Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Arizona probably needs included.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The Trump state most likely to flip is Michigan. After that PA. After that it's a toss-up between Arizona and Wisconsin. Probably Florida after that. Then North Carolina. Then the longshots of Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas.

The only Hillary states Trump has some shot at winning are New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota. There's chest-thumping about New Mexico/Oregon but he's a dumbass if he gets talked into spending any significant time there. The old Harry Reid Nevada Dem machine has been very successful turning out the vote in recent years and that was one of the only places in 2018 where an incumbent Republican Senator lost reelection.

[lineygoblue]

The Trump state most likely to flip is Michigan.

This is probably true. Michigan voters stupidly elected Democrat Gretchen Grandholm-Whitmer, who promptly demanded a 170% gas tax increase to "fix the damn roads", which was her campaign slogan. Of course, she never talked about how she planned to FUND the fixing of those dam roads until after she was elected. Voters lapped it up because it was a catchy phrase, and she has a somewhat cute face.

Michigan has flip-flopped a lot in presidential elections. Trump, Carter, Reagan and Clinton have all carried Michigan at one time or another. Even George Wallace and Jesse Jackson won Democratic primaries here.

[Hannibal]

The Trump state most likely to flip is Michigan. After that PA. After that it's a toss-up between Arizona and Wisconsin. Probably Florida after that. Then North Carolina. Then the longshots of Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas.

The only Hillary states Trump has some shot at winning are New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota. There's chest-thumping about New Mexico/Oregon but he's a dumbass if he gets talked into spending any significant time there. The old Harry Reid Nevada Dem machine has been very successful turning out the vote in recent years and that was one of the only places in 2018 where an incumbent Republican Senator lost reelection.

New Mexico seems doable to me but he doesn't need it.

[WingsFan]

This is probably true. Michigan voters stupidly elected Democrat Gretchen Grandholm-Whitmer, who promptly demanded a 170% gas tax increase to "fix the damn roads", which was her campaign slogan. Of course, she never talked about how she planned to FUND the fixing of those dam roads until after she was elected. Voters lapped it up because it was a catchy phrase, and she has a somewhat cute face.

She promised the roads would get fixed and she hasn't done shit but want to raise gas prices and hand out food stamps. She wants Michigan to be flooded with immigrates and want sanctuary city's in Michigan. But what about over 18,000 people who are victims of traumatic auto accidents, paralyzed, some from the neck down with terrible TBI's? Fuck them! She says.

She signed a new auto no-fault insurance reform bill on Mackinac Island. In the wee hours of the night , hiding from any serious public debate, rushed through a vote on a holiday weekend, so it want be reported.

John Cornack

[froot loops]

When I talk about Wisconsin, there is an assumption in that argument that Biden flips Pennsylvania and Michigan. He needs those and I expect they will flood the airwaves in Michigan. 2016 was basically a no-fly zone for political ads in Michigan on the airwaves for some incompetent reasons.

[iam416]

[froot loops]

The incompetence does explain Michigan and Wisconsin, it doesn't with Pennsylvania. In 2020, even a competent campaign is going.to have trouble. His electoral college advantage is expanding. A durable 43 percent voting population that has that much enthusiasm is hard to beat. He thrills them in way no politician can match.

[iam416]

[froot loops]

They spent a lot of time and money in PA, but the one criticism they got was they really only visited the Philly area to try and run up the totals there. The argument was if Clinton visited the whole state maybe the margins stay down in the rural areas. I.don't think that would do much, Trump's demeanor is an aphrodisiac to those areas.

[Whitley]

She promised the roads would get fixed and she hasn't done shit but want to raise gas prices and hand out food stamps. She wants Michigan to be flooded with immigrates and want sanctuary city's in Michigan. But what about over 18,000 people who are victims of traumatic auto accidents, paralyzed, some from the neck down with terrible TBI's? Fuck them! She says.

She signed a new auto no-fault insurance reform bill on Mackinac Island. In the wee hours of the night , hiding from any serious public debate, rushed through a vote on a holiday weekend, so it want be reported.

John Cornack

Yep I didn't vote for Whitmer in the primary.

The Free Press during the primaries had a question they asked all the people running for governor. They wanted an outside the box idea. Whitmer's response was basically fix the damn roads that was not out of the box. El Sayed had a very interesting one dealing with bringing high speed internet/broadband to rural areas of Michigan. I wasn't sure that it would work but I liked the idea of it (I remember some vague details of it). And truthfully if you didn't have the businessman (blanking on his name) I think El Sayed very well might have won the primary.

being fair though---a lot of the problems Michigan has you can put on the legislature. Whitmer did give the legislature a plan to fix the roads and they basically said ....nope and went on summer recess. Then pushed a budget through right at the last minute and then was shocked when she was pissed about it. The only way they want to do business with her is if she gives them everything they want every time.

[Whitley]

The incompetence does explain Michigan and Wisconsin, it doesn't with Pennsylvania. In 2020, even a competent campaign is going.to have trouble. His electoral college advantage is expanding. A durable 43 percent voting population that has that much enthusiasm is hard to beat. He thrills them in way no politician can match.

Which is why the Dems need to stop trying to win over Trump voters and work on 1) nominating a candidate that that can excite the base and 2) bring in new voters.

[lineygoblue]

Where are these new voters you're talking about? Guatemala?

In that case, I guess I understand.

There has always and forever been a moderate swing vote in this country. They aren't in either extreme. In my lifetime, they've voted for Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton and Obama.

Just enough of the moderate vote left Hillary to swing the vote to Trump in 2016.

I think its still too early to predict what's going to happen in 2020, but if the Dems don't find a way to grab that moderate swing vote, Trump will win again. And a socialist candidate isn't going to swing that vote enough to win.

[iam416]

There's a pretty good study that shows that the more a candidate goes hard to far end of the base the more that candidate increases turnout for the OTHER side. Apathetic voters are fine sitting at home if the candidates are playing between the left and right quartile of sanity. But, when you cross that line in either direction you're more likely to create alarm in the disinterested and get them to vote for you. Meanwhile, you've already secured your votes, so past a certain a point, moving toward the pole is a definite net loss.

In 2020, PDJT's disposition and general malevolence is the item that's way fucking past the quartile line. His policies and outcomes are not. Whatever D gets elected, they're going to have the character advantage by roughly an OSU-Rutgers type margin. If they keep their policies in the realm of the sane then they win. And, I think they win comfortably -- sweep the 3 B10 states, flip Arizona, maybe win in Florida.

[Hannibal]

The best review/discussion that I have seen of The Rise of Skywalker so far....

I think that this guy gives way too much blame to Rian Johnson and not nearly enough to Jar Jar Abrams, but the vids are still really good.

Side note: Rian Johnson's latest movie, Knives Out, is really good. The guy can apparently make good movies with good writing.