positive cases.

The other unmentioned caution is that we don't have a good handle on how long immunity lasts. I thought I ran across some medical study suggesting it could actually be quite limited but I will have to try and remember if I'm imagining that or not.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/corona...ry?id=70301746

You are not imagining that ....... and to quote talent, "we just don't know."

The data is all over the place. That it is highlights why vaccine development is going to take waaaaay longer than any of us would like it to. It also has something to do with why the narrative about the value of AB testing being the panacea some argue that it is. It may not be. What it probably is though is a quicker way to test a lot of people than PCR testing so, there is that.

I've read a shit ton on the two immune systems: (1) innate immune system, lymphocyte > macrophage > cytokine response (inflammatory, e.g., "cytokine storm" that can kill the patient). (2) the humoral or antibody (immunoglobulin) response producing these lasting (or maybe not) antibodies. These are the things you want to produce in a vaccine by inoculating people with an old-school, live attenuated vaccine, an inactivated vaccine, also old school, or about 5 new novel types of vaccine that have emerged out of the oncology world. There are hundreds of vaccine prototypes in the works. The leading vaccines are of the novel type because they can be manufactured more easily and in great quantities. The nitty gritty of this is more than you want to know. Just know it's hard. It's complicated. It reqires a lot of testing to make sure they are safe....... and don't kill the patient when administrated!

[iam416]

Hey look, speaking personally here. I'm edging closer and closer to accepting a rolling reopen every day. But I've got two parents with lung issues and a 90+ year old grandma. I'm going to be anxious as fuck. I don't particularly want to hear from the REOPEN NOW crowd that I'm a pussy, motherfucking, moron communist, for not immediately rolling the dice to save Sunglass Hut from closing. I get it. I'm lucky I'm "essential". It'd be a lot worse to be out of work right now. But they could maybe work on their messaging just a bit to encourage more respect for the sacrifice other families, especially the elderly, could be making to save local businesses. Cuz polls show they are wildly losing the PR battle right now and it's not even falling on partisan lines. And I have to believe the dismissive or denialist attitude towards the disease by a lot of them plays a big role.

Well, I haven't personally heard or read "you're a pussy" type comments. I certainly haven't seen them from any politician of note. Since you're rarely one to argue in bad faith, I'll take your word that Rs who want to reopen are using that language.

Now, I have read "blood on your hands" comments. And fear is winning. Easily. There is no messaging around it. There's a profound sense of fear. And if you're privileged enough then there's no significant economic cost to acting on your fear. Retirees, incidentally, have no significant economic cost to acting on their fear. There is no amount of messaging in the world that's going to change that calculus. And, btw, that's what's going to control the day.

The proposed mechanism for a gradual reopen makes all the sense in the world to me. Good luck trying to have that discussion.

[iam416]

Just know it's hard. It's complicated. It reqires a lot of testing to make sure they are safe....... and don't kill the patient when administrated!

Well, all that's well and good, but please know that we must stay shuttered until there's a vaccine.

[iam416]

We are getting closer and closer to understanding what the real numbers are. What the real CFR is. What the R0 is. How many we can expect to get the plague. At that point the numbers are the numbers. There's no escaping them. There's no vaccine or therapeutic that's going to save the day. The numbers will be the numbers. If it's 60% infection rate and 0.7% CFR then we're looking at 1.4M deaths. That's just what it is. Make your peace with it.

I think it was wise to pre-emptively try to avoid the "overrun" system situation, but the system is increasingly able to handle more and more cases, and in the outbreak center of the country there has not been overrun -- there's been no shortage of ventilators.

Moving on under a managed, cautious approach has to happen and it has to happen in the relative near future. I hope the politicians have the courage to eat that shit sandwich.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well, I haven't personally heard or read "you're a pussy" type comments. I certainly haven't seen them from any politician of note. Since you're rarely one to argue in bad faith, I'll take your word that Rs who want to reopen are using that language.

Now, I have read "blood on your hands" comments. And fear is winning. Easily. There is no messaging around it. There's a profound sense of fear. And if you're privileged enough then there's no significant economic cost to acting on your fear. Retirees, incidentally, have no significant economic cost to acting on their fear. There is no amount of messaging in the world that's going to change that calculus. And, btw, that's what's going to control the day.

The proposed mechanism for a gradual reopen makes all the sense in the world to me. Good luck trying to have that discussion.

I'm speaking more to the punditry class and the core base of the REOPEN NOW movement. Most politicians haven't been a problem. Wiz today said we've become a nation of pussies because we're not reopening everything immediately. That's what I was obliquely referencing. And there's no doubt there's a ton of denialist, bad faith argument being passed around the REOPEN crowd as well. Why else would National Review publish articles rebutting this denialism unless they were widely circulating among rightwing circles? When DeWine makes a decision to reopen, I will trust it, because I believe he's informed and is weighing the risks appropriately. I've said nothing but positive things about him since this began (except maybe that whole pre-election night fiasco, heh).

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/

Anyways, I'm mostly there. Only 0.5% to 1% dying is a hell of a lot better than 7% if that's accurate. But I won't feel good about it until a proven treatment is developed, which, honestly, is probably more important in the short run than a vaccine.

[iam416]

There will be no treatment. We will not feel good for a long time. This is a catastrophe. The Scots who scraped together sheep skulls to somehow, some way get the fuck out of heir peat-infest land of woe and emigrated to the bountiful plains of Rhodesia had a saying about it. I believe it was "Pick your poison, motherfucker."

I'm becoming increasingly optimistic that the horrific CFR based on reported fatalities is off by a lot. I told you in January that 3% is nightmare, but that 1% or less was manageable. I was probably wrong about the 1% being all that manageable -- it's still a catastrophe. But, man, I don't see any way out of this other than to eat a giant shit sandwich. The infection rate ain't changing. The CFR ain't changing. The numbers ain't gonna change.

[Whitley]

Okay this might sounds stupid...but

GR=Growth Rate?

CFR= Dead people rate?

R0=???? Infection rate maybe?