Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

North Carolina completely vindicates Roberts opinion declining to wade into gerrymandering. Another win for the Court.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Talent is referring to this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/north-carolina-judges-toss-maps-slam-gerrymandering-stinging-ruling-n1049411

http://www.commoncause.org/north-carolina/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2019/09/Common-Cause-v.-Lewis-trial-court-decision-9.3.19.pdf

A three judge panel ruled unanimously that North Carolina's legislative districts violated the STATE Constitution. Unclear if this impacts Congressional districts but Republicans control 9 (possibly 10) seats out of 13 in Congress despite the state being pretty close to 50/50.

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Boris Johnson (File Photo) calls for Snap Election after losing his first vote as a PM and having an MP defect in the middle of a speech he was giving. Those wonderful historians over in the UK say Boris is the first PM to humiliatingly lose their first vote since Pitt the Younger in 1793.

Johnson is apparently throwing all 21 Conservative MP's who revolted against him out of the Party, including Winston Churchill's grandson.


harry-dunne-film-characters-photo-u2?w=280&h=280&fit=crop&crop=faces&q=50&fm=pjpg.jpg

[froot loops]

He can call for a snap election all day long but he's unlikely to get unless he gives up some major concessions. His ridiculous bluster was meant to hide the fact that he didn't have the votes for what he wanted to do. He has a weak hand, the math has not changed and since his foolish plan was put into action it's gotten worse.

[Jeff Buchanan]

There's a creative algorithm at the end of this BBC article that explains today's vote in British Parliament to take control of the government. That Boris is screwed isn't the slam dunk that its being portrayed it is here.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49573608

[iam416]

A no-deal Brexit is massively better for the UK than the impending Reign of Corbyn. The latter will be the ruin of the country.

[Dr. Strangelove]

EDmVvy0X4AYeSWm.jpg

[Dr. Strangelove]

Have argued before that trade deficits are not necessarily "bad", but if you think they are, then Trump is failing to rein them in.

https://www.axios.com/trump-trade-deficit-world-china-6c0e421a-872d-4232-951c-511e0c785f68.html

[froot loops]

Corbyn would only be PM in the aftermath of a no deal Brexit. DSL brought up Pitt the Younger, the situation is very similar in that Johnson might have to soldier on as a minority government. But in Pitt's case he eventually gained support and was able to call an election after a good deal of time. That's where the comparison breaks down.

[Whitley]

He can call for a snap election all day long but he's unlikely to get unless he gives up some major concessions. His ridiculous bluster was meant to hide the fact that he didn't have the votes for what he wanted to do. He has a weak hand, the math has not changed and since his foolish plan was put into action it's gotten worse.

No wonder President Deals likes Boris so much. He probably wants to invite them hunting for Moose and Squirrel.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Bill Flores is the 15h Republican Congressman, and the 5th from Texas alone, to announce he's retiring in 2020 (only 3 Dems have announced the same, by comparison).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/rep-bill-flores-becomes-15th-house-republican-to-announce-plans-to-exit-chamber/2019/09/04/5c5da128-cf17-11e9-b29b-a528dc82154a_story.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Felony arrest warrant issued for Jacob Wohl, the idiot Alt Righter and "provocateur" who's made pathetically inept attempts to frame Robert Mueller and Pete Buttigieg. Sounds like he's back to committing financial fraud in the securities/derivatives markets.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jacob-wohl-wanted-on-felony-arrest-warrant

[Dr. Strangelove]

Johnson officially pushes for a snap Election after the Commons votes to block No-Deal Brexit by a 329 to 300 vote.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49584907

[froot loops]

To be clear, Dorain's 185mph sustained winds w/gust to 200 are those that are found in the NE (or 1 o'clock position w/noon on the direction of travel which is, currently,almost due west). The eyewall is small and tightly compacted for this storm. WInd speeds drop rapidly moving out from the eyewall. By the time you are 30 miles out from that NE portion of the eyewall, the winds have dropped to tropical storm levels (<79mph).Of course the imagery you see of the storm makes it appear quite large. These are clouds and rain bands. The reported CAT 5 winds occur just at that NE corner of this small eye.

Freeport - on Grand Bahama Island - may be far enough out of the 30 mile diameter of the eye to not experience the catastrophic winds that Marsh Harbor is experiencing (the Eye passed right over it about an hour ago. That area WILL be flattened and after it passes, you'll get all the horrible pictures.) Just keep in mind, Nassau, way south of Freeport isn't going to get winds much above 30 mph. Freeport will probably see 85 mph - not roof blowing off winds. Storm surge and 7+ inches of rain will affect Freeport so flooding is a problem. and probably the biggest one.

If the latest (5pm) NHC Operational Track holds, after clearing Grand Bahama Island (Freeport) the storm will head West right toward West Palm Beach (2h drive north of Miami) but will slowly turn northward to remain about 60 miles off shore of the E coast of FL. A 20 mile change E or W of the current operational track can change things dramatically with respect to wind, rain and flooding especially looking out beyond 2-3 days.

Beyond that NNW turn, which still remains uncertain (a 70% probability of a N turn though), what happens with the track going beyond Wednesday morning gets less certain. That is because the steering currents are weak and the pressure ridge moving into the SE US and currently projected to edge the storm northward and off the E coast of FL is not a slam dunk to happen. Another HI in the Western Atlantic - a weather feature that could drive the storm Eastward - is also showing signs of weakness. If it strengthens, Dorian may not turn N and will curve into the NE coast of FL, N of Vero Beach but South of Jacksonville. The uncertainty produces the cones you see below (latest 5pm NHC run):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...e_and_wind.png

The map below depicts the most recent runs of the various models available to the NHC that form the basis of the chart above:

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...orm_05_ens.gif

This is not a forecast. It is a compilation of data and maps from multiple sites I follow on the web. What is interesting is that official forecasting gets political and you can imagine why. Nobody wants to be wrong either way. That's local news and weather forecasters AND forecasts from official government entities like NHS, NOAA and NWS. These agencies build their forecasts from computer based weather models. Forecasters tend to err on the side of caution. This leads to local news hype. It's probably the right thing to do for public consumption. Local authorities though will get stuff like I'm providing here. The purpose is for emergency planning and appropriate use of resources.