Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

The quarantines will not remain in place forever and will be lifted before we completely eradicate the disease. That is obvious. But I can read and I see growing noise from the viewpoints on the Right that the time to end the restrictions has come and we should just accept the losses and move on. One, that's not going to happen. Two, anyone who thinks a major city can have a functioning, healthy economy while at the same time an epidemic is raging and the hospitals are overrun is delusional. And that is what'll happen in NYC and elsewhere if we stop even trying to prevent the spread. Just reminding people to wash their hands ain't good enough to prevent hospital overload in dense areas.

That scenario is either not going to happen or it has already happened, for reasons that I have outlined previously (the virus was likely spreading at LaGuardia Airport and at Madison Square Garden for a month at least). But if it does, the problem is not an economic one. The people testing positive are still a very small portion of the population, and it is an even smaller portion that require hospitalization. And the most at-risk people have been identified. Take steps to protect these people and throw gads of money at mitigating the health risks. Have ventilator factories and surgical mask factories working overtime. Use aircraft carriers as floating hospitals. Organize "meals and wheels" programs for seniors so that they don't have to leave the house. Recognize that sick leave costs are going to be through the roof for a while. Anything that you can imagine is going to be orders of magnitude cheaper than a few trillion dollars evaporating from the economy.

[iam416]

Nobody has to tell people to go out and spend money. They will do this naturally. If anything, people need to be forced to stay home.

SOME people. SOME people will go out. But, a lot of people won't. And that still means a huge economic slowdown. And the people who are, perhaps, more inclined to go out may be the ones where money is a huge problem. They may not have the money to even spend.

There's no silver bullet. We're trying to make our best guess about what future courses will hold compared to the present. Or rather, we should be trying to make our best guess. As Kevin Williamson hits on, the cure may be worse than the disease or the uncured disease may be way fucking worse than the cure. It's pretty hard to figure that out. His analogy, and it's a good one, is that no one in the right mind gets chemotherapy for the fuck of it -- that's torture. But when the disease is bad enough it becomes not only a viable option, but one we PAY a ton of money for.

[iam416]

Take steps to protect these people and throw gads of money at mitigating the health risks. Have ventilator factories and surgical mask factories working overtime. Use aircraft carriers as floating hospitals.

Sure. But until you have the capacity to implement a mixed mitigation-prevention strategy you're sort of stuck where we are.

[froot loops]

we are nowhere close to even speaking about such a strategy. We can't even get masks for health workers. It is dire in the hospitals right now.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Meanwhile both Hong Kong and Singapore were thought to have done a great job containing the disease, they lifted their restrictions (probably prematurely), and suddenly both are in emergency mode again as a wave worse than the first hits both places, believed to be largely caused by foreign travelers. Singapore is basically shutting down all outdoor events till the end of April. Anyone coming from the US or UK will be required to head immediately to quarantine at a hotel for 2 weeks.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ork-and-school

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...aysia-12570840

[Jeff Buchanan]

Back from grocery shopping. Publix in Fort Lauderdale was stocked just fine, except for TP and disinfectant wipes and sprays. You could see certain items in short supply (beans, rice, canned goods) but plenty of fresh produce. The supply grocery chain is fine with only a few exceptions and these appear on a store to store basis. The stuff you need is out there. Panic buying is stupid and disruptive.

Great stuff here ....... people need to start thinking regionally, for now. That's because, if there is any truth, even just a little truth, to the AP article Jon linked to, the federal government did a terrible job managing the pandemic before it became a pandemic from when Case#1 arrived in Seattle from Wuhan on January 15th until maybe this week. Too late.

Messaging from the WH was inappropriate, facts were misrepresented, the public acted irresponsibly because of that and continues today to blow this off - not everyone, but enough to make it hard to stop COVID-19 from spreading in the US......"we're from the federal government and we're here to help" .....The old joke and implication that the feds will screw shit up more than provide help, is as true as it ever has been. My suspicion is that Trump played a role in this. His leadership style, in particular, is likely to have silenced critics inside the administration which allowed him to act from his gut and isolate himself from the facts.

OK, fine, now what? Well, I'll just talk from my own experience in S FL. Governor Rod Desantis is doing exactly what Hannibal, and others here, say needs to happen. Activate the FL National Guard. Protect the vulnerable, spend gads of money to do that and prepare for a shit-ton of old sick people to need care and ventilators; load up on PPE and distribute it so police, first responders and HC pros don't get infected. Test as many people in FL that you can, first responders, police and HC pros NOW ..... set up test centers, man them with folks trained to run them, get them the test kits they need, ramp up lab capability to read tests, track COVID + residents, get the ones who need care into spaces to do that. Engage research universities in the state for data crunching and fine tuning of testing and tracking strategies. So far, so good from CFR and the numbers of new cases I'm seeing.

The one thing Desantis is struggling with is controlling airline pax arriving from NYC at MIA and FTL to escape the NY's lock-down. Lots of them. All of them, he reports, are getting screened before they enter the terminal. Those that appear to be at risk are being quarantined. I'm not sure how this is going. Leakage is inevitable.

How FL responded to their case #1 on March 1st differs substantially from how the federal government provided guidance in late January. Certainly Public Health Officials in FL, learned from what went wrong at the federal level and adapted the state's testing strategy. The approach, from a medical standpoint, has been pretty good from what I'm seeing on the ground and from the FL data that's being published. We elected to stay in place here in FL instead of head to Atlanta yesterday as planned because we feel safer here than we do in Gwinnette Co, GA. Why? Surprise, Governor Kemp is a Trump lackey, pretty much mirrored Trump's bull-shit and GA, it now appears, only as of yesterday, realized that a tsunami was heading straight for them. Too late.

I listened to Governor Cuomo speak yesterday. He too is talking about a return to work in NY but unlike Trump mouthing this, he was very careful to explain exactly how this should be done. He made points that he is engaging risk management experts at Yale to help him develop a back to work plan. It's not going to be done irresponsibly if I've got the strategy right. Bottom line, start listening to your local and state officials - think regionally and locally. You don't have to ignore what's coming from the feds just filter it and compare to what's going on in your town, what people are doing and think and act accordingly.

[iam416]

Meanwhile both Hong Kong and Singapore were thought to have done a great job containing the disease, they lifted their restrictions (probably prematurely), and suddenly both are in emergency mode again as a wave worse than the first hits both places, believed to be largely caused by foreign travelers. Singapore is basically shutting down all outdoor events till the end of April. Anyone coming from the US or UK will be required to head immediately to quarantine at a hotel for 2 weeks.

Right. That's the problem. That was my unstated point in saying that known infections are at about 0.005% of the population right now. The only real way through this is a medical solution or herd immunity. If it's the latter, known infections need to increase by 8000X to get to approximately 40% of the world population. If we successfully "flatten the curve" then think about the time it takes to do 8000X. If we we don't flatten the curve think about volume of 8000X.

Of course, I guess 8000X is just 13 doubles. We're currently doubling ever 10 days (approximately). I assume that slows down as disease targets decrese.

But, it's a grim fucking picture no matter what.

In terms of the US, we're at 0.015%. We're only 2900X away from 40%!

[AlabamAlum]

[Hannibal]

SOME people. SOME people will go out. But, a lot of people won't. And that still means a huge economic slowdown. And the people who are, perhaps, more inclined to go out may be the ones where money is a huge problem. They may not have the money to even spend.

There's no silver bullet. We're trying to make our best guess about what future courses will hold compared to the present. Or rather, we should be trying to make our best guess. As Kevin Williamson hits on, the cure may be worse than the disease or the uncured disease may be way fucking worse than the cure. It's pretty hard to figure that out. His analogy, and it's a good one, is that no one in the right mind gets chemotherapy for the fuck of it -- that's torture. But when the disease is bad enough it becomes not only a viable option, but one we PAY a ton of money for.

Most of the economy will pick back up. Factory workers making durable good will want to return to work. People will want to eat at restaurants and see movies. It will be slower for sure, but not a disaster.

You can't wait for a vaccine for this. That's what -- a year? This quarantine has to be lifted before the medical infrastructure is ideal if ideal isn't achievable in the short term. If slamming the medical system is inevitable, then that shit sandwich needs to be eaten. That's the reality of the situation.

(Yes, yes, I know. I'm a terrible person for not unconditionally picking "maybe save indeterminate amount of lives" over "prevent the greatest economic catastrophe in the history of the world". )

[iam416]

Correct. But, one would think that some sort of coronavirus antibodies and some sort of biological recognition would be useful against a subsequent COVID-19 mutation or infection to at least blunt the worst case a bit. Or, at least, I would think that.

And, TBH, I'm not going to allow myself to think about a world where this is the perpetual norm. So, GFY.

[iam416]

(Yes, yes, I know. I'm a terrible person for not unconditionally picking "maybe save indeterminate amount of lives" over "prevent the greatest economic catastrophe in the history of the world". )

Well, this is fundamentally a medical catastrophe. It's fucking far from certain that your approach would "prevent the greatest economic catastrophe in the history of the world." In fact, it's quite possible that a rush (2-3 weeks) to get back to normal produces an even worse economic catastrophe. I would very much like to see modeling of various scenarios. One thing I'm quite certain of is that a rushed, damn the torpedos approach will not prevent the economic catastrophe.

[CGVT]

Hey! If we let it go, it will only kill 1% of the population.

I'm OK with that, I guess. As long as I get to pick the 1%

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, this is fundamentally a medical catastrophe. It's fucking far from certain that your approach would "prevent the greatest economic catastrophe in the history of the world." In fact, it's quite possible that a rush (2-3 weeks) to get back to normal produces an even worse economic catastrophe. I would very much like to see modeling of various scenarios. One thing I'm quite certain of is that a rushed, damn the torpedos approach will not prevent the economic catastrophe.

I agree with this except the "medical catastrophies" are regional not national. Don't get me wrong (and I don't think Hannibal is advocating for damn the torpedoes approach) I'm against what's coming out of Trump's mouth about this. I'm not against what Cuomo in NY and Desantis in FL is saying about it.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic (surprise there) but I think the data is out there to sensibly risk stratify US ctiizens and ID who can go back to work. Hong Kong and Singapore, both of whom had excellent intial responses that produced control of viral spread, demonstrate, you can't just say, "OK, everybody go back to work." From what I've read about that, both city states did pretty much that. China and SK, OTH, are being very deliberate about this. They both had a slight increase, took active measures and carried on.

[CGVT]

Another post from the FWIW department:

I hit my local Rouse's a couple times over the last couple of weeks. I buy meat and fresh stuff mostly. I don't eat much pre-made or frozen stuff. I also don't eat beans and rice or potatoes, although I keep a little on hand for the kids.

The first time I went the panic, frenzy buying was in full force. The frozen food aisle was completely wiped out. People are buying up all of the easy, pop it into the microwave type foods. Beans and rice were completely gone. There was no produce, no cheese, no bread. (No bread? WTF? Who the hell hoards bread?) No dairy to speak of and of course, no paper products. Fresh meats and seafood were readily available. There was no produce.

I also go to Sam's club a couple times a week. The first time I went, it was about the same as Rouse's, except the meat was wiped out other than the high dollar prime cuts. Even in the apocalypse people don't want to give up the cash for quality. Ha! Sam's bread was fully stocked.

I went to both stores yesterday. Things were much closer to normal. The beans and rice aisle was still empty. The tinfoil had crowd is still prepping, I guess. The frozen food at Rouse's was restocked, they even had frozen pizzas. Still no bread. Sam's had bread and their usual assortment of meat, although they still did not have any of the pre-packaged ground beef. They actually had toilet paper and paper towels in stock. They were limiting them to one pack of 45 rolls per customer. Milk and other dairy was available and limited to one per as well. The frozen food was relatively well stocked.

Thankfully, there is no shortage of beer and wine...

I guess the moral of the story is that food at the grocery stores is kind of hit and miss, but seems to be returning to normal here. If you can shop a couple times a week, you can probably maintain a degree of normalcy. The problem with that is, of course, the more you go out, the more the danger of contracting the virus is, so there is a definite trade off.

BTW, I carry a bottle of bleach water solution in my car. I spray a wipe with it and carry it into the store. I wipe my cart and my hands after I touch anything. I try to maintain 6 feet from others in the store. When I get home, I wipe off everything that I have bought before putting it away, I wash my hands and wipe down anything I may have touched. I feel that I am as cautious as I can be
I guess we'll see how it shakes out.

[AlabamAlum]

Correct. But, one would think that some sort of coronavirus antibodies and some sort of biological recognition would be useful against a subsequent COVID-19 mutation or infection to at least blunt the worst case a bit. Or, at least, I would think that.

And, TBH, I'm not going to allow myself to think about a world where this is the perpetual norm. So, GFY.