Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

For right now it is the solution for two weeks and then they are reevaluating. More solutions will come as the days go on, but yeah a total shutdown is not a viable long term option. At the same time the measures we see now didn't seem viable 7 days ago.

[iam416]

I agree with Silver. The way out of quarrantine is to test -- but probably by the MILLIONS.

Anyway, cases have doubled from March 2 to March 16. Two weeks. If that rate remains unchanged then we'll see 45M cases in 4 months.

[Hannibal]

China denied that there was even a problem until it had been allowed to spread over a month across a crowded country with huge, crowded cities. By the time that they welded people's doors shut, literally hundreds of millions of people had been exposed to it. Hundreds of millions. 81,000 people out of those hundreds of millions have it. That's .008% of their population. .0003% have died. Either it is way less likely to spread than we have been told, or it is far less lethal than we have been told. Otherwise, there would already be thousands of corpses already littering the streets in the United States. China would have literally hundreds of thousands of corpses.

This virus didn't break out yesterday. People have undoubtedly been bringing it back from China at least since Christmas. Chinese New Year happened soon enough to give millions of world travelers the opportunity to carry it back home. By now, there has been far more than enough time for it to spread and for symptoms to become apparent in those who have picked it up via community spread. The experts say that 100,000 people in Ohio have it. The fatality rate is on the order of 3%. Ergo, there will be three thousand deaths in Ohio, solely based on who was infected before the schools were shut down. 3,000 deaths minimum, assuming that The 2020 Depression prevents the spread perfectly. If the experts are right, then Ohio will see a bare minimum of 3,000 people die from this virus within the next few weeks. Period. Case Closed. End of story. If it's a tiny fraction of that amount the experts were full of shit. Case closed. End of story.

[froot loops]

Not everyone is on board with that 100k in Ohio number.

[iam416]

No. And people still aren't clear as to what we're measuring in terms of mortality. Right now, it's pretty much limited to the universe of symptomatic patients -- so probably at least upper respiratory issues. I believe the 100,000 include carriers, of which we have zero clue how many there are.

We're also not getting enough data describing the fatalities. We have data from China, but those fatalities are now only 1/3 of the total. I'd really like to see that data for the other 6000. But, my guess is they're afraid to share it because it's going to show that younger people are basically at almost zero risk. And that would be at cross purposes with trying to limit the spread.

South Korea has probably done the most tests so their numbers are probably closest to the real mortality rate -- and that's currently 1.7% dead or in serious/critical condition.

[Hannibal]

Not everyone is on board with that 100k in Ohio number.

The people who shut down the state used that number specifically. They are the experts.

[Hannibal]

No. And people still aren't clear as to what we're measuring in terms of mortality. Right now, it's pretty much limited to the universe of symptomatic patients. I believe the 100,000 include carriers, of which we have zero clue how many their are.

We're also not getting enough data describing the fatalities. We have data from China, but those fatalities are now only 1/3 of the total. I'd really like to see that data for the other 6000. But, my guess is they're afraid to share it because it's going to show that younger people are basically at almost zero risk. And that would be at cross purposes with trying to limit the spread.

[iam416]

Well, look -- there's going to periodic reassessment. I've never wanted someone's skepticism to be proven correct more than I want yours, Hanni. Hopefully we'll see data that supports your argument and we'll react accordingly. I'm not a doomsdayer, but I think this is real.

Now, the reality is that shuttering things is easy for people of "privilege" -- we're getting paid; we have money. We'll survive. It's devastating for poor folks. Fuck, if I was 30 and living month-to-month I would gladly go out and work and risk infection versus losing everything. That's a hard, hard policy choice. The thing is, though, if you get behind a pandemic then it's over. So, I tend to support the aggressive precautions provided the facts don't contradict that policy.

[froot loops]

The experts are using a WAG on that Ohio number. You can't get that number unless you are doing some sort of random testing. They aren't, in the US the testing has been focused on people who are on the verge of hospitalization.

You keep on running your mouth on these rates versus the next great depression but you avoid talking about the Italian numbers and whatever is happening in Iran. Look at Seattle's hospitals, letting it run it's course without measures is not a feasible option at all.

The CDC estimated 1.5 million deaths in the US if they did no measures. Imperial College had similar numbers. Most of your numbers are based on countries that did measures. For fucks sake the Chinese built hospitals in 10 days from scratch and they shut down their economy. I've posted links to those projections.

[iam416]

I'd love to see Iran's real numbers.

[Jeff Buchanan]

COVID-19 and the threat of a potentially unacceptable CFR is real, people. It's less real for under 50s as talent notes and the stats bear that assertion out.

If you want to understand COVID-19 you have to be willing to look at the same data that public health officials globally are looking at it to inform policy. You have to look at it with an informed eye - meaning you have to understand how errors are introduced into any of the methods used to calculate fatality and new case growth factors and then make judgments about the risk to the economy v. benefits to public health.

I mentioned that the economy will recover or not based on the combination of the monetary (that's a done deal to the extent possible) and fiscal policy of the various federal banks and governments. Lessons have been learned from past economic crisis and the tools are there. The political will to use them also seems to be there.

It appears that markets are reacting favorably today for what's been rolled out in terms of US fiscal policy and what is being said, caveats about market volatility apply. But we're hearing about helicopter cash and substantial support from the government for US business today. That's the kind of action what will mitigate the economic damage that I do think Hannibal has legitimate concerns about. I also think the ingenuity that is a part of American Capitalism is going to contribute and not in some small measure to a recovery.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Speaking of fiscal policy, I just got this in my news feeds. It's a Mark Cuban tweet. It is absolutely spot on:

Cuban.jpg

[Tom W]

Oh yes, Jeff. Unless this takes a really nasty sharp turn, or drags out into next year, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for creative capitalists to ride the rebound- and consumers will benefit with better products and services as a result. Even after a few days, it's been confirmed that there's value to be had in having good appliances, top shelf cooking equipment and comfortable furniture, We don't even need to put up with shitty customer service in restaurants and stores. These things are bound to improve.

Cable and daytime TV are still going to suck though. Can't fix everything.

[iam416]

Oh, I should also note the Diamond Princess gives a pretty good snapshot of actual mortality rates, too, I mean, it's probably not a perfect distribution of ages, but it's close enough. And everyone was testing. That's much closer to 1.5% (deaths vs recovered). It's still an order of magnitude greater than the flu, but 1.5 vs 3.5 is a huge difference.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Today's the 7th straight day the Dow rose or fell by at least 1,000 points. Nuts