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Just read the article linked below. Numerous experts on COVID-19 stats tout the benefit experienced by SK of mass testing. The article is long and detailed. It explains why testing isn't coming anytime soon - lack of components, test kits and reagents contributes. Moreover, the FDA basically relaxed all standards for developing test kits, throwing up their hands and saying, do what ever. That produces test kits that are prone to error.
But, lack of testing may not be the problem it has been thought to be in getting the kind of data required to inform public health policy. It seems, despite my own personal doubts about the restrictive nature of CDC's screening protocols for the test, it may be exactly what works. It's complicated but the bottom line is you end up doing a lot of bad things by not restricting who get's tested. The article makes a lot of sense but leaves me with this question: If the epidemiologists are saying test- test- test to improve the reliability of data that informs public health policy but you can't or shouldn't test everybody, where does that leave the evolution of responsible public health policy?
I'd answer this way: We have a good idea of what the CFR is - even though it's a rough estimate. We know, to a certain reliability rate, what the age stratified risk is of getting the disease. We know how many people and infected person is likely to infect someone else. With a decent idea of those things in hand, it seems to me one could do a decent predictive model, albeit with it's limitations, of the point at which the risk of returning low risk workers, as measured by the likelihood they might die or contribute to death of others, to their jobs is lower than the risk of continuing harsh mitigation and containment measures harmful to unemployment numbers.
My take on this subject is that you are never going to have perfect data and that's something that harms a good many business decisions that search for it before moving forward on business decisions. We may be in a similar place. In the current shit-sandwich, you have to make your best guess and hope it's the right one.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-widespread-coronavirus-testing-isnt-coming-anytime-soonA critical shortage of swabs and other testing components is, in many cases, making it impossible for labs across the country to expand their capacity.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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And therein lies another distinction with the flu I heard today. In the instances people require hospitalization for the flu, most are discharged within 3-4 days. With this we are talking closer to two weeks, even if not in an ICU.
But to offer up some rare GOOD news, it was revealed today that COVID-19 is not mutating much as it makes its way through the population.
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Originally posted by Ghengis Jon View PostThe 21 day lock down of India is going to hammer our heavy vehicle production. Significant quantities of components demanded globally come from India, both for OE and aftermarket. 4-6 week ocean transit time. Job layoffs are starting as Daimler and other biggies here in North America are shutting production down completely. This is going to ripple through the economy for a while. Oh, and what is one of India's other big exports? Generic drugs. And this is just India affecting our economy. Our insistence on cheap foreign product is about to seriously bite us.
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But to offer up some rare GOOD news, it was revealed today that COVID-19 is not mutating much as it makes its way through the population.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
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If the UM-OSU game gets cancelled this year I am going to talk a ton of shit that your winning streak was finally broken.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
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Last edited by AlabamAlum; March 25, 2020, 08:36 AM."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
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“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx
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Neat little story about a PhD student discovering one of the world's oldest swords in a Venetian monastery
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Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View PostAround Columbus where I live gas seems like it's been frozen at around $1.90-$2.00 for weeks even while oil kept falling. Out in more rural eastern Ohio about $1.65 is more typical. Today I saw it for $1.39 for the first timeShut the fuck up Donny!
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