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Candidates matter and states matter, but the exit polling from places like Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota certainly suggest that Kav played more than an ephemeral role in those states.
What's less clear is to what extent the Kav Smear pushed R turnout. It was clear from the get go that the Ds were going to turn out like never before for a midterm, but it was never particularly clear that the Rs would turn out big. Well, they did in a lot of places that matter. It still wasn't enough, but maybe it could be worse.
That said, the House margins operate dependent on roughly 20-30 swing districts. IMO, the cap for either party is roughly 245 under normal ebb and flow. The Ds once in a generation confluence of factors in 2008 got them to 257 and then thing normalized in a hurry. So, if you're sitting in the 190s and you election day by 6 points you're going to have huge pickups. If you're sitting at 240 and you win election day by 6 points you may only get a couple seats and you only win by 1 point you may actually lose seats. This election was about as predictable as they come. The only reason it wasn't on par with 2010 is that the Rs hadn't "overwon" as many districts as the Ds did. In fact, the Rs were already losing close districts in 2016 even though they won the national vote.
The Senate is a different story. As the tribal politics grow they are starting to revert to the mean which favors the Rs. I mean, the 2020 map isn't particularly great for the Ds. They have 1 dead balls loss. They can probably pick up Colorado and maybe Arizona. They'll go hard after Collins in Maine, but that would seem like an uphill battle. And I'm sure they'll push hard in Iowa against Ernst, but that state just elected an R Governor. And assuming the Ds win in Arizona an successfully find enough ballots in Florida, it's still 52-48. And that means they have to win Arizona and Iowa/Maine (or, hey, Montana!) to win the Senate at 50/50.
Tester got a higher percentage of the vote than in either 2006 or 2012. Despite voting no on Kavanauagh AND Korsuch.
Donnelly and McCaskill are both Dems that probably should have already been voted out of office in 2012 but the Republican nominated woefully incompetent candidates. It probably did save Manchin however.
It's at least a distinct possibility. I think it hurt Donnelly. He probably had an uphill battle, but to lose fairly decisively wasn't good. I think Heitkamp was doomed regardless, though it was close for a long time. McCaskill was so lucky twice -- in fact, 2006 and 2012 explain why 2018 was such a bad map -- they won so many seats they probably shouldn't win. But, back to McC, it's hard because her two terms weren't due to Missouri loving her. Unlike, say, Tester. The Rs, incidentally, ran a pretty bad candidate against Tester.
I think you can point lots of House districts where Kav helped Ds. But, it was THE story for roughly ten days -- and for ten days about 5 weeks from election day. I think it's crazy to think it wasn't impactful, at least in some quarters. Again, the biggest factor either way was PDJT, but even the, I'm not sure it was a majority factor in more than a handful of races.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
WSJ says the Feds have evidence Trump was centrally involved in using campaign money for hush payments. Kinda sounds like not just Cohen but the National Enquirer guys too have rolled on The Don.
By producing a split decision, the election that was supposed to end all elections turned out to be fairly predictable. But it’s the day after that was unlike any other. The Republican president, t…
Another good graphic demonstrating how far out of line Broward's non-participation in the Senate race was. That voters in Broward county and ONLY Broward County intentionally skipped the Senate race on their ballots by the tens of thousands is not a plausible argument to me. If people overlooked it because of the ballot design then so be it, there's nothing you can do.
UPDATE (Nov. 10, 2018, 2:23p.m.): Since first publishing this article, the Florida secretary of state has ordered a machine recount in the U.S. Senate, governor…
Much like Trump, Rick Scott has huffed and puffed and made threats all of which comes off as "impressive" to his stooge-like supporters. But he speaks more powerfully than he acts.
There is no investigation. There are no actual allegations. There's just hot air.
Much like Trump, Rick Scott has huffed and puffed and made threats all of which comes off as "impressive" to his stooge-like supporters. But he speaks more powerfully than he acts.
There is no investigation. There are no actual allegations. There's just hot air.
WSJ says the Feds have evidence Trump was centrally involved in using campaign money for hush payments. Kinda sounds like not just Cohen but the National Enquirer guys too have rolled on The Don.
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