Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Yep absolutely no problems with American economy before the coronavirus happened.

Indeed. It was humming along at about the best it's every been. Leading the world. As per usual. Then we (and the rest of the world) get black swanned and a buncha lunatics want to retry economic theories that have failed over and over and over and over and over...

[Jeff Buchanan]

There will be no economic stimulus because the only thing that the government can do is redistribute wealth at this point by printing more paper.

Hanni, that's not what's happening. Money isn't being printed. It's debt - not that that is a good thing, it isn't. But printing more money has different adverse consequences (hyperinflation) than debt does (default on interest and repayments). Most think the later presents the lesser risk. I don't have a position because I oppose the free money thing for reasons I've already posted about (small businesses won't benefit as much as the banks will by pouring more stimulus money out to consumers - the banks already getting help; probably too much of it unfettered, IMO.

[Hannibal]

Jeff -- it's still printing money at this point. If you place more dollars in the hands of consumers without any corresponding increase in the output of the economy, then you have done little more than redistribute wealth by devaluing the dollar. If no more eggs are hatched and no more cars are built, then handing everybody $1,000 just means that the eggs and cars go up in price. Stimulus is never going to work if people are essentially forbidden by executive order from providing more goods and services.

Nothing short of reopening the economy will save it.

[iam416]

The Tanzanians have a saying about this situation.

[Da Geezer]

Jeff -- it's still printing money at this point. If you place more dollars in the hands of consumers without any corresponding increase in the output of the economy, then you have done little more than redistribute wealth by devaluing the dollar. If no more eggs are hatched and no more cars are built, then handing everybody $1,000 just means that the eggs and cars go up in price. Stimulus is never going to work if people are essentially forbidden by executive order from providing more goods and services.

Nothing short of reopening the economy will save it.

Correct.

Debt instruments are just paper, too. Absent supply, more paper is just an inflation tax, now or in the future. That is why it is called supply-side economics

Does anyone here think that the national debt is going to be "repaid" in any other way than inflation?

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is an article that was published last week but, to me, it is a duhhhh ...... there are hot spots for COVID inspection that if you target these with the resources you have available, you're going to make a substantial dent in driving GR towards the <7% level, better yet, 3% indicators of virus control.

I call it"targeted testing" but note the headliner in the article is: ....... URGENT NEED FOR UNIVERSAL TESTING." That is not at all what the homeless advocates are saying. They are saying test as many homeless folks as you can as they have become significant repositories of disease. Like nursing home and some long term care facilities. Target and Test 'em.

If you don't read the article: 397 homeless people who frequent one shelter in Boston were tested. 146 of them (36%) tested +. All 146 were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Of 946 homeless folks who have been tested in Boston, overall, 26% have been positive. One person died from COVID-19, and a "handful" (number not identified in the article) have been hospitalized with serious complications. About 50 test results are pending.

You may recognize that +/- 10%, that these numbers bare a remarkable similarity to other distinct groups with representative age groups (cruise ships, prisons, USN vessels) who have undergone similar testing and tracking.

While I still remain cautious, because as talent and others here keep reminding everyone that "we just don't know," I'm leaning more and more to the position that advocates the need to loosen restrictions so businesses can, at some level, get back to business.

I am admittedly not particularly empathetic and my wife keeps reminding me of this when I start harping on the narrative that re-opening is a risk/benefit proposition with the risk of severe economic damage being greater than the benefit of continued shuttering.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/15/boston-homeless-population-coronavirus-asymptomatic-universal-testing?mod=article_inline

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hanni and Geezer, I'm not taking issue with the negative implications of debt v. printed helicopter money. Both are bad the implications are just different.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'll trade you a barrel of oil for half your ham sammich

[AlabamAlum]

People are understandably nervous about going back. Most won't come out until they think it is safe.

People will come out when they are hungry. I am not sure that we are that far away. We handed out over 2 trillion dollars a month ago. That is about 10% of the US economy for an entire normal year. If we hand out another $2 trillion, it will be about 50% of the 2020 economy. Unemployment and social program funds cannot remain solvent while their rosters increase by 1000% and while businesses fail combined with much less going in to replenish the fund in the form of payroll taxes all while planning another relief package; it will bankrupt us. We will print money which will devalue the US dollar meaning we will need to pay more out and then print more...well, you get the idea.

We have a finite number of days that we can continue this. And as the economy gets worse, that finite number gets smaller and smaller before a hard decision has to be made. There isn't a good answer, but we cannot remain shuttered that much longer.

[iam416]

Catastrophe A or Catastrophe B. That's always been the choice. Nothing has changed.

[AlabamAlum]

Correct.

And Catastrophe C is that we get both. Economic failure, civil unrest, AND the virus still wreaking havoc.

[Hannibal]

[Hannibal]

Ohio school is officially out for the year (physically, at least). No surprise there.

Edit: I mean school year, not calendar year. No answer on this fall yet.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Pickaway added another 800 cases just since yesterday so I'm assuming the prison down there is rife with covid like the one in Marion. Pickaway has almost as many as Franklin County now!

[Hannibal]