Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

This survey is really sort of amazing and reflects just what a dud the tax cut has turned out to be for Republicans

Amazingly, only 17% of Americans believe they even GOT a tax cut.

And while economy confidence remains high, and 2/3 say the economy is in good shape, less than half approve of Trump's handling of it.

Only 15% said tariffs will help them personally. Only 26% overall say tariffs help the economy in general, down from 40% this time last year.

https://apnews.com/a5523454096a4c2b9e8406251ee8c2a2

[Dr. Strangelove]

Take it with a grain of salt.

Prediction model which said Dems would gain 42 seats in the House (they actually gained 40) now says Trump only has 197 "safe" electoral votes. Also believes the Dem is likely to win at least 278 (essentially MI, PA, and Wi revert back to historical trends) which would be enough to win. Supposedly the four true toss-up states are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

[Dr. Strangelove]

NRA TV has shut down and has placed everyone on "unpaid leave". This Free Beacon reporter got a hold of the NDA and "leave agreement" they are requiring employees to sign if they don't want to lose health insurance.

Is this...even legal? Indefinite unpaid leave? So if you sign the NDA and stay, you can't collect unemployment because you're still an 'employee", even if you're not getting paid and performing no work. If you say "fuck this" and leave, you also can't collect unemployment because you left voluntarily.

As best I can find the longest you can furlough someone like this is a week.

[iam416]

Progressive/D leader AOC says illegals are being forced to drink out of toilets at concentration camps.

She is the voice of the party.

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Progressive/D leader AOC says illegals are being forced to drink out of toilets at concentration camps.

She is the voice of the party.

Numerous Representatives repeated the same story. I doubt they witnessed this but probably had a detainee tell them it. The speculation is that the fixtures are a toilet/drinking fountain combo like below which are apparently common in detention facilities of all kinds.. So possibly a translation problem or intentional distortion. Who knows.

Whether that story's true or not, the DHS Inspector General did inspections around El Paso back in May and found dangerous overcrowding and unsanitary conditions. 155 men stuffed in a cell intended for 35. 41 stuffed in another cell meant for 8. Guards so worried about riots that they stayed armed at all times. Agents requesting transfers skyrocketing. So I'm sure the conditions are fairly hellish in some places. If we want to place the overwhelming blame on the Democrats for that, because they haven't let Trump build more facilities, fine.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/imm...eared-n1025136



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[Jeff Buchanan]

There's plenty of smoke out there that the markets don't feel too good about the US economy in the next 12 months. So, what does this mean to PDJT? It means that an economic downturn in early 2020 and lasting for more than 6 months is going to fuck him royally. His theatrics are not likely to produce lasting results and observer's patience, including mine, is wearing thin now that it is becoming apparent to most people that the reality TV he likes to be involved in isn't reality at all.

Even though the market traded today at new highs, that didn't last as the reality of an inverted yield curve and other leading economic indicators weighed on investor sentiment by mid-day. As well, experts that I read today, don't think much is going to come of further negotiations with China. The tablets have been written in stone for all intent and purpose.

If something substantial doesn't come out of renewed negotiations with China, despite Trump's attempts to spin it positively regardless, his numbers are going to take a dive. The press, already loaded with criticisms will applaud the numbers and contribute as they have in bringing him down. He will certainly complain about the Fed and it's need to lower interest rates. He's already complained that they should have done that last month but didn't and he might be right.

While I have supported the administration's approach to trade in general and to China in particular, that is, its fundamental objectives and playing hardball to obtain them, it tends to be two steps forward followed by something stupid that Trump says that causes the process to take three steps back. It's frustrating. There is nothing to be gained by shouting we are winning the trade war with China - something he has done in the last two days. There is a lot to lose. I wrote up thread about the damaging impact on negotiations that occur when the Chinese get a whiff of being humiliated publicly.

If it turns out that Trump's character and behavior end up sabotaging efforts to level the trade playing field with China (i.e., the person himself has rendered the executive ineffective), I'll start following the D candidates ..... and that is about the most distasteful outcome I can possibly imagine leading up to November, 2020. For the moment, as before, I'll continue to support the executive but, as I've said, Trump doesn't appear to understand nuance and the world of trade is nuanced unlike the world that is trying to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of NK and Iran.

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don't know if she's deliberately lying or is dumb enough to believe anything she's told. Furthermore I don't care. The actual conditions in the centers bother me whether they're drinking out of toilets or not. If that's what you consider providing cover for her, fine, I guess that's what I'm doing. Bash me all you want.

[Ghengis Jon]

The Fed should continue to watch data and tune out President Dumbass when it applies to their decisions. Free money is perceived by business as an entitlement now. Perhaps that huge corporate welfare check called the Trump Tax Cut should have been spent on things other than share buybacks and executive bonuses. The market will correct, the worst monetary offenders will take a gut punch, and then the economy will return to the regularly scheduled programming. Severity of correction is the wild card.




Talent, sometimes you're Capt Obvious. As the President of the United States is a pathological liar with only a tenuous grip on reality, he sets the example and the bar height for other politicians. Your complaints concerning other truth challenged politicians ring laughably hollow as your hero makes a consistent, unrepentant mockery of honesty.

Don't worry Jeff, the Ds will have already selected their Chosen One by the time you get around to paying attention. The two candidates I think are worth listening to (Bennett and Klocubar) aren't even on the radar and aren't likely to get there. The GOP elected a worthless piece of shit in 2016 so I guess it's the dems turn in 2020. Figure a Warren-Sanders ticket versus the anti-Christ. Bleh.

[Cody_Russell]

Take it with a grain of salt.

Prediction model which said Dems would gain 42 seats in the House (they actually gained 40) now says Trump only has 197 "safe" electoral votes. Also believes the Dem is likely to win at least 278 (essentially MI, PA, and Wi revert back to historical trends) which would be enough to win. Supposedly the four true toss-up states are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/0...tion-forecast/

[iam416]

I don't know if she's deliberately lying or is dumb enough to believe anything she's told. Furthermore I don't care. The actual conditions in the centers bother me whether they're drinking out of toilets or not. If that's what you consider providing cover for her, fine, I guess that's what I'm doing. Bash me all you want.

Oh, I understand. She's a liar, but she's speaking the broader "truth." So, who cares if she's lying. That's a standard approach these days. Trying to think of where I've seen that...

Oh...

Talent, sometimes you're Capt Obvious. As the President of the United States is a pathological liar with only a tenuous grip on reality, he sets the example and the bar height for other politicians. Your complaints concerning other truth challenged politicians ring laughably hollow as your hero makes a consistent, unrepentant mockery of honesty

...that's where I've seen it. I'm not exactly sure how he's my "hero" as I voted for HRC, but whatever.

If, DSL, you weren't shitposting stupid ass shit every fucking day about PDJT and his daily lies -- lies that are often speaking the ol' broader truth -- then I wouldn't care. Same deal with your shitposting on the Covington kids.

[iam416]

So, we have this "surge" of illegal immigrants. The vast majority are seeking asylum /'refugee status for economic reasons. And people are fleeing their shithole Central American countries because they're perpetual shitholes. Of course, if you say they're shitholes, that's racist. If you say we should turn away the illegals then " how could send them back to such an awful place[shithole]!" Anyway, it'd be nice to see the US get back to proper asylum. Political. Persecution. But, instead we grant asylum if there's a fear of being a crime victim. And everyone claims that and games the system. Granting asylum/refugee status to people that simply want out of their shithole is open borders. So I get that the Ds are all for it.

The Ds are also for, apparently, just letting these people in. I mean, they're DRINKING OUT OF TOILETS!!!! That's SO INHUMANE!!!!!! AWWWW! The longer term answer is to spends gads of money on new CONCENTRATION CAMPS. But, that's not short term. So, if these people are being treated so inhumanely, and we can't possibly force them to go back to their SHITHOLE, then the only answer is release them into the US. I'm quite certain they'll show up for their asylum hearing.

But, while you're waiting for and never showing up to the asylum hearing, the Ds want to make sure that we get to pay for your healthcare and, if you're old enough, college! (amongst other things).

That's the D plan. Not the progressive plan, not the left wing antifa plan. That's the DEMOCRAT plan. And if you disagree...RACIST!!!!

I mean, THEY'RE DRINKING OUT OF TOILETS!

[iam416]

JFC, Fareed Zakaria is roughly on the same page: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.bcb9499bc11b

These looser criteria, coupled with the reality that it is a safe way to enter the United States, have made the asylum system easy to abuse. Applications from Hondurans, Guatemalans and Salvadoransclaim is pendingbudgetary cuts

[Jeff Buchanan]

........ and to think, the Trump administrations' policies and PDJT tough language on immigration itself, may be what lifts him to reelection despite what amounts to fairly significant failures on US trade relations with China and attempts at denuclearization of Iran and NK.

Cody, what people are saying about a recession is based on hard data not unlike what kind of data has preceded a significant economic slow down in the last 50 years. The bottom line, recession or not, if the economy is perceived by voters as not being good, it is going to hurt Trump come November, 2020. Incidentally, the deep data isn't important to the average American. What's important is jobs, the value of their homes and for those that have them, the value of their investment portfolios. It does not require a recession, in fact, to damage those values.

I'm reading today that Trump may have sent a very bad message to the Iranians by symbolically stepping into NK last weekend and, it appears, re-opening negotiations with NK under terms where the US will not require Kim to give up the nukes he already has. Should the Iranians expect the same treatment?

Rogue states like NK have recognized that having nuclear weapons - even just one or two devices and/or the capability to deliver them - elevates their standing in the international community. It does that to such an extent that it is possible to essentially ignore steps designed to make it hard for those governments to survive let alone operate efficiently.

It appears to me that the world has two decades of failed experiences, at both ends of the diplomatic/military spectrum - accommodating nice guys and unaccommodating tough guys, in dealing with the spread of nuclear weapons to regimes that we would rather not have them. Nuclear disarmament attempts have, for the most part, failed despite attempts, primarily during the Reagan/Gorbachov years, to START them. The message from Trump may be the same one that came out of the 60's and 70's experience with the Soviet Union at the height of its power, some level of Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD as a deterrent to nuclear armed conflict, is a good thing and should be pursued.

Well, it is not. Deterrence is an absurd doctrine driving relationships between countries that possess nuclear weapons or are working towards getting them. The only sound doctrine for the conduct of relationships between states is one that rejects MAD as a means of deterrence and seeks verifiable nuclear disarmament. That the Trump administration may be shifting to a course of action that waters down attempts to keep NK and Iran from possessing nukes is a course that I can't support.