Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

And dissenting opinions being longer is common. Kav spilled a lot of ink in his aforementioned dissent against Gorsuch.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Anywho, the two biggies are still out there. Maybe tomorrow. People trying to read tea leaves and counting opinions say that Roberts, Alito, and Kagan are the three justices to have written the fewest for the current term (implying that any of them might be the author of the Census or Gerrymandering case). Wouldn't surprise me if Alito writes the Census decision and that turns out to be a 7-2 decision...I mean the law seems fairly clear and I think the Court will stick to its guns on "it's not our place to say what was in the Administration's heart, the law is the law".

The gerrymandering case, IMO, is going to be the closer call. Though I could be completely wrong.

[AlabamAlum]

Jerry's Mandarin would be a good name for a Chinese restaurant.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Awful

[iam416]

Correct.

[iam416]

Wouldn't surprise me if Alito writes the Census decision and that turns out to be a 7-2 decision...I mean the law seems fairly clear and I think the Court will stick to its guns on "it's not our place to say what was in the Administration's heart, the law is the law".

The gerrymandering case, IMO, is going to be the closer call. Though I could be completely wrong.

The census case is remarkably straight-forward. Should be an easy decision. Obviously, Ginsburg and the Wise Latina will vote contra, but such is life when empathy is the law.

The gerrymandering cases mirror the discussions we have had -- more than 5 feel like it's a problem, more than 5 feel like the technology age has transformed the more traditional inefficient gerrymandering into an maximally efficient gerrymandering system and it's probably 4 or 5 that feel like the Supreme Court ain't the ones who need to gin up some sort of standard to figure this all out. I hope it's 5 on the last point.

Also, there's still 8 opinions to come. Next day for opinions is Wednesday.

[iam416]

Also of note (at least to me), the Court said denying "FUCT" a trademark on the grounds of "scandalous" or "immoral" is a violation of the First Amendment. Old prudes Ginsburg and Wise Latina concurred in part and dissented in part -- they don't like the idea of "bad words" getting federally granted trademark protection. They thought it was wrong to deny if the word was "immoral" but kosher if it was "scandalous." Try threading that needle of a distinction!

[crashcourse]

STFU (R)

[THE_WIZARD_]

...here kitty kitty kitty...

78-15-2

crash:

hello

[Jeff Buchanan]

It looks like Iran's Supreme Leader has, once again, flipped the bird at the Trump administration this time saying the door for diplomacy "has been shut forever." At face, you'd think Iran will no longer comply with the provisions of JCPO with regard to the pursuit of elements of a nuclear weapon that the JCPOA restricted and allegedly Iran complied with. Moreover, they are not about to acquiesce to US pressure to renegotiate the 2015 JCPOA.

That may be the case right now. However, the sanctions now in place, the impact on Iran's oil revenues in particular, are significant and will prove to have a devastating effect on the government's ability to sustain it's already inefficient oil fields, provide the social programs it has promised as well as sustain a program to develop a nuclear weapons capability. OTH, the sanctions placed yesterday that involve freezing the assets of specific individuals within Iran's regime won't do much. They represent a fuck-you gesture more than anything with a substantial impact. It is believed that Iran's leadership does not hold assets in the international banking system nor do they use it to conduct transactions.

So, what's next? The Trump administration's quiver has exhausted all it's arrows with respect to sanctions. By the same token, Iran is out of options other than ratcheting up it's activities directed against shipping around the Gulf and especially in the straights of Hormuz that one would call area denial operations. That includes overt mine ops and other covert activity directed at a wide range of maritime activities. Another option for Iran is to target US military installations and troops stationed in Iraq - I mentioned this up thread and the US is vulnerable here. However, Iraq has made it clear it doesn't want to get dragged into a pissing contest between the US and Iran on it's territory. What impact that would have in dissuading Iran from undertaking such operations is unknown.

Over the next few weeks, I think we will see little of this. It invites a US and potentially international response in the way of lessening Iran's area denial operations. A direct attack on US forces in Iraq by militias known to be supported by Iran as a proxy force would also invite a US response and one I would think would be significant .... this is probably the arena, as a flash point, that would ignite a shooting war between the US and Iran if it comes to that.

I'm certain that planning is underway within US CENTCOM that is designed to anticipate multiple scenarios, strikes that might be conducted in response and along withthe costs and likely outcomes. This sort of thing goes on all the time at various levels so, stuff like this has been ongoing for along time. There is probably a lot of good risk/benefit analysis out there, none of it public, that can inform the NSC should it rise to that level in the short term.

Diplomatic overtures? They are ongoing as well. Publicly, neither side is going to admit they are. I think, given the Iranian regimes posture, there is slightly more than zero chance this will bring about public and international negotiations over Iran's nuclear plans in the short term. There will be a stalemate of sorts that Iran cannot endure over the long term. I think at some point, barring any flash point occurrences, one or both sides, will covertly concede something. The Iranians my concede to a review of JCPOA provisions and a tightening of the areas of verifiability that the Trump administration objected to. The US may agree to provide relief from the most painful sanctions that are affecting Iran's oil revenues.

I do think the risk of a flash point occurrence erupting into a much larger affair is pretty high at the moment. Over time, they should reduce as I think the Iranians are planning for a US administration to come that is less confrontational than the the current one. Makes sense.

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Dr. Strangelove]

Latest filing by the DOJ in the Duncan Hunter case is...whew boy.

They're accusing him of using campaign money to conduct numerous affairs with women. In one instance he used it to take a trip to Lake Tahoe with a female lobbyist, even charging a Sam Adams he had while there to the campaign.

No wonder his wife flipped on him when the govt started talking deal with her.

[iam416]

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[AlabamAlum]

Well, there goes my social security.

You know, this type of shit is gonna get Trump elected again.