Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

About 16% growth for Ohio today.

That'll keep the doubling rate at about 5 days if it holds. With 2500 cases currently, that means Ohio will be over 100,000 cases by the end of the month. If the rate goes down to 10% then we push that into May.

[Whitley]

I really hope you're right about this. Because I'm with you about 2% (probably closer to 3 in confirmed cases) and I'm with you 75-150M (I think it'll be way closer to 150M). Your numbers are huge in pure numbers, but even at 600,000 that's "only" 0.2% of the US population. However, if you're confirmed number goes from 20% to, say, 60% then you're looking at 1.8M. And it's 3% instead of 2% then it's 2.7M.

When I first ran the numbers the mortality rate among the confirmed cases was 1.49%. Now it is up to 2.15%. That is a very concerning jump for only like a week-ten days. I have a bad feeling that is going to be go up from there because I DO see hospitals getting overloaded.

The 20% figure is what I see thrown around for severe and worse cases. But if the real figure is 40% (what I used before because it seemed like a good number) then double that death totals to 602,000-1.29 million.

[AlabamAlum]

Just delayed daily reporting by France, I assume.

[froot loops]

At the very least they are not talking about opening back up on Easter. That shit was madness. When they said they would re-evaluate after 15 days, I thought there was an implicit belief that there was going to be at least another 15 day period after that and another re-evaluation. No news since the middle of March indicated that anything was going to be opening up soon.

If the Federal government isn't willing to issue a nation wide lockdown guidance, they really should be convincing governors to be doing it namely right now Texas and Florida. Every day these places dither the shitstorm grows. This pandemic exposes the limitiations of organizations like FEMA, it is meant to go in to a region and help in bad situations they might have to be deployed to a couple regions at one time. There is no scope for a continental wide deployment. There is no mechanism where you easily centrally direct mass production of masks, PPE, tests and equipment like ventilators with the velocity this shitstorm demands.

The numbers look bad but you hope the hotspots plateau and the places that aren't being hit right now are doing everything they can to be ready.

[iam416]

Florida isssued a stay-at-home order today. I would also assume that in places like Texas and Florida most people are already staying at home.

[froot loops]

Good, I hadn't heard that.

[AlabamAlum]

You have the idiots who get out, I think (hope) those are few. Although. I did see pics of crowds of New Yorkers gathered to watch the USNS Comfort sail into the harbor. Just frigging idiots. Of course, their stay-at-home order was just ignored.

[CGVT]

https://www.al.com/news/2020/03/when-will-people-in-south-alabama-take-coronavirus-seriously.html?fbclid=IwAR3qQIH_vazA32H0PqDBX_Kel2zLtsQ_jl5WVNZsm6HgI_Mt3FwcCb5ZwTM

When will people in south Alabama take coronavirus seriously?

Updated Mar 31, 8:28 PM; Posted Mar 31, 1:57 PM 0
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By Christopher Harress | charress@al.com
At Robinson Island in Orange Beach, dozens of boats were lined up on the shore this weekend with people walking from vessel to vessel. Others lounged in large groups on the sand. Some in groups of more than 10. It was the same scene at Hippie Beach off Dog River and Gravine Island in Mobile Bay.

And Gulf State Park Pier was also open over the weekend, bringing hundreds of people together on the narrow boardwalk.

While three quarters of Americans are now on lockdown, including shelter-in-place restrictions in Birmingham, much of south Alabama appears to be mostly carrying on as if very little has changed. Even as the numbers of those infected by coronavirus continue to surgeAL.com They left after Governor Kay Ivey decided to shut all state beaches March 19 because of the increased threat from coronavirus.

Her order was simple.

Alabama closed all beaches Alabama Law Enforcement Agency issued guidance to boaters over the weekend reminding them that social distancing must be adhered to even on the water.

While life has unquestionably changed in south Alabamaprofound as in other parts of the country where strict lock down procedures are now in place.

But with schools, churches, bars and restaurants now closed102 years ago when Spanish Flu tore through communities all across the

Governor Kay Ivey?@GovernorKayIvey#TogetherAL. #COVID19 #alpolitics https://youtu.be/QxckyuIC4Dk YouTube #StayHome ?@YouTube

[CGVT]

BTW, they had to take the rims off of the basketball goals in the parks in Mobile to keep people away

[AlabamAlum]

Yeah, people are idiots.

A NY man was showing symptoms of coronavirus, but came to the hospital to see his partner give birth

https://apple.news/AsmZCoKT8RQ2AfXdit7qIHA

[AlabamAlum]

https://apple.news/AO5CzEWXtQ7mKOwJfrRKHZA

[AlabamAlum]

[CGVT]

Holy shit!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, this thing is going to end before any of us here are likely to die ..... me and AA - two old farts - not withstanding.

Now, onto looking forward. I posted the HBR article that did a good job of explaining how the Fed's monetary policy and the US government's fiscal policy will hopefully prevent a deep recession after COVID-19 is tackled and it will be. AA said it at the start, the fucking China Virus is going to haunt us until a vaccine is widely available. I added that we tend to undervalue innovation in doing this and at the same time reducing CFR.

So, yeah, we are "rightly fucked" (talent's term, not mine) for the time being. How long is that? A year. Maybe more, maybe less. How "rightly fucked" we actually end up being is hard to say. I see all kinds of shit predicting this and that. I take it in an try to stay optimistic.

The link below is to an article in the Economist - you can read it, like I've advised before, by signing up for your free 5 articles/mo. This one is worth doing that. It asks, how high will unemployment go in the US? I'm not going to give you the answer to that question. The impact of unemployment on the economy cannot be answered in a binary way. The answer is full of nuance. Read the fucking article.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/04/01/how-high-will-unemployment-in-america-go

[Jeff Buchanan]

One other thing ..... Whitley mentioned nothing can be done or not much can be done to the Chinese. I disagree with that.

Sign a mutual self defense agreement with the Nationalist Chinese in Taiwan. We had one of those until Jimmy Carter cancelled it with strong opposition from Barry Goldwater who sued to stop Carter from doing it. SCOTUS didn't rule on Carter's action. Barry was spot on.

Fuck them if China whines ..... call it pay back for importing the Chinese Virus. If they send their Navy, we send ours, if there's a hot exchange, fine. If they don't back down, there's always other options, other tools ...... we've gotten pretty good at using them if Iran or their proxy's are an indication of that.

Oh, one more ....... the Desasntis declaration in FL today is political theater. I live here. I know exactly what Desantis has done to date and how the steps he has taken are going. He's been a target of the progressive left since his campaign for Governor. The press has enabled them at a cost to Desantis' ability to continue to do what he has done. I could go on and enumerate it. I won't.