Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

Are you saying DSL is a gigolo?

[iam416]

He is.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Idiots

[iam416]

Correct.

[AlabamAlum]

Seconded.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[iam416]

The default position for any politician is the political gain option. I mean, what did you honestly think -- that Barack Obama didn't have the first clue about what a "shovel ready job" is or that he blatantly mischaracterized that there were "millions of shovel ready jobs" ready for stimulus funding? Same sort of cool either/or could be asked of "keeping one's healthcare." Now, I doubt you asked those questions of Obama because you agreed with the policies. So, it was like, whatever.

However, PDJT is quite the anomaly in that it is hazardous to presume knowledge of anything. That said, I'd say he has at least a working knowledge of tariff basics and is simply operating with the standard political spin like nearly every other fucking POTUS before him (I'm can't say if Washington was a spinmiester).

In any event, it remains horrible policy regardless of what PDJT or anyone else says.

[AlabamAlum]

I think he knows that we import much more from China than we export so he feels he has leverage, and by making Chinese imports more expensive, people will buy the same shit from other countries- hopefully America.

But, yeah, he uses the "tarrifs NOW paid by China" line a lot. He has to do it intentionally because he follows it up with a "build your products here and there are no tarrifs" line.

[AlabamAlum]

And he is correct that China has more to lose in this pissing match.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I think behind closed doors, the Trump administration (not necessarily Trump himself) know exactly what they are doing. Trump is the face of Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). We need to look past Trump - actually discount just about everything he says which, by-in-large, is wrong and ill-informed..... and yes, he's speaking to his base and his language is intended to rally support for him. I don't think he gives a shit about what the USTR is actually doing nor does he understand it. He does care about asserting his dick is bigger than Xi's.

...... in all probability, it probably is, figuratively, at least, because I think, from what I've been reading and hearing, the USTR has some leverage with China. The problem for the USTR that Trump creates with his mouth is that there is potential for public embarrassment of Xi. The Chinese don't do well with that sort of thing. They are much more subtle. There is great potential for misunderstanding intent and language describing it. I think that is what the negotiators on both sides are going to be working through over the next couple of days.

As I understand it, and I think the USTR knows all of this and is proceeding accordingly, China, on a hihg level, is willing to ease restrictions on access for US companies to the Chinese market. I think they already have taken steps to reduce technology transfer inherent in their current trade laws. I think there is sensitivity to changing these laws to further advantage foreign companies but I also think they are open to discuss this. To what degree the Chinese are willing to codify how this is done is an open question. Currency manipulation that benefits China's bottom line trade figures? From what I've read, that is old news that the Chinese have taken steps to have banks reduce the amount of this going on .... but we aren't going to know what that is and how it is done and the Chinese side is not about to codify in some kind of trade law how it is going to be done going forward.

So, for the USTR, they are going to have to count a great deal on the word of the Chinese negotiators. They may get some concessions on codifying aspects of the trade deal but probably not get everything they want codified ....... well, because, they are Communists with centralized control of the economy resting with the Politburo and Xi's inner circle. China certainly has some aspects of a free market but, make no mistake, it is controlled, at least the extent to which it is actually free is controlled. But, it is the free market aspects of the Chinese Economy (trade with the US) that creates the flow of USD into the country's banks and then allows for the government to use US dollars to finance various international projects that have the effect of increasing China's sphere of influence globally.

Here's the problem: Since Trump doesn't understand much of this, Lighthizer, the chief USTR, is going to have to convince Trump, when a deal is presented to him, assuming a deal is reached between negotiators - and experts think a deal will be reached - that Trump is coming out on top of all of this and has beaten back XI, humbled him, asserted after measurement that his dick is, indeed, bigger than Xi's allowing Trump to loudly declare victory over those bastards who have been cheating us for decades (as inaccurate as that assessment actually is!).

Frankly, I have no idea if the USTR can do that with Trump. My sense is that Trump also has to be convinced to keep his yapper shut and not brag about getting the upper hand with Xi. That's a non-starter and if he insists on a presentation like that to the world, Xi may simply say, no deal.

[iam416]

And he is correct that China has more to lose in this pissing match.

I think that's correct, too. We've never actually played chicken with China before. I think you're absolutely correct that the US has the long-term, overall leverage. It's quite interesting, to me at least, that China's short-term leverage is negated by PDJT's obstinance. Typically, it's hard for a sitting president facing re-election to risk the short-term economic consequences for long-term gain. PDJT's political calculation is considerably different from the typical sitting president.

If I were China, I'd absorb the pain for the next 18 months on the likelihood that the next President will be a make-nice Sino-Sycophant.

[Ghengis Jon]

China waits and won't feel any pain at all. The tariffs are paid by American companies, that's who feels the pain. You forget that US businesses are crack whores when it comes to cost. Many Chinese products, even with a 25% tariff are still cheaper than what can be produced here. Let's say tariffs go to 50%, some other third world country like Viet Nam will pick up the slack. With costing so low, US companies will simply buy from VN, not China. Making products in the US is not even on the radar.

One of the issues the US has with China is the state subsidized businesses. Someone needs to point out to Very Stable Genius that China is a communist country. State control, ownership and sponsorship is the essence of their type of gov't. Demanding China reduce/stop subsidizing business is like them demanding a capitalist country like the US to not make a profit. That's needlessly creating hurdles that won't be overcome.

If you want to move the Chinese, you have to find leverage. Tariffs are not the answer since demand for Chinese products will not reduce. Keep increasing tariffs and the result will hurt our economy a lot faster than it will affect the Chinese. Bluster and lies about all the "billions in tariffs from the Chinese " will not get the deal done. The US has to find leverage. Tariffs, like the president, are stupid.



....a make-nice Sino-Sycophant...... heh

[Kapture1]

China waits and won't feel any pain at all. The tariffs are paid by American companies, that's who feels the pain. You forget that US businesses are crack whores when it comes to cost. Many Chinese products, even with a 25% tariff are still cheaper than what can be produced here. Let's say tariffs go to 50%, some other third world country like Viet Nam will pick up the slack. With costing so low, US companies will simply buy from VN, not China. Making products in the US is not even on the radar.

One of the issues the US has with China is the state subsidized businesses. Someone needs to point out to Very Stable Genius that China is a communist country. State control, ownership and sponsorship is the essence of their type of gov't. Demanding China reduce/stop subsidizing business is like them demanding a capitalist country like the US to not make a profit. That's needlessly creating hurdles that won't be overcome.

If you want to move the Chinese, you have to find leverage. Tariffs are not the answer since demand for Chinese products will not reduce. Keep increasing tariffs and the result will hurt our economy a lot faster than it will affect the Chinese. Bluster and lies about all the "billions in tariffs from the Chinese " will not get the deal done. The US has to find leverage. Tariffs, like the president, are stupid.



....a make-nice Sino-Sycophant...... heh

you just said demand for Chinese products will not reduce, a few sentences before you said US companies will look to other countries for products, thus cutting China out.


Perhaps you mean the demand for low cost products will not reduce, but China has a lot to lose with our business, not that it will effect us too much because we will pay .03 cents more and buy from another shithole like you indicated.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.............If you want to move the Chinese, you have to find leverage. Tariffs are not the answer since demand for Chinese products will not reduce. Keep increasing tariffs and the result will hurt our economy a lot faster than it will affect the Chinese. Bluster and lies about all the "billions in tariffs from the Chinese " will not get the deal done. The US has to find leverage. Tariffs, like the president, are stupid........

I disagree.

Tariffs are a useful tool of international diplomacy for most countries and in this case in particular the US v. China. China is vulnerable to decreased flow of USD attendant to the tariffs. China needs the flow of USD into the Chinese banking system to pay for it's projects worldwide intended to extend it's global influence.

Possibly more importantly in achieving a deal, Xi is seen among the powerful in the Communist party as THE GUY to lead the country. He needs to succeed in trade negotiations with China's biggest trading partner - the US to maintain that image. China observers think that Xi, when presented the deal previously negotiated, that he miscalculated Trump's dickishness, thinking he could get away with re-interpreting (Trump incorrectly called it renegotiating) the language that appeared to him to tie his hands by requiring his government to codify aspects of the deal. No deal under those interpretations said Trump.

The one negative for the US economy is that China's retaliatory tariffs are hurting, and will be hurt more in the current round of new tariffs, the agricultural and commercial goods producing sectors of the US economy. However, trade experts believe the US is in a better position to weather a short term, economic storm than China is to weather a decrease in the flow of USD into Chinese banks forcing China to blink first. To put this in perspective, Xi, THE GUY that he is thought to be, has embarked on a sweeping global aid program that is spending trillions (of USD) abroad; moreover, to protect those spheres of influence Xi is building a huge Navy capable of challenging the present global naval sea power, America. He can't afford to have those plans curtailed looking as if he has failed.

Stay tuned.

[Jeff Buchanan]

And just to demonstrate how the US can leverage it's economic clout as a means of extracting behavior from friends and foes, Turkey just cancelled it's purchase of the Russian S400 missile system after the US laid down it's terms for the sale of F35s to the Turkish AF - you buy the Russian S400 systems and we won't deliver the F35s.

I think China will come around and USTR Robert Lighthizer will get a deal that Trump can live with. The markets were down heavily world wide earlier today and generally all ended up (the DOW up 100+ points) at closings. Despite the on-going trade tensions, market observers tend to think businesses and the market itself have priced in the tariffs and moreover probably think a deal will ensue in time. We'll see.