Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Whitley]

Pete can say a lot of nice sounding words but says nothing.

[iam416]

Correct.

[iam416]

[Cody_Russell]

[Whitley]

Correct.

And that is Pete's biggest problem. I still don't know what the hell he stands for outside of he will flow (like most politicians) to whatever is the easiest way to power. Being a mayor of a small city is not good enough to be running for president. Now, he is a smart guy and has run the best campaign he can given the cards he was dealt but he is going to really struggle to do anything in Nevada and SC.He will get some delegates but I don't think it will be enough to be a factor in the convention.

[iam416]

Right. He's good if you watch him for 2 minutes. He's less good if you watch for 20 minutes. If you've seen 10 of his answers you know that he says absolutely nothing.

I did like his line about Bernie and Bloomberg, but he's a lightweight right now. I'd still vote for him over PDJT (which I can't say about other Ds), but I much prefer Klobuchar or Sleepy Joe.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Erdogan claims to have killed 50 Syrian soldiers in retaliation for an airstrike earlier today that killed two Turkish soldiers. They're also claiming to have begun an "offensive" to push Syria back from the border.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/turkey-more-than-50-syrian-government-forces-killed-near-syria-s-idlib-1.8561003

[Jeff Buchanan]

The situation in Norther Syria/Southern Turkey is incredibly complex. There are three major combatants - the Syrians, the Russians and the Turks. These three all have common intersecting interests while at the same time certain interests dramatically diverge. Iran and the Kurds are involved peripherally but are pretty important in all of this. Iranian influence through Hezbollah and other proxies has waned as the Iranian government's war-chest is pretty much empty due to sanctions.

In an over-simplification the Turks have opposed Assad since 2011 but only through statements and no direct action. Very early on Turkey (and the US) supported anti-Assad elements within the Syrian Army. That has changed over time with the elimination of disloyal Syrian Army elements by the Assad regime. Periodic military escalation by Turkey has occured over time and this is the latest. Turkey also considers the Kurds terrorists even though they have common interests vis-a-vis Assad and have acted directly and militarily against them.

It's a political cluster-fuck combined with a humanitarian crisis involving Syrian refugees that exceeds that experienced in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Bosnian War of the early 90s. The US was heavily involved there and it's interesting that the Trump administration has seemingly sidestepped involvement in this shit-storm if not in a highly controversial manner.

Erdogan enjoys strong political support among Turkish citizens for his stand on Syria, the Kurds as terrorists (even though they do represent legitimate political opposition to Erdogan) and Turkish military operations. Erdogan continues to paint these as efforts to stabilize Turkey's Southern boarder, Northern Syria and repatriate the millions of Syrian refugees now in Turkey.

I'd put my money on Erdogan and the Turkish military - a highly competent organization - to obtain their stated objectives. Politically, opposition parties in Turkey have recently called for dialogue with Assad but they are not powerful enough to alter the trajectory of Turkish policy - that policy it appears is to create a weakened Assad regime that will give in to - if not publicly then behind the scenes - Turkish demands. How the Russians play this move by Erdogan is pretty much unknown. I don't think Trump is on the sidelines here even though it appears the US is.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well some things worth noting in the Roger Stone hearing

-- The lawyer for DOJ (Crabb, who was replacing the 4 who quit) said the Department was still standing by the recommendations in the ORIGINAL sentencing memo. But would not specify what sentence DOJ now recommended. But he said the prosecution was and is righteous and that a substantial period of incarceration was justified. Interesting.

-- Judge Jackson asked him point blank if he wrote the SECOND memo (Crabb's signature is on it). He declined to disclose who wrote it.

-- Judge Jackson said even without the second memo she would have reduced the sentence. Noted the "unprecedented actions" by DOJ over the past week

-- Finally, in her comments the Judge eviscerated Roger Stone's defense and really, Trump's whining petulance. Stone & Trump claim this is a political prosecution. Jackson noted that it was Devin Nunes who ran the Committee that Stone lied to. It was Devin Nunes who gave Stone's testimony to the DOJ. And it was Jeff Sessions' DOJ who chose to prosecute. Not a bunch of Democrats. "He was not prosecuted for standing up for the President; he was prosecuted for covering up for the President"..."Witnesses do not get to decide for themselves whether Congress is entitled to the facts"..."There was nothing unfair, phony, or disgraceful about this prosecution"

-- Stone's sentence (40 months), which could very well get erased by a pardon as soon as today (LOL), was slightly more than Michael Cohen got.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jeff- Russia is now claiming responsibility for the airstrikes that killed two Turkish soldiers.

https://www.dw.com/en/dozens-reported-dead-in-syria-as-turkey-backed-forces-launch-assault-in-idlib/a-52447872

[iam416]

Judge Jackson said even without the second memo she would have reduced the sentence

Stone's sentence (40 months),

Seems far more in line with what he did than the 7-9 years nonsense. Too bad PDJT made it so hard for Barr to do his job.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Lot of people talking about three Quinnipiac polls that came out today: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Every Dem beating Trump in PA ranging from +3 to +8 (Biden)

Every Dem beating Trump in Michigan but more narrowly ranging from +1 to +5 (Sanders)

But Trump killing the field in Wisconsin from +7 to +11

Something seems a bit off when you tell me there's a 15 point swing away from Biden (towards Trump) going from PA to Wisconsin. It's the only one of the three states that sampled more Republicans AND more Independents than Democrats. I don't know the party IDs there well enough to say if that's an accurate picture.

[Dr. Strangelove]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mulvaney-says-us-is-desperate-for-more-legal-immigrants/2020/02/20/946292b2-5401-11ea-87b2-101dc5477dd7_story.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

If the Stone pardon happens, it just adds to the list of brazen, self-serving acts carried out by Trump. I go hot and cold on the tipping point thing. If I'm representative of a conservative voter who's on the fence on voting for Trump v. an unappealing D alternative, including the unlikely nomination of a compromise Bloomberg at the DNC, there has to be a lot of us out there.

I don't see this cohort in any of the polling data but man, November is coming up quickly and I'm dreading it. I think what it comes down to is insuring I do my part to keep the Senate solidly in the hands of the Rs regardless of who gets elected president. Feel pretty confident that the House will maintain a D Majority. They might work to act on a Sanders agenda but the Senate won't let it get crazy.