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  • I don't think we should take much from the market's decline in response to the addition of this 10% in additional tariffs that Trump tweeted about. The thinking of market watchers is this signals that trade negotiations aren't going as well as some may have thought. IMO, this is a negotiating tactic on Trump's part and it consistent with the strategy of placing increasing pressure on China.

    TBH, the more I read about the nuts and bolts of what is underlying the trade dispute and what the interests of the two countries involved are, the clearer and more informed picture I get of the whole thing. There are legitimate issues and attendant complaints regarding trade on both sides. Those are the misunderstood and poorly explained items in all of this. What we get is sound bites that, depending on where we stand on the US-China trade dispute, either resonate or don't with us. When opponents of the Trump administration's China trade policy here that it is in "disarray" or that US negotiators are "fools," of course that resonates with them and like clock-work, they knowingly nod their heads in agreement with that take. The reverse is also true.

    Although I put stock in how markets react to ongoing events in the world, in this case, I think it is a poor refection of what is going on with US-China trade because of what I just mentioned above. Market watchers who influence investors are susceptible to the same kind of uninformed logic driving their sell or buy advice as the rest of us. For example, we really don't know which part of the Chinese economy the Trump tweet indicated would be affected by this 10% tariff. If the tariffs are on apparel exported from China and consumed in the US market, they are meaningless and will have no impact whatsoever on China because apparel exports are but a fraction of the dollar value of all exports. OTH, if those tariffs are on auto parts, steel or electronics or any of the sectors of the Chinese economy that hold a larger share of the value of the overall exports, they would be painful.

    My guess is that the Trump administration is applying this additional 10% tariff on goods that will have a minimal affect on China. They are widow dressing. The Chinese know it and if they choose to, they can impose tariffs on US exports to China that will also have a minimal effect. A tit-for-tat in kind sort of meaningless and mostly symbolic shots across the bow.

    Still, despite that likely scenario, the markets reverse from 200 points up to 200 points down. A 400 point swing that is based on nothing factual but rather completely sentimental. I recognize that there are critics of the Trump administration's China trade policy and some of those criticisms are valid. But discussions about the propriety of any approach has to be an informed one and for the most part what we are fed that shapes our opinions should be looked at with a jaundiced eye.

    Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.

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    • Irrational reaction vs irrational exuberance?
      “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

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      • I agree with most of the goals in forcing China to be a more fair trading partner and in particular crack down on their technology theft.

        But I've also said over and over again that Trump should not take on China alone and attempt to wage trade wars with every other country on earth at the same time. We have no coalition and aren't using as much leverage as we're capable of. Just a small example: China used to import more lobster from Maine than anywhere else in the world. Now they get it from Canada. Instead of Trump getting Canada and others on board with a plan, he went it alone, and pissed the Canucks off to boot. China is finding adequate replacements to supply imported products they used to buy from us (that includes soybeans too -- Brazil and South America filled the hole left behind by us). They'll have a tougher time replacing the United States as a market for their own exports. We can always hurt them more than they can us, but I'll keep contending that they also have a much higher tolerance for pain than we do.

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        • Oh and North Korea tested missiles again. For the 3rd time in a week.

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          • I've been working on my "how do big counties vote" spreadsheet to add the 2018 census estimates and revise a bit. These numbers don't include Washington DC.

            Among the (Current) 50 Most Populous Counties in America
            - Only 5 voted for Trump.
            - These were: Maricopa County, AZ (Trump +3), Tarrant County, TX (Trump +9), Suffolk County, NY (Trump +7), Collin County, TX (Trump +27), Pinellas County, FL (Trump +1)
            - For folks who don't know offhand, these are basically Phoenix, Fort Worth, Eastern Long Island, Dallas suburbs, and St. Petersburg
            - Among the exact same 50 counties, Gerald Ford (in 1976) won exactly 25 of them.

            Among the (Current) 100 Most Populous Counties in America
            - 13 voted for Trump
            - Add in places like Jacksonville, Bakersfield, CA, Macomb County, Denton, TX, Colorado Springs, and Fort Myers
            - Among the exact same 100 counties, Gerald Ford (in 1976) won 48 of them

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            • Biggest retirement thus far...only black Republican in the House, Will Hurd, is quitting.

              This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and Hurd won three elections in nail-biter fashion. He was also one of the few remaining members occasionally willing to criticize Trump.

              EDIT: Hurd is also the 3rd Texas Republican to announce they're quitting in barely more than a week. At least two of the seats have a good chance of flipping.

              https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elec...eelection-2020
              Last edited by Dr. Strangelove; August 1, 2019, 07:38 PM.

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              • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                Snopes fact-checking is now like this:

                Did Bernie Sanders say Baltimore was like a Third World country? Yes. [Insert long-winded explanation as to why it was ok for him to say replete with opining.]

                DId Obama use the Betsy Ross flag at his inauguration? Well, yes [but, -- insert "times have changed!" opining]

                Fact-checking seems like it ought to be free of opinion, but it's obviously not. Snopes is part of the media industrial complex working so hard to get us all to embrace Communism.
                Wikipedia is fully pozzed too at this point.

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                • Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
                  Biggest retirement thus far...only black Republican in the House, Will Hurd, is quitting.

                  This is one of the most competitive districts in the country and Hurd won three elections in nail-biter fashion. He was also one of the few remaining members occasionally willing to criticize Trump.

                  EDIT: Hurd is also the 3rd Texas Republican to announce they're quitting in barely more than a week. At least two of the seats have a good chance of flipping.

                  https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elec...eelection-2020
                  Texas finally going blue will be the event that wakes up Republicans (and people like Talent) up from their political correctness-induced slumber. By then it will be too late. The fact that Trump is a heavy underdog against a field of extremists one-upping each other on far Left kookiness should be a wakeup call by itself. In any sane country, a party whose platform included promising hundreds of billions of welfare bucks to citizens of foreign countries who come here illegally would be a fringe minority group polling at 1%.
                  Last edited by Hannibal; August 1, 2019, 07:59 PM.

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                    • Something I saw earlier today. Note the dates on this.

                      EA5WKfqWkAED3wn.png

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                      • The pause in the US-China trade war wasnt a refreshing one, and now it appears over. President Trump tweets that hes placing a 10% tariff on $300 billion of additional Chinese goods. And this one will really hit American consumers.

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                        • And in another blow to global trade, the US has been unable to stop a trade feud between Japan and South Korea, our two biggest allies in East Asia. Between this and China tariffs the Nikkei is shitting the bed right now

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                          • The US quits the INF treaty. A new game of chess with Russia begins.




                            “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

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                            • Originally posted by Ghengis Jon View Post
                              Has as much if not more to do with China

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                              • How so? If we plan on stocking Taiwan with ballistic missiles, perhaps. I think China would full scale invade before letting that happen. Exiting the INF treaty will not change the number or type of Russian missiles deployed toward China. What am I not seeing?
                                “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

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