Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Whitley]

Thanks Whitley, so far they have not got swamped, I pray it stays that way.

My boss asked me this weekend how bad it was going to get. I told him that we have not even started to go up the bell curve hill yet.

[froot loops]

Brits finally come to their senses.

[Dr. Strangelove]

After a week has gone by, Sleepy Joe declared the winner of the Washington primary.

[froot loops]

If that last Times story on Italy wasn't convincing, check this one out.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This link contains some pretty cool data. The charts are interactive so, I don't want to snip, copy and insert them here. Here's a couple of things I can see from the data/graphs at the first link:

Outside the US (excluding China) the global growth factor of new cases is on an exponential trajectory (A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas a growth factor which remains between 0 and 1 is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 could signal exponential growth if its sustained over time) The growth factor was 1.16 (16% on a daily basis) on 3/15 and has been above 1 since March 9th. As the data becomes more robust and accordingly more predictive, the zenith and nadir of the trajectories become more predictable and accurate.

We're obviously looking for the global growth factor to decline to <1 and stay there - that's working toward flattening the curve. We're clearly not there on a global basis.

Are US efforts working better than other countries whose worse performance containing and mitigating drags up global growth factor and by extension US growth factor? Too early to tell actually as outside China, most countries are just starting to see new cases and deal seriously with the outbreak so, they are experiencing growth factors well above 1. You can see in the headlines countries adapting approaches that seem to work and learn from the experiences of other countries where testing, mitigation and containment policies aren't working. Massive testing getting rolled out is an example.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Here's a link to a chart that compares countries by a different measure than growth factor. Instead. It compares and displays by doubling rates (just another way to describe exponential growth). When you look at this chart you have to allow for all the things we've talked about here that limit or confound the value and accuracy of collected data (different testing strategies, reporting protocols and triage approaches). Anyway, it's another cool chart. It shows the S. Koreans, through massive testing and effective containment and mitigation policy, are leading the world in flattening the curve outside of China whose outbreak, if reports from there are believable, of doing that.. Japan's numbers look good but are they? Not sure their testing strategies, reporting protocols and so forth are comparable to those of the US, SK and elsewhere.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

[Dr. Strangelove]

[iam416]

DeWine cancels primary. Judge says it must go on. DeWine has Director of Health declare a health emergency and block election. Crazy.

[Dr. Strangelove]

DeWine cancels primary. Judge says it must go on. DeWine has Director of Health declare a health emergency and block election. Crazy.

[iam416]

[froot loops]

I think every sporting event for the next 6-9 months is in jeopardy unless there is some scientific breakthrough.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think every sporting event for the next 6-9 months is in jeopardy unless there is some scientific breakthrough.

I'm a bit more optimistic ........If US citizens in current hot-spots and on a regional basis comply with the public health services directions that include disease mitigating processes (distancing, staying home, reactive and proactive closings) along with containment measures such as closing boarders, limiting air travel, the science says country's can have a profound impact on the growth factor of viral disease and in this case, COVID-19.

I've said that I think the US is, surprisingly, on a good public health course. If things work out, we'll see the growth factor figure move towards 1, then < 1, then zero. As soon as we see that downward trend in growth factor establish itself, like what we're seeing in China, Japan and SK, we're not entirely out of the woods but things can begin to return to normal.

In the China experience and soon to be the SK experience, that's looking like a 3.5 month thing. So, our first case in the US was what, January 12th? Given that the US won't benefit from the draconian containment measures imposed in China by the communists or the massive testing and case tracking quickly undertaken in SK, I'll say by mid May we'll see a downward trend in new cases established and potentially a return to normalcy. Note that that time frame is the most distant one pubic health officials are indicating they want US citizens to lay low for. Worst case late June and that's if lots of citizens ignore the official directives.

[froot loops]

Here is the report on the simulation that the researchers from Imperial College ran that quickly changed the tune of the Trump and Johnson administrations.

I think one of the key points to take away from that other than grisly death toll estimates is the fear of an outbreak reoccurring. SK has made great strides in suppressing new cases but so far they have only shown the measures taken can suppress it. The Chinese are already worried about a outbreak reoccurring in Wuhan. There was also a worrying report about one guy in Japan recruiting the virus after getting cleared 3 weeks ago.

[iam416]

Right. Suppression isn't a real fix. It's a delay. And the delay only lasts as long as you cease functioning as a normal society.

[Ghengis Jon]

"Yes'r Massa Putin, the charges have been dropped. Anything else Massa Putin?"

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/drops-case-russian-firm-accused-2016-vote-meddling-200317012914726.html

[iam416]

Initial research paper from China suggests the R value (how easily it spreads) drops as temperature and humidity increase: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3551767

As I've said, it'll be interesting to follow the cases in warm places like, say, India -- where an outbreak should spread faster than gonorrhea at a bowling alley where Mrs. Wizard is plying her trade.