Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

If you lift the measures as if there was nothing to worry about you will get mass death. I'm not sure why it's so complicated to understand that, with these lockdown measures we have hospitals fully devoted and filled with COVID patients. A hospital with at maximum 20 ICU beds had to be retrofitted for almost 60.beds of COVID patients.

And this "argument" is exactly why it's going to be impossible for open up the economy for MONTHS. Not just in May. Not just in June. Not just in July. The "mass death"/"burying people in Central Park!' argument will carry the day over all. It's really that simple. That's the losing hand these decision-makers have been dealt -- you get to OWN Catastrophe A or Catastrophe B. And make no mistake, the economic consequences are going to be catatstrophic.

Also of note, hospitals in places aren't overrun are running half vacant and people with real medical issues are staying at home because of the Wuhan virus. It's quite the dichotomy. A few hospitals overrun; the vast majority are tumbleweed.

[froot loops]

And this "argument" is exactly why it's going to be impossible for open up the economy for MONTHS. Not just in May. Not just in June. Not just in July. The "mass death"/"burying people in Central Park!' argument will carry the day over all. It's really that simple. That's the losing hand these decision-makers have been dealt -- you get to OWN Catastrophe A or Catastrophe B. And make no mistake, the economic consequences are going to be catatstrophic.

Also of note, hospitals in places aren't overrun are running half vacant and people with real medical issues are staying at home because of the Wuhan virus. It's quite the dichotomy. A few hospitals overrun; the vast majority are tumbleweed.

Even in the hospitals that are fully maximized for these patients have floors that could have tumbleweeds. There is a path to somehwat opening stuff up but it's going to take a lot of work and I don't think that work is happening at the scale it needs to be done at.

[CGVT]

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[froot loops]

Right now the US is clipping along at nearly 2k a day death rate, some of the hotspots are showing signs they might have peaked but that's with the lockdown measures being in place for 3-4 weeks.

[iam416]

The ultimate question is going to be whether we bite the bullet or wait for the vaccine. At some point we have to acknowledge that lots of people are going to get this and move on while trying to do so in a way that does not create situations were our medical system is unable to treat patients. Even in NY, Cuomo has explicitly stated that no one is dying because they aren't getting treatment. That, to me, is the biggest concern. But it highlights that "mass death" is coming if you re-open at all. There is no play call for this that avoids that if we start to go back to work.

If folks are viewing this as a plan to avoid "mass death" then the soliution is to not catch the virus and you better then hunker down until next summer -- if we're lucky -- when a vaccine is available. That can't be the plan.

[iam416]

Right now the US is clipping along at nearly 2k a day death rate

Right. And the EU Big 5 are at about 2500. That's just what it is. And while there are positive signs because growth rates are decreasing, the absolute numbers are going to be in that general range. That's what it is. And, as you noted, that's with lockdowns. It's sure as shit not going to be any better under any re-opening plan. There is no play call for 3rd and 44 (unless you're Miami against ND in 1989).

It really is, IMO, a question of wait for the vaccine or not.

[AlabamAlum]

[THE_WIZARD_]

Where is the capital of Zimbabwe?

In a Swiss bank account.

[Whitley]

The ultimate question is going to be whether we bite the bullet or wait for the vaccine. At some point we have to acknowledge that lots of people are going to get this and move on while trying to do so in a way that does not create situations were our medical system is unable to treat patients. Even in NY, Cuomo has explicitly stated that no one is dying because they aren't getting treatment. That, to me, is the biggest concern. But it highlights that "mass death" is coming if you re-open at all. There is no play call for this that avoids that if we start to go back to work.

If folks are viewing this as a plan to avoid "mass death" then the soliution is to not catch the virus and you better then hunker down until next summer -- if we're lucky -- when a vaccine is available. That can't be the plan.

Things needed for start opening up again (IMO)

1) Mass testing to determine how widespread this is. We are a few weeks from producing enough tests to do that. Ideally, there would at home tests that are easy to do. Probably a few weeks away from that.

2) Antibodies testing. This will at least determine if you have had it. The next part will be to determine if people have immunity after getting it. And if they do for how long and how effective the immunity is. This where what is going on in South Korea is so important. WHO is investigating around 100 cases where people had the corona virus got over it and then they tested them a few days after being released from the hospital (with negative test results) and they tested positive.

That raises some questions and disturbing questions. Most likely case is that these tests malfunctioned. BUT if this was not because of faulty tests and they were not reinfected then the virus reactivated itself and that opens a whole new can of worms

3) Enough supplies for the hospitals for the inevitable second wave (and maybe third wave) to happen.

[froot loops]

The ultimate question is going to be whether we bite the bullet or wait for the vaccine. At some point we have to acknowledge that lots of people are going to get this and move on while trying to do so in a way that does not create situations were our medical system is unable to treat patients. Even in NY, Cuomo has explicitly stated that no one is dying because they aren't getting treatment. That, to me, is the biggest concern. But it highlights that "mass death" is coming if you re-open at all. There is no play call for this that avoids that if we start to go back to work.

If folks are viewing this as a plan to avoid "mass death" then the soliution is to not catch the virus and you better then hunker down until next summer -- if we're lucky -- when a vaccine is available. That can't be the plan.

Even when Cuomo says that, he may be technically correct but he has hospitals that aren't doing much else and he has field hospitals taking patients. That is untenable as much as the lockdowns are. The hospital systems are deploying nursing students who haven't passed their boards into ICU environments. They are importing agency nurse from other states with the lure of salaries that would be $200k over a year. In short they are using every weapon in their arsenal to care for those patients.

When I spoke of mass death in the earlier post, it was like if it you lift lockdowns with no restrictions. Clearly when they open up stuff there is going to need to be some sort of rational strategy that mimics what some of the other countries do. That means some sort of mix of mass testing, contact tracing, ramping up the production of masks and other things. I think it is clear we won't have this sort of shutdown until a vaccine is ready, but I do think society/economy is going to hobble along until there is some vaccine and some therapeutics to deal with it.

[iam416]

1) Mass testing to determine how widespread this is. We are a few weeks from producing enough tests to do that. Ideally, there would at home tests that are easy to do. Probably a few weeks away from that.

2) Antibodies testing. This will at least determine if you have had it. The next part will be to determine if people have immunity after getting it. And if they do for how long and how effective the immunity is. This where what is going on in South Korea is so important. WHO is investigating around 100 cases where people had the corona virus got over it and then they tested them a few days after being released from the hospital (with negative test results) and they tested positive.

That raises some questions and disturbing questions. Most likely case is that these tests malfunctioned. BUT if this was not because of faulty tests and they were not reinfected then the virus reactivated itself and that opens a whole new can of worms

3) Enough supplies for the hospitals for the inevitable second wave (and maybe third wave) to happen.

Yeah, I don't really disagree with any of this. I think we're on pace to get things up and running in a month. I'm very much not sure, however, if we're prepared to accept our fate even if we try our best mitigation efforts.

The re-activation scenario is rather horrifying. AA posted that last week, I think. At that point I'm off to the gun store and dry good store and preparing for end times.

[iam416]

but I do think society/economy is going to hobble along until there is some vaccine and some therapeutics to deal with it

That's the other reality. The government can re-open tomorrow, but the I think the masses are scared to death. Until you alleviate that fear you're fucked.

[Hannibal]

If you lift the measures as if there was nothing to worry about you will get mass death. I'm not sure why it's so complicated to understand that, with these lockdown measures we have hospitals fully devoted and filled with COVID patients. A hospital with at maximum 20 ICU beds had to be retrofitted for almost 60.beds of COVID patients.

Except that countries such as Sweden that have not implemented these measures are not getting mass death, and the same people who predicted mass death even AFTER social distancing began have already been proven wrong by one or two orders of magnitude. So hopefully you'll pardon me if I am skeptical that the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression is a small price to pay for saving the lives predicted by models that literally do not have a single successful prediction under their belt.

The model that I use is that calamities predicted by people calling for government action are always too large and the economic consequences predicted by those actions are always too small. That model proved to work once again in this case (notice how unemployment claims have been consistently above expectations).

If you guys think this is fun, wait until President Ocasio-Cortez calls for an economic shutdown to address climate change as a public health issue.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Except that countries such as Sweden that have not implemented these measures are not getting mass death, and the same people who predicted mass death even AFTER social distancing began have already been proven wrong by one or two orders of magnitude. So hopefully you'll pardon me if I am skeptical that the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression is a small price to pay for saving the lives predicted by models that literally do not have a single successful prediction under their belt.

The model that I use is that calamities predicted by people calling for government action are always too large and the economic consequences predicted by those actions are always too small. That model proved to work once again in this case (notice how unemployment claims have been consistently above expectations).

If you guys think this is fun, wait until President Ocasio-Cortez calls for an economic shutdown to address climate change as a public health issue.

Amen Hanni...amen.

[AlabamAlum]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/14/sweden-22-scientists-say-coronavirus-strategy-has-failed-as-deaths-top-1000/#3b44c93c7b6c

It will be interesting to follow.