Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Kapture1]

He rweeted something similar about John Lewis and his congressional district. If Wakanda had a Congressman he would tweet something similar. It isn't about prosperity or cleanliness, but everyone knows this by now.

the vast majority of hallucination is the addition of a hallucination, not the removal or subtraction.

if two people in a room, one says he sees an elephant. swears it's there clear as day. the other swears he sees nothing. the only who is likely hallucinating is the one seeing the elephant

same thing here, likely the one hallucinating is the one that is saying trump was racist in that tweet, adding something that just isn't there.

[froot loops]

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

[froot loops]

Wild horses couldn't get the MAGAs to read JK Rowling now

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Kapture1]

CNN is infested with dumbasses

[Kapture1]

i4M7PA6.jpg

[iam416]

[AlabamAlum]

I have been through and near West Ballmore many times. It IS a shithole filled with projects and urban decay. The problem is it has been a shit hole for a long time. And will continue to be so. Blaming Cummings for that is off target. We could create the perfect pol and make that his district and I don't think much will change - at least for several decades. The income and industry flew from that area 70 years ago. Until it comes back, you have poor people born into slums, despair, and hopelessness and the kind of depressive nihilism seen in every city's poor areas. Trump used this as sass toward Cummings. That was his purpose. But telling poor people they are poor and live in a shithole, while it may be true, is a pretty awful thing to do. It's like passing a homeless person and going "haha! You sleep in a alley!" It's the Trump way, though.

Moving on...

Trying to play "gotcha!" in proving that Trump watches TV even though he said he doesn't watch it much is kinda pathetic. I mean if you look up 'weaksauce' in the OED, they probably use screen captures of Peter Baker's tweets on this as an example.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Talent brought up the Marist poll earlier this week so here's some additional numbers from it. Talent thought it noteworthy that his approval was at 44%, a record high for Trump in that poll. I'm gonna zero in on college-educated whites, who represent by far the biggest chunk of swing voters in those suburban districts that turned wildly against the Republicans in 2018.

* Trump's approval among college-educated whites is 38%. His approval among whites overall is 48% (See page 3)
* 60% of college-educated whites say they "definitely" plan to vote against Trump. I'd also point out here that college-educated whites are more strongly ANTI Trump than whites w/o college are FOR him. (See page 7)
* 35% of college-educated whites approve of Trump's handling of foreign policy (Page 11)
* A full 67% of college-educated whites say the economy is going well for them right now (page 13). BUT only 47% of college-educated whites approve of Trump's handling of the economy (Page 9). That's actually a pattern across all demographics. And it's a problem for Trump because, one, the economy is his most positive achievement that he can claim. But, two, it suggests that a large number of people believe the economy is doing well more IN SPITE OF Trump than BECAUSE of Trump. Trump needs people to believe that economic health depends upon him and him alone.

And I should say, I think this is more a problem for Trump and less so for Republicans at large. I can see a lot of suburbanites being very comfortable voting for Biden but voting for an R congressman as "balance".

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1907190926.pdf

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yes, voting for Bernie or Warren is probably going to seems a riskier proposition for your 401k than voting Biden (although I imagine Sanders will seem more so than Warren to a lot of people).

If Biden can eke out a win in Iowa and NH, he will probably roll over the competition in South Carolina and be hard to stop at that point. Most of the states that vote Super Tuesday (March 3) are more likely to go for a Moderate Dem than Sanders/Warren. Honestly, the longer those two both stay in the race, the better things probably are for Biden.

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Just looked up old Iowa Caucus results and I was a little surprised. I've always had the impression that Iowa was an unreliable predictor of who wins the ultimate nomination, but that seems to really only apply to the Republican side.

HIllary, Obama, Kerry, and Al Gore all won Iowa. Last Dems who didn't were Clinton in 1992 and Dukakis in 1988.

But on the Republican side the last three winners of the Iowa caucus have been: Mike Huckabee (2008), Rick Santorum (2012), and Ted Cruz (2016)

You can kind of flip that around when looking at New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders won there in 2016 (by a LOT too). Hillary won it in 2008.

Meanwhile the last two times the NH winner didn't win the Republican nomination were McCain in 2000 and...Pat fucking Buchanan in 1996.