Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

I really really don't get why so many rightwing folks are pushing arguments like this and insisting fear of COVID-19 is way overhyped.

I'm not so sure it's "rightwing" -- the Guardian (I think) did an article on how Italy and Germany were counting deaths and noted Italy was counting anyone who had corona while Germany was only counting those who they could attribute the death to corona.

Now, I'm with you and Italy (and most people). Just because you have asthma or hypertension or whatever doesn't mean you're going to die in 2 weeks. Corona did that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Regarding the national shaming of FL/Desantis ........like I said. It's political theater. Recrimination at it's worst.

One of the issues that every state governor faces over state wide "stay-at-home" declarations is enforcement. Very early on, in FL at least, I know this was on the minds of the FL legislature and the Governor's office. 2 weeks ago, the discussions were in the news here with most FL decision makers along with local mayors, police and sheriff's offices in favor of local decision making and implementation of restrictive orders based on available resources to enforce them. Issuing these kinds of orders are one thing. Enforcing them are another. What you end up with is law enforcement resources focused on policing movement and not crime.

I've not seen a state by state accounting of how the various states are enforcing restrictions on personal movement and business closures. Here in FL, when Broward and Miami Dade mayors closed the beaches - and that was on March 15th - beach goers moved north en masse. To Pompano, Boca, West Palm -That's where the pictures came from. As those municipalities and county managers took note of this, law enforcement in those locales disbursed crowds, the word went out for spring breakers to head home.

That same weekend of March 13th, coastal FL, almost to a county, closed restaurants and bars. Inland counties did not - there were no cases in some of them and apparently contained in others. That remains to be the case. Covid-19 infections growth is in the high density population counties. It's minimal elsewhere in FL. Desantis pursued a reasonable course of letting local authorities manage their citizen's public health while issuing general guidance through the states Surgeon General. I recall seeing his presser on his plan on Monday, March 16th. Compared to what I was aware of in Georgia, whose governor is Republican Brian Kemp, I was impressed with Desantis both in his public appearances and how he was managing the public health crisis in FL.

By Wednesday, Desantis announced that one of his concerns was New Yorkers fleeing the NYC lock-down. He asked Cuomo to work with him to limit movement of New Yorkers from that state to FL. Steps were taken to do that to include screening passengers arriving from NY at major FL airports and isolating (enforced by public health officials doing tracing) travelers showing symptoms. He directed state police to start stopping cars with out of state license plates traveling south on I95 and East from NO, on I10 and screening them. Monroe Co. that encompasses the FL keys, stopped non-residents from heading South on US 1. Hundreds were turned back. I don't know of any other Governor that took those kinds of steps.

While state numbers put FL in the top 10 of total COVID-19 cases nation wide, I'm unaware of any crisis in Florida's hospital system like we are hearing of in NY, CA and WA. Observationally and around where I live in Fort Lauderdale, people are taking this seriously. I don't see any foolishness. A whipping boy is always a popular approach taken by the national press. As you can imagine, I'm appalled by it. Focus on the facts, look forward and deal with what's on your plate at the moment, remain positive.

You can play around with this dash-board from FL that will bring some clarity to the job FL is doing in facing COVID-19. Things aren't perfect here. They aren't perfect anywhere but this isn't about Desantis, who, IMO, is doing as good of a job, if not better than, the poster boys getting positive press.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

[UMStan White]

"Look, this thing is going to end before any of us here are likely to die ..... me and AA - two old farts - not withstanding."

So we don't count Geezer and me?

[iam416]

You can play around with this dash-board from FL that will bring some clarity to the job FL is doing in facing COVID-19. Things aren't perfect here. They aren't perfect anywhere but this isn't about Desantis, who, IMO, is doing as good of a job, if not better than, the poster boys getting positive press.

Thanks, Jeff. That's a good explanation of what is going on in Florida. That was my basic understanding, but I appreciate the details.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Regarding the national shaming of FL/Desantis ........like I said. It's political theater. Recrimination at it's worst.

One of the issues that every state governor faces over state wide "stay-at-home" declarations is enforcement. Very early on, in FL at least, I know this was on the minds of the FL legislature and the Governor's office. 2 weeks ago, the discussions were in the news here with most FL decision makers along with local mayors, police and sheriff's offices in favor of local decision making and implementation of restrictive orders based on available resources to enforce them. Issuing these kinds of orders are one thing. Enforcing them are another. What you end up with is law enforcement resources focused on policing movement and not crime.

I've not seen a state by state accounting of how the various states are enforcing restrictions on personal movement and business closures. Here in FL, when Broward and Miami Dade mayors closed the beaches - and that was on March 15th - beach goers moved north en masse. To Pompano, Boca, West Palm -That's where the pictures came from. As those municipalities and county managers took note of this, law enforcement in those locales disbursed crowds, the word went out for spring breakers to head home.

That same weekend of March 13th, coastal FL, almost to a county, closed restaurants and bars. Inland counties did not - there were no cases in some of them and apparently contained in others. That remains to be the case. Covid-19 infections growth is in the high density population counties. It's minimal elsewhere in FL. Desantis pursued a reasonable course of letting local authorities manage their citizen's public health while issuing general guidance through the states Surgeon General. I recall seeing his presser on his plan on Monday, March 16th. Compared to what I was aware of in Georgia, whose governor is Republican Brian Kemp, I was impressed with Desantis both in his public appearances and how he was managing the public health crisis in FL.

By Wednesday, Desantis announced that one of his concerns was New Yorkers fleeing the NYC lock-down. He asked Cuomo to work with him to limit movement of New Yorkers from that state to FL. Steps were taken to do that to include screening passengers arriving from NY at major FL airports and isolating (enforced by public health officials doing tracing) travelers showing symptoms. He directed state police to start stopping cars with out of state license plates traveling south on I95 and East from NO, on I10 and screening them. Monroe Co. that encompasses the FL keys, stopped non-residents from heading South on US 1. Hundreds were turned back. I don't know of any other Governor that took those kinds of steps.

While state numbers put FL in the top 10 of total COVID-19 cases nation wide, I'm unaware of any crisis in Florida's hospital system like we are hearing of in NY, CA and WA. Observationally and around where I live in Fort Lauderdale, people are taking this seriously. I don't see any foolishness. A whipping boy is always a popular approach taken by the national press. As you can imagine, I'm appalled by it. Focus on the facts, look forward and deal with what's on your plate at the moment, remain positive.

You can play around with this dash-board from FL that will bring some clarity to the job FL is doing in facing COVID-19. Things aren't perfect here. They aren't perfect anywhere but this isn't about Desantis, who, IMO, is doing as good of a job, if not better than, the poster boys getting positive press.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...8ddedb9b25e429

To be fair here, it seems like California and especially Washington managed things well after the initial flood of cases around Seattle. The new cases and deaths out of Washington have slowed a lot in the past week or two. New York will be bad but like Talent has said a couple of times, there's only so much anyone could have done with a population that dense.

Right now I'm worried about places like New Orleans that have lousy hospital systems to begin with. I was surprised to learn that Georgia has some really badly regarded hospitals.

[froot loops]

Regarding the national shaming of FL/Desantis ........like I said. It's political theater. Recrimination at it's worst.

One of the issues that every state governor faces over state wide "stay-at-home" declarations is enforcement. Very early on, in FL at least, I know this was on the minds of the FL legislature and the Governor's office. 2 weeks ago, the discussions were in the news here with most FL decision makers along with local mayors, police and sheriff's offices in favor of local decision making and implementation of restrictive orders based on available resources to enforce them. Issuing these kinds of orders are one thing. Enforcing them are another. What you end up with is law enforcement resources focused on policing movement and not crime.

I've not seen a state by state accounting of how the various states are enforcing restrictions on personal movement and business closures. Here in FL, when Broward and Miami Dade mayors closed the beaches - and that was on March 15th - beach goers moved north en masse. To Pompano, Boca, West Palm -That's where the pictures came from. As those municipalities and county managers took note of this, law enforcement in those locales disbursed crowds, the word went out for spring breakers to head home.

That same weekend of March 13th, coastal FL, almost to a county, closed restaurants and bars. Inland counties did not - there were no cases in some of them and apparently contained in others. That remains to be the case. Covid-19 infections growth is in the high density population counties. It's minimal elsewhere in FL. Desantis pursued a reasonable course of letting local authorities manage their citizen's public health while issuing general guidance through the states Surgeon General. I recall seeing his presser on his plan on Monday, March 16th. Compared to what I was aware of in Georgia, whose governor is Republican Brian Kemp, I was impressed with Desantis both in his public appearances and how he was managing the public health crisis in FL.

By Wednesday, Desantis announced that one of his concerns was New Yorkers fleeing the NYC lock-down. He asked Cuomo to work with him to limit movement of New Yorkers from that state to FL. Steps were taken to do that to include screening passengers arriving from NY at major FL airports and isolating (enforced by public health officials doing tracing) travelers showing symptoms. He directed state police to start stopping cars with out of state license plates traveling south on I95 and East from NO, on I10 and screening them. Monroe Co. that encompasses the FL keys, stopped non-residents from heading South on US 1. Hundreds were turned back. I don't know of any other Governor that took those kinds of steps.

While state numbers put FL in the top 10 of total COVID-19 cases nation wide, I'm unaware of any crisis in Florida's hospital system like we are hearing of in NY, CA and WA. Observationally and around where I live in Fort Lauderdale, people are taking this seriously. I don't see any foolishness. A whipping boy is always a popular approach taken by the national press. As you can imagine, I'm appalled by it. Focus on the facts, look forward and deal with what's on your plate at the moment, remain positive.

You can play around with this dash-board from FL that will bring some clarity to the job FL is doing in facing COVID-19. Things aren't perfect here. They aren't perfect anywhere but this isn't about Desantis, who, IMO, is doing as good of a job, if not better than, the poster boys getting positive press.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...8ddedb9b25e429

From a Michigander's POV I think a statewide stay-at-home order is more effective than letting individual counties and municipalities do it. In Michigan, most everything was closed down well before Gretchen Whitmer issued the order but once she issued it, there was a noticeable drop in traffic.

My personal opinion is that we will find out the ones who acted earlier helped slow the spread and the ones who slowly acted should have moved much quicker. I would also caution against the notion that you don't have a crisis in the hospital system. If it hits, it will hit like a Tsunami. My wife's hospital barely had a patient 10 days ago and now the hospital is nearly full and 95 percent is COVID19.

[Dr. Strangelove]

FWIW new jobless claims were way worse than most predictions: over 6.5 million. The unemployment number that'll come out tomorrow will NOT reflect all of these job losses. The data for that gets cut off somewhere around the middle of the month. It'll be bad but it's a week behind at minimum.

EDIT: For perspective, the Dispatch says more jobless claims filed in Ohio the past two weeks than were filed ALL LAST YEAR

[iam416]

My personal opinion is that we will find out the ones who acted earlier helped slow the spread and the ones who slowly acted should have moved much quicker.

I don't disagree, necessarily, with this. But, I do think the data will be fascinating (if and when we can ever look back on this neutrally). The math is fairly remoreseless. The difference in doubling time from 25% growth to 10% growth is 4 days (3 v 7). The difference between 32% and 15% is only 2.5 days (2.5 v 5). Given the extremely long case run for this fucking thing (10+ days), I'm not sure how much 2.5 days will do. 4 may matter.

However, I think the most realistic comparison is probably about 25% and 15%. I don't think you can get it much lower than 15% and I think most states, with basic measures (closing restaraunts, canceling large gatherings) can hold it at 25%. So, that's about a 3 vs 5 day doubling difference. If it doubles 7 times the 25% will be two weeks "ahead" of the 15%. So, I do expect there to be some differences over the very long haul, but I don't expect them to be significant. However, I'll gladly admit that I'm wrong, especially if it turns out that hyper cautious states were, in fact, able to stem the tide.

[iam416]

FWIW new jobless claims were way worse than most predictions: over 6.5 million. The unemployment number that'll come out tomorrow will NOT reflect all of these job losses. The data for that gets cut off somewhere around the middle of the month. It'll be bad but it's a week behind at minimum.

EDIT: For perspective, the Dispatch says more jobless claims filed in Ohio the past two weeks than were filed ALL LAST YEAR

Yeah, I mean this really isn't sustainable. Maybe we can do this for another 4-6 weeks, but in short order we're going to teeterimg on economic catastrophe. I think this will be come a bi-partisan talking point by the end of the month.

[UMStan White]

My sister and my law partner just turned 67 today. She is a juvenile diabetic and a above the knee left leg amputee. She has undergone over ten operations in the last year. She is at home waiting to die. This shit s a lot more than just statistics. I haven't posted much here as I am her main care provider. Best of luck to all of you here and when it does hit home (as it will) you won't give a shit who is to blame.

[iam416]

I've already come to grips with the fact that someone I know and love will die. That's coming. I'm just hoping it's not too catastrophic.

[AlabamAlum]

Wow, Stan. Hate to hear that.

[Ghengis Jon]

So sorry to hear that Stan. Stay strong.

You too Talent.

[froot loops]

I haven't seen enough out of the federal government to think there is any type of plan to come out of this in 4-6 weeks. Getting things back up is going to take a tremendous amount of planning and supplies. Maybe civil servants behind the scene are coming up with these plans and that is not getting publicized, I hope that's the case. The fact that most of the other countries are shut down will complicate everything. The Chinese have committed a multitude of sins that have been documented but the lies they have told in the last month have been them trying to cover and get their economy back running.

We saw with the federal government response from the 2008 crash, legislation you may think is too big isn't big enough. That's going to be the case here.

[iam416]

The fact that most of the other countries are shut down will complicate everything.

This is a huge problem.