Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Ohio update:

Cases: 2902 ==> 3312 ==> 3739 ==> 4043 ==> 4450 ==> 4782 ==> 5148 (7.7%)
Deaths, 65 ==> 81 ==> 91 ==> 102 ==> 119 ==> 143 ==> 167 ==> 193 (15.5%)
Hospitlizations 679 ==> 802 ==> 895 ==> 1006 ==> 1104 ==> 1214 ==> 1354 ==> 1495 (10.6%)
ICUs 222 ==> 260 ==> 298 ==> 326 ==> 346 ==> 371 ==> 417 ==> 472 (13.7%).

We're probably at point where we can say, with some confidence, that DeWine's social distancing orders have paid dividends. It's going to at least a week for the cases to double from 2902 to 5800. Hopefully hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths start to get under 10% growth, too.

[Hannibal]

Try to imagine for a moment the squealing that you would be hearing on TV if the gender death rates from the Kung Flu were reversed.

[iam416]

Correct.

[iam416]

NY's data portal: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov...253Atoolbar=no

Pretty interesting. In terms of sex, Men are 61% of the deaths. In terms of race, the numbers track pretty closely to actual population distributions in NYC. Asians are doing the best; "brown" people are doing slightly worse (about +5% over actual population distribution). Given that NY has accounted for over 40% of the deaths in the US, these are far more statistically significant numbers than, say, death distribution in Chicago or Ohio or Florida.

The 93% of the deaths are in people over 50 and 83% are over 60.

If you were looking at that data, you'd conclude that being a man over 50 with a comorbidity puts you in a tight spot.

[Dr. Strangelove]

May have heard this but New York's going to start reporting "suspected" COVID deaths in a separate category to include people who died at home. In normal times, about 25 people die on average at home around New York City any given day.

On Monday the number was 280 and nearly 2200 the past two weeks. The fire department says the same two weeks last year saw only ~450 deaths at home.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ny-as-covid-19

[AlabamAlum]

May have heard this but New York's going to start reporting "suspected" COVID deaths in a separate category to include people who died at home. In normal times, about 25 people die on average at home around New York City any given day.

On Monday the number was 280 and nearly 2200 the past two weeks. The fire department says the same two weeks last year saw only ~450 deaths at home.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ny-as-covid-19

But there are A LOT more people actually 'at home' right now. Would like to see total deaths this year vs last.

[Dr. Strangelove]

But there are A LOT more people actually 'at home' right now. Would like to see total deaths this year vs last.

Not sure about New York (I'll look around) but I know that in the worst hit parts of Italy the total deaths are way up.

[AlabamAlum]

Not sure about New York (I'll look around) but I know that in the worst hit parts of Italy the total deaths are way up.

I have no doubt. Just a fucking disaster.

[AlabamAlum]

Oh, and Twitter Right Wing Nuts are convinced the death toll is a Fake News Deep State fraud enacted to control the populus. They don't have a good answer for why Trump is part of it, though.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Finally, something to horrify AA with

As the virus filters out to rural America, one by one our Vienna Sausage plants are shutting down

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/business/meat-plant-closures-coronavirus/index.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Ohio update:........ We're probably at point where we can say, with some confidence, that DeWine's social distancing orders have paid dividends. It's going to at least a week for the cases to double from 2902 to 5800. Hopefully hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths start to get under 10% growth, too.

Every state is flattening the curve when you look at them normalized to population. The US GF over the last 3d, for example, is 1.14 .....1.13......1.12. For ohio its generally following that sort of "flattening." FL is too 1.16 ......1.14........1.12.

If you look globally, that is the unmistakable pattern in every country except, drum roll, Japan (and Quatar).

While the COVID data is getting more robust, fine grained and probably more predictive of outcomes, where over-focusing on it. Frankly, I don't think we know with certainty that mitigation measures being taken in the US or the states or the counties or localities are effective on the state, county or local level. Effectiveness is probably regional. Sure, it looks like it's effective but is it really? I do believe we need the data to inform public health policy and questions involving how the world in general and the US in particular will open back up for business. But let those folks deal with it. The general public needs to hear less about it .... for now.

This is a quote from an email I received today from one of the docs in our group discussing this. Needless to say he is former Marine that I flew in Vietnam with who left the service after 6y (I stayed in for 20) and became a Pediatrician. He's still practicing at the age of 75 in CA:

Our country is getting a huge disservice from all politicians and the news media. Instead of focusing on what efforts are being done to protect people and current therapies, they (the press and our politicians) just go on and on about deaths and new cases with graphs. An analogy to me that is stark....In Dec 1972 as I was doing my job jamming the shit out of every radar the North Vietnamese with their Ruskie advisers were aiming (their SA2 AA missiles) at us, I did not stop to worry and focus on the B-52s floating to the ground in big balls of fire. Yep, there were casualties, but we had a battle to fight and mourning and addressing the losses and causes could come later. We see our Congress trying to start hearings as to why POTUS mislead us and POTUS can't keep his finger off his Twitter Box! We need to focus on what we need to do today and prepare for the future, not grovel about what happened.

These are the things we ARE talking about:

Convalescent Serum - possibly provides antibodies to COVID (and I suspect competent RBCs)

Administering Packed RBCs to critical patients along with HydroxyQ in patients that can tolerate it and an anti-retroviral (e.g. Remdesivir or others) to counter hypoxia, prolong life and let the humoral immune system eradicate the virus.

These are just two innovative approaches by docs whose boots are on the ground, in the ICUs, trying to keep their patient's alive and it's working.

Regardless, I think the messaging coming out of the mouths of public health officials is pretty much on point. This ain't over ...... by a long shot and returning to normal as defined by that term pre-COVID isn't going to happen, at all. We will be scared by this pandemic and the world will change dramatically as COVID ebbs either naturally (or possibly not fully), through effective drug treatment or with a vaccine.

By the same token, Americans need to know that there are heroes out there - both individuals and organizations - doing great medical work in the face of exceedingly trying and heart breaking conditions. We should be encouraged by that. We should be encouraged by the reality that corporations and smaller companies that survive will change drastically in the coming months and probably years. New technologies will emerge, new supply chains will develop, trade wars will deescalate by the sheer necessity of improving a county's economic survivability. I would not be surprised to see in the medium term (over the next 5 years) less cross boarder dependency. I am certain global economies will recover.

..... and I just recovered my top ranking as long poster in this forum from DSL.

[iam416]

AA:

I've started playing online chess again. My opening play is consistently horrific. However my middle game and end game is much stronger. I've routinely salvaged bad positions for righteous victories against 1150 patzers. But, right now I'm completely uncomfortable playing against d4 and also playing d4. I guess I should brush up on my openings.

[AlabamAlum]

AA:

I've started playing online chess again. My opening play is consistently horrific. However my middle game and end game is much stronger. I've routinely salvaged bad positions for righteous victories against 1150 patzers. But, right now I'm completely uncomfortable playing against d4 and also playing d4. I guess I should brush up on my openings.

[iam416]

I'm playing 30m. I'm still very much getting back into "form." Should be back up to 1500 by the time this fiasco ends!

[AlabamAlum]