Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Kapture1]

about as many people vote in California than some 25 other states combined. what we really need to do is take those extra democrat votes from California and spread them out to all those slop headed flyover states because its just not fair that more people live in California yet they have the same number of governors and Senators as Wyoming.


this is literally DSL's arguement. sound stupid? that's because it is.

[froot loops]

Unless or until the Mueller investigation turns something up concrete, impeachment is a losing electoral strategy. It doesn't get Trump out of office and gives Trump a campaign issue. The better bet is to vote him out of office. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be investigating. They came across a winning strategy for the midterms, it needs to converted into a winning presidential campaign strategy.

Doing the urban versus rural cultural divide strategy may be emotionally satisfying but I'm not sure its a winner, in fact I think its a loser. You are better off working to getting the mundane shit like getting the urban areas to turn out.

[iam416]

this is literally DSL's arguement. sound stupid? that's because it is.

You're burning strawmen, Kapture and titling at windmills.

DSL's literal argument is that the State of Wisconsin has drawn STATE districts to significantly favor Rs. Beyond the literal, his implicit argument -- or at least one that I implied -- is that it happens in lots of other places. It doesn't (or maybe it does -- hard to imagine not a single R rep in all of New England).

[iam416]

Doing the urban versus rural cultural divide strategy may be emotionally satisfying but I'm not sure its a winner, in fact I think its a loser. You are better off working to getting the mundane shit like getting the urban areas to turn out.

I think it's a pretty terrible strategy. The Ds already have their zombies lined up to vote by race. The Rs are way behind in getting their zombies lined up. Pushing a huge "us vs them" agenda only advances the Rs in that sense.

I would have thought the obvious lesson from the midterms is that suburbs and exurbs are very much in play. Those voters are turned off by PDJT's, to be charitable, unpresidential demeanor. But, if past elections are any indication, they side with a lot of Rs issues or, at a minimum, have little to no faith in D policies.

If the Ds can hold their shit together and be semi grown up they can maybe find a path to keeping those voters for a long time (they're going to keep them in 2020).

[Dr. Strangelove]

You're burning strawmen, Kapture and titling at windmills.

DSL's literal argument is that the State of Wisconsin has drawn STATE districts to significantly favor Rs. Beyond the literal, his implicit argument -- or at least one that I implied -- is that it happens in lots of other places. It doesn't (or maybe it does -- hard to imagine not a single R rep in all of New England).

In Ohio's case the discrepancy isn't as wide. Republicans at least WERE the majority party.

In Wisconsin, Republicans were the minority party by 8 points yet control 2/3 the legislature. IMO that doesn't happen unless you've very carefully drawn the districts to minimize the significance of urban/suburban areas as much as possible. Looking at the district maps it seems sorta obvious they tried to "quarantine" cities and burbs as much as possible

[froot loops]

I think it's a pretty terrible strategy. The Ds already have their zombies lined up to vote by race. The Rs are way behind in getting their zombies lined up. Pushing a huge "us vs them" agenda only advances the Rs in that sense.

I would have thought the obvious lesson from the midterms is that suburbs and exurbs are very much in play. Those voters are turned off by PDJT's, to be charitable, unpresidential demeanor. But, if past elections are any indication, they side with a lot of Rs issues or, at a minimum, have little to no faith in D policies.

If the Ds can hold their shit together and be semi grown up they can maybe find a path to keeping those voters for a long time (they're going to keep them in 2020).

I'm not sure the zombie analysis is correct in this post. The Republicans did turn out in the rural districts, I think they are kind of maxed out in that area. One thing Trump does is he activates the missing white voter that Trende identified in 2012. My previous post mentioned urban, but really I should have said urban and suburban, they is still some slack there from some of the numbers I've seen. We probably have to see more analysis in this area.

[iam416]

In Ohio's case the discrepancy isn't as wide. Republicans at least WERE the majority party

It's never 1:1. IMO, if you win 60% of the statewide vote then you could very easily win every single US House district (I'm not shocked, e.g., that it's 9-0 in Massachusetts even though they elected a R governor).

The margins in Ohio reflect a truly red state. Perhaps the State Senate shouldn't be as lopsided, but even then, the Ds lost a "safe" D seat in suburban Youngstown.

Wisconsin is a bluish-purple state. IMO, it's mostly, if not entirely, anomalous

[iam416]

I'm not sure the zombie analysis is correct in this post. The Republicans did turn out in the rural districts, I think they are kind of maxed out in that area.

Well, I think the Rs have room to max out the zombies in "non urban" areas. That would include suburbs and exurbs. In fact, I think they came close to hitting their floor with those voters in 2018.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Soybean exports to China have dropped by 98% this year

Trade wars are good and easy to win

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incredible-u-s-china-soybean-nosedive-one-chart-161047194.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well, I think the Rs have room to max out the zombies in "non urban" areas. That would include suburbs and exurbs. In fact, I think they came close to hitting their floor with those voters in 2018.

The R's will not max out their performance in the suburbs with Trump in office. When your brand has soured in places like Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City, Orange County, etc...

[iam416]

The R's will not max out their performance in the suburbs with Trump in office.

No. I think I've been clear that he's killing him in the suburbs to point of the Rs being at their floor there.

[Ghengis Jon]

Rake Finland Great Again

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-wildfires-trump-finland-ug/finns-respond-to-trump-by-raking-country-great-again-idUSKCN1NO1Y5

[Kapture1]

IT'S JUST NOT FAIR!!!!!! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


UpdateDistricts.jpg

[Jeff Buchanan]

Take Atlanta (which has a diverse mix of counties by race and income) and Broward county in general, Rs won both the gubernatorial and in the case of FL, senatorial races in close contests. Is this a good example of the value of the suburban and exurban factor you speak of? I think it is as it potentially depicts the impact of the rural vote, predominantly white, low to mid-income voters, off-setting any D advantage in the cities and surrounding burbs in these two states.

Also of note, both the gubernatorial races where racially charged to a degree I've not seen before. There were some pretty disgusting TV adds, radio blurbs and robo-calls in both states coming from typically way right of center republican organizations. I have no doubt this mobilized a large segment of Trump supporters to go to the polls and vote against these socialist, dark skinned folks working to take this country from you. That was certainly a theme in both states. Looks like it worked.

[iam416]

Abrams ran ahead of most other Ds statewide and Gillum ran basically the same as Nelson. It could be that folks voted party.

Tim Scott ain't gonna have no problem winning huge in South Carolina.