Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sorry, posted this on wrong thread at first

CDC Director warns that the second round of COVID in the fall could be worse than this one without a medical breakthrough (this was in fact what happened with the Spanish Flu)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

[Dr. Strangelove]

To clear up any false impressions, Harvard didn't get small business loan money under the PPP. They got aid under the CARES Act that was passed along to students. The Dept. of Education determined the amount of money to be allocated to each school based on student need. Here's the full 85-page list of what schools got what.

Right off the bat I can say Alabama A&M got more than Harvard did. So did something called "American River College", which is apparently a community college in Sacramento. Ohio State got basically five times the amount Harvard did.

Now one can make the argument that Harvard's wealthy enough to be helping these kids out on their own but...that would apply to a lot of schools

https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ope/allocationsforsection18004a1ofcaresact.pdf

[Jeff Buchanan]

Wow, I just looked at Section 1804 of the Cares Act. I new colleges and universities would get something to help sustain them but this is a pretty hefty cash dump.

Michigan got $40m (3 campuses, AA, Dearborn, Flint) via a calculation that looks at total student enrollment and tries to compensate for loss of revenue from tuition and board. I have no idea what M's normal revenue stream under that accounting line is. But that is a chunk of change. About 1/2 of it has to be used for emergency financial aid to students.

There's additional tax relief for payroll taxes that is substantial. I have no clue if this is going to see colleges and universities through COVID but it sure as hell can't hurt.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Could be more small liberals arts schools facing closure. I just saw yesterday that MacMurray College, a small Div III school in Illinois, is shutting down. I vaguely recall getting college mailers from them way back in the day. There's probably got to be one or two in Ohio that might face the axe soon

[iam416]

To clear up any false impressions, Harvard didn't get small business loan money under the PPP. They got aid under the CARES Act that was passed along to students. The Dept. of Education determined the amount of money to be allocated to each school based on student need. Here's the full 85-page list of what schools got what.

Right off the bat I can say Alabama A&M got more than Harvard did. So did something called "American River College", which is apparently a community college in Sacramento. Ohio State got basically five times the amount Harvard did.

Now one can make the argument that Harvard's wealthy enough to be helping these kids out on their own but...that would apply to a lot of schools

This is a good example of a fact that used to push a narrative. Now, it wasn't a particularly big narrative, but some did take it up as some sort of preposterous example. With the correct context, though, it's fairly straight-forward and, by and large, unobjectionable.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Probably heard by now but Santa Clara County, California performed autopsies on the remains of people who died at home on Feb. 6 and Feb 17 and concluded that both died form coronavirus. The Feb. 6 date is weeks earlier than the previous "official" first death (Feb 28th or 29th?). It suggests that the death toll is higher than we know but also, possibly, that herd immunity could be more widespread than previously thought?

[iam416]

Santa Clara County is where that Stanford study was done? Where they found, essentially, a huge number of unreported cases (and, hence, optimistically suggests lots of things).

[iam416]

I also didn't post this -- USC Study to the same effect as Stanford study: https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...ngeles-county/

In LA County they're estimating that something on the order of 28X up to 55X of the confirmed cases.

To me -- and just to me -- it really suggests California got some sort of pansy ass version of the virus. It's like California got to play Don Brown's defense while New York is playing the fucking '85 Bears.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Santa Clara County is where that Stanford study was done? Where they found, essentially, a huge number of unreported cases (and, hence, optimistically suggests lots of things).

I forget what the Stanford study was all about. Herd immunity? That USC study that came out a few days ago was looking for antibodies and estimated something like 250,000 people in LA County already had them. Which is way, WAY more than the known number of cases. The criticism I've seen of that study is that is wasn't especially big (750 people maybe?) and it was all volunteers. That leads to self-selecting. People who have reason to believe they've been in contact with the disease (maybe a coworker or family member had it) are more likely to volunteer.

At any rate, if it's a normal disease, finding it was circulating nearly a month earlier than we currently realize would seem to be good news...we really need to know more about how strong of an immunity is developed after having gone through it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I also didn't post this -- USC Study to the same effect as Stanford study: https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...ngeles-county/

In LA County they're estimating that something on the order of 28X up to 55X of the confirmed cases.

To me -- and just to me -- it really suggests California got some sort of pansy ass version of the virus. It's like California got to play Don Brown's defense while New York is playing the fucking '85 Bears.

Yup. Revisit that article I posted yesterday. I know it's from a Chinese source and we don't trust those much these days, but there's more and more growing evidence that there's more than one strain. And unfortunately most of Europe and NYC got the nasty one.

[Da Geezer]

If I'm any indication, the barbershops and hair salons will be packed. I'm starting to look like Grizzly Adams.

I aspire to look like Grizzly Adams.

[iam416]

The Stanford study was an antibody study that was purely volunteers and hence maybe skewed. The USC study was the same, but they tried to recruit people in a more systemic fashion. Whether that worked or not, who knows (the range is fairly large). But, the studies both show the same thing.

we really need to know more about how strong of an immunity is developed after having gone through it

Yeah, and I'm not an expert on infectious diseases. It is, to be very candid, the only thing I about which I can say that. But, it would also seem to me that if we have some sort of recognition feature in our body that we dull the impact of the disease whether we're immune or not. That is to say, we may have mechanisms that limit viral load from ICU/death levels to mere horrible flu levels.

But, sure, if we have to reset and go through this entire thing over and over again, well, then fuck me.

[iam416]

but there's more and more growing evidence that there's more than one strain. And unfortunately most of Europe and NYC got the nasty one.

Yeah. I'm considering flying out to LA and hugging every homeless person I see for a day. Gimme some of that good Cali shit, ya know.

[iam416]

It's also possible, I suppose, that Corona actually ends up taking an arc like the Flu. We get blitzed with it early and steadily develop immune responses and vaccines that ultimatley reduce the outcomes to extremely manageable.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Probably beaten this horse enough here but this NRO article makes the case well: NO, this is not "just the flu"

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/