Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

US has called on all citizens in Iraq to leave immediately

Iraq's Parliament supposedly going to hold an emergency meeting. There's a decent chance they could order all US troops out of the country

Remember that Muqtada al-Sadr guy from the Bush era? He's talking about getting the band back together

[Dr. Strangelove]

That State Dept warning has some ominous language in it...leave Iraq now by plane "while possible", then by land as a last alternative...

Says do not come to the Embassy

[iam416]

How many troops do we even have left there? For some reason I thought we were drawing down to almost nothing. Or am I just confusing reality with D presidential candidate hopes and dreams?

[Dr. Strangelove]

At the start of 2019 it was about 5,000 troops. That has crept up somewhat after tensions started rising and it's where Trump was attempting to move all the Syria-based forces (until moving them back to 'secure the oil"). But it's still apparently under 6,000.

[Jeff Buchanan]

US has called on all citizens in Iraq to leave immediately

Iraq's Parliament supposedly going to hold an emergency meeting. There's a decent chance they could order all US troops out of the country

Remember that Muqtada al-Sadr guy from the Bush era? He's talking about getting the band back together

TBH, the US has served to prop-up whatever thug, some of them Saddam's buddies, has risen to power in Iraq in the aftermath of one of America's most disastrous policies in the ME: seeking regime change in Iraq when Saddam Hussein was in power. The Iraqi Parliament is presently full of haters of the American presence in their country and this is based on the influence of Sunni anchored Islamic extremism. Underlying that is boiling hot tribalism between Sunni and Shia factions, with support of the Shia and it's armed militias coming from Iran.

American soldiers are sitting ducks. One has to ask, for what purpose is the US presence in Iraq warranted. To deter the rising influence of Iran there? Maybe but at what cost? I'm sure these calculations are being made in Washington as we speak.

My take is that Iran has it's own set of internal problems to deal with - namely the faltering confidence of it's citizens in the present Islamic regime to deliver on it's promises of prosperity based on socialist principals. The Mullahs have remained in power by brutalizing citizens who criticize the regime. That can only go so far. Iran's less extreme and less anti-American neighbors are wary of Iran's policies and regional objectives. There is concern about the emerging nexus between Syria, Iran and Russia. Then there is Israel and SA. Both capable of undertaking all kinds of responses to any kind of Iranian adventurism or overt intervention by Russia.

Lastly there is the expansion of Russian and Chinese influence in the region, you could now add Turkey to the list of sovereigns that have their fingers in the mess that is ME politics. With the strategic interests of the west pivoting out of the ME as oil dependence wanes and it's traditional role of protecting access to that ME oil reduces, there is major change afoot.

How the current event ends is anybody's guess but you can bet that behind the scenes around the world, agents who fundamentally support US efforts to destabilize the current Iranian regime are pressing for the Mullahs to think twice before igniting a major conflagration among interested parties. There are plenty of ways short of full military options to fuck with Iran so that it implodes on itself. That that shit-hole has been America's number 1 enemy in the ME since the 70's makes it all the more palatable that the US just keep working those fucks rather than embracing their asses like BO did.

[iam416]

It's quite the quandry for Iran. They can't really do much to the US. Whatever they do, they US can do, umm, more in retaliation. And I wonder if those in Iran are sitting there wondering, "fuck, dude, that crazy ass unhinged bastard might just not give a flying fuck."

The only way escalation ends well for Iran is if the US opts to back down. If the US doesn't then it could end very, very, very badly for Iran.

I guess we wait and see if this dude is the 21st C Franz Ferdinand.

[iam416]

BTW, the motherfucking Ds who were talking about how impotent the US was in the ME when the embassy shit went down and are now hand-wringing pussies -- FUCK THEM. ALL OF THEM. FUCK THEM. Look, we all know that the former is posturing -- we know that they're a bunch of fucking appeasement pussies. Their true colors are hiding in the basement right now hoping Iran doesn't obliterate the US.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Uncle Sam Wants YOU!

[Dr. Strangelove]

The most obvious retaliation I can see is possibly a cyber attack on us in the States. Maybe an attack on the electrical grid? An attempt at it anyways. I doubt it would just be to knock Amazon offline for a few hours.

Other than that my first thought is with whoever's guarding the Embassy. Then troops around the region. If Iran can slip in an attack on Saudi Arabia's biggest oil refinery then we should be concerned with how secure our guys in Kuwait might be.

I can't say I'm comfortable with both sides playing a game where the only way they feel they can 'win' is to convince the other side they are crazy and irrational.

[iam416]

Neither would I. I wouldn't classify this as an optimal situation, DSL. To be clear, I'm sure there were Ds who, when the embassy was attacked, said "we should just get out." Good one them. They can bemoan this shit all day as far as I'm concerned.

Setting aside the US politics, in my uneducated opinion, the most likely retaliation is regional. Like 99% likely. I do think that whatever Iran does it has to do with Russia's blessing. I don't think they can wander into escalation with no backup.

[Ghengis Jon]

Iran will probably just use proxies. Call for lone wolf attacks in Europe and the US. Have proxies attack western interests in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Watch for a biological attack. When you have nothing to lose, you have nothing to lose.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Iran will be supported behind the scenes by both Russia and China. I would say that Iran is a long-term geopolitical rival for Russia, though, so their support might not be extremely proactive. I really, really don't think either country would get in a shooting war with the US for Iran's sake but they will do everything they can to make things more difficult.

Turkey has become a wild card. They could makes our lives miserable as well and Erdogan increasingly knows it.

[iam416]

When you have nothing to lose, you have nothing to lose.

They have a lot to lose. Right now, it's just pride. If it escalates it could turn very bad for them.

I really, really don't think either country would get in a shooting war with the US for Iran's sake but they will do everything they can to make things more difficult.

Correct. Well, in my uneducated opinion. So, I think Iran is a little constrained. Or a lot constrained.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think they're constrained to the extent that they can't use biologicial weapons like Jon just said. Or a dirty nuke. Nothing beyond the pale or that embarrasses their more-powerful sponsors. But fly a drone packed with explosives into a US barracks? Russia and China will get a chuckle out of that

[AlabamAlum]

We have looked for a reason to carpet bomb Iran since the hostage situation that Carter dealt with. Maybe even since the Shah was deposed.

They need to re-watch footage of us taking Baghdad in Desert Storm. Because that could be Tehran. And hell, with the protesters already there, we may have help from a decent number of Iranians.