Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

I agree with this except the "medical catastrophies" are regional not national.

Sure. I don't think I said otherwise. However, death comes to us all. It may be NYC's turn this week, but in 4 weeks maybe it's LA or Houston. It's coming for us all. It won't get us all at the same time, but it doesn't recognize borders.

(and I don't think Hannibal is advocating for damn the torpedoes approach)

Neither do I. But I don't think he's too far off from that. 6 weeks, maybe. If that.

[froot loops]

If we let it go, the mortality rate skyrockets. Almost all of the numbers people are posting and analyzing are based on most of the communities having some sort of lockdown. We know from Italy where they had a late haphazard lockdown that is pushed the mortality rate into the 5 percent range. You can post all of these hypotheticals of what we could do, but all of that shit takes time you can't snap your fingers and make it happen. You can create beds, you can eventually build vents and dialysis machines and create masks/PPE but you will run into a nurse and doctor shortage.

In the places that are being hit right now, hospitals are not functioning normally. They are basically a giant ER/ICU unit and that is it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If we let it go, the mortality rate skyrockets. Almost all of the numbers people are posting and analyzing are based on most of the communities having some sort of lockdown. We know from Italy where they had a late haphazard lockdown that is pushed the mortality rate into the 5 percent range. You can post all of these hypotheticals of what we could do, but all of that shit takes time you can't snap your fingers and make it happen. You can create beds, you can eventually build vents and dialysis machines and create masks/PPE but you will run into a nurse and doctor shortage.

In the places that are being hit right now, hospitals are not functioning normally. They are basically a giant ER/ICU unit and that is it.

I get this. Of course, your experience and mine are different - that regional thing. That shapes our views, right?

Are you saying we should not be investigating stratified back to work options because if we land on one we think works, implement it, it will drive up death rates to unacceptable levels?

[froot loops]

Sure you should investigate that yet, but we don't have the tools to do that yet. Not even close. Plus, putting people back on the streets because your stratification systems thinks they might not die doesn't mean they won't carry the virus.

Michigan didn't have its first case until March 10. My wife's hospital didn't have a corona patient until sometime last week, now they are running out of space right fucking now. All of this with mostly shutdown tactics for the last 12 days. Not everyone getting intubated is someone in their 70s with pre-existing conditions. People keep on searching for some quick fix answers when there isn't any.

[AlabamAlum]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Cuomo angrier and more frustrated today that supplies just aren't coming. Says ventilators virtually impossible to buy at this point & doesn't believe companies voluntarily making them can fill demand. With regards to FEMA he snaps "You want a pat on the back for sending 400 ventilators??" Says he needs at least 30,000.

Still being very careful to not criticize Trump by name but he sounds way more frustrated today.

[Hannibal]

Sure. I don't think I said otherwise. However, death comes to us all. It may be NYC's turn this week, but in 4 weeks maybe it's LA or Houston. It's coming for us all. It won't get us all at the same time, but it doesn't recognize borders.



Neither do I. But I don't think he's too far off from that. 6 weeks, maybe. If that.

[AlabamAlum]

I am not far behind you, Hannibal. Really. But we just aren't at the place where we are okay with giving someone who needs a vent 30 mg of morphine and 10 mg of valium and just letting them go. We might get there soon, though.

[froot loops]

You keep on posting as if the 1 percent mortality number is constant no mater the policy, it isn't. Again when the hospital systems get overloaded the mortality rate skyrockets.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Once again, you have to look at this regionally; you have to use a scaple not a blunt dissector in your approach to back to work. Thankfully, there is no national lock-down. Regional lock-downs are unsustainable for all the reasons we've heard and discussed here, right? The question is how long is that. I don't know but I suspect there are epidemologist and statisticians that can make an informed estimate.

On Cuomo's frustration in NY on getting supplies (and on Froot's take on Michigan): Frankly, I think Trump is about a week late if he wanted to use his war powers to direct companies to produce X numbers of stuff. OK, can't do much about that and I do think some combination, scalple like in it's approach, between letting regional market demand dictate output, and essentially nationalizing the ventilator capable producing companies nation wide and then directing production without allowing the mechanisms these companies have used for decades to match labor and resources to production capacity.

I'm a bit with Hanni on this. People have to come to the realization that people are going to die from this virus. We tend, however to see this as a binary circumstance or close to it ..... everybody dies if we go back to work, nobody dies if we shelter in place. Obviously, that's not the case. Even close to it is not the case. The key to getting back to work if, that's a well thought out chosen course of action, is to protect the vulnerable while you do that as nearly completely as you can - I think, regionally, it's possible to do that.

I don't think the time is right .... yet. I also think the right time where risk is balanced against benefit is calculable.

BTW, I want to ask talent while he's in the right mood, is HARBAUGH!!! going to rip rd a new ass-hole in c-bus this season and his Wolverines beat the living fuck out of the bucknutz?..... that's assuming of course the season is actually played and I'm pretty sure you think it won't be so, in responding, just assume it will be played.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sure. I don't think I said otherwise. However, death comes to us all. It may be NYC's turn this week, but in 4 weeks maybe it's LA or Houston. It's coming for us all. It won't get us all at the same time, but it doesn't recognize borders.



Neither do I. But I don't think he's too far off from that. 6 weeks, maybe. If that.

I wish I were wrong but Trump isn't going to give it anything like 6 more weeks. He will probably try to "reopen America" next week. Or he'll declare America open or do whatever he feels he needs to do to give him political cover for when the jobs numbers come out April 3. He's looking for scapegoats above all else. And he'll get them when no Governor listens to his proclamation that the crisis is past. They and not him will be to blame for the economy's downfall. He's made the comparison multiple times in the past couple days to regular flu and traffic accidents, saying life goes on every day despite those threats. He's started talking about how there will be thousands of suicides if we stay quarantined much longer.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This just released by the CDC. It's a chatbot to see if you need to go and get tested. It's actually pretty good in my medical opinion. I ran it with a couple of different answers to the questions the bot asks you. Came out with reasonable instructions for me given my answers in each case:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/testing.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Just now Trump said he expects the country to be fully open and "raring to go" by Easter. That's less than 3 weeks away.

[froot loops]

You are foolish if you think it won't happen in your region, I sure hope it doesn't happen in your region. My take on Michigan is about 10 days old, as in the numbers were nothing 10 days ago. We aren't even that bad yet but its going to get there.

What Jeff is talking about is not the same as what Britain was trying to do but it is similar and they did an absolute 180 on their approach when they saw the numbers. All of a sudden Boris Johnson got religion. Again if you think your economy on regional scale is going to do anything when your hospital systems are basically only devoted to fighting this, I don't know what to tell you.

[Hannibal]

I wish I were wrong but Trump isn't going to give it anything like 6 more weeks. He will probably try to "reopen America" next week. Or he'll declare America open or do whatever he feels he needs to do to give him political cover for when the jobs numbers come out April 3. He's looking for scapegoats above all else. And he'll get them when no Governor listens to his proclamation that the crisis is past. They and not him will be to blame for the economy's downfall. He's made the comparison multiple times in the past couple days to regular flu and traffic accidents, saying life goes on every day despite those threats. He's started talking about how there will be thousands of suicides if we stay quarantined much longer.

Trump won't reopen everything next week. And he already has a scapegoat for the economy -- for now at least. I think that Trump is currently on board with the lockdown more than you expect.