Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Kapture1]

13yt86mqm1w11.png?width=890&auto=webp&s=c1c03b75c36495f26755feb0ee2a327f5a92b94a.png

[Dr. Strangelove]

So in the past couple weeks we've had:

* A neo-nazi murdered nearly a dozen people at a synagogue because he believed Jews were paying brown immigrants to come here and commit so-called 'white genocide". It turns out this same neo-nazi's father committed suicide while on trial for rape in the same neighborhood as the mass murder.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2018/11/01/randall-robert-bowers-court-case-sealed-order-tree-of-life-allegheny-county/stories/201811010164

* A white supremacist in Kentucky tried to slaughter a black congregation but went to kill blacks at Wal-Mart instead when he couldn't get past the locked doors. He told someone he spared that "whites don't kill whites"

* An obsessive Trump fan mailed pipe bombs to prominent Democrats and critics of Trump

* A right-wing self-described 'misogynist' and member of the Incel Movement decided to go kill as many women as he could at a yoga studio

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/03/us/tallahassee-shooting-yoga-studio/index.html

[WingsFan]

Thanks, but 42-7 !!

[Dr. Strangelove]

You'll enjoy, wings

[Dr. Strangelove]

More Nevada early voting stats no one cares about

Total Registered Voters (Oct. 2018)
Clark County: 1,258,215
Washoe County: 302,356
Rest of State: 214,740

Number that Have Already Voted (11/3/18)
Clark County: 424,204 (33.7%)
Washoe County: 121,552 (40.2%)
Rest of State: 84,166 (39.1%)

Assume turnout approaches 70%, which is high for a normal midterm but might not be this year

Total Vote
Clark: 880,751
Washoe: 211,649
Rest:150,318

If Proportions between registered parties stay the same:

Party Breakdown at 70% Turnout
Clark: Dem. 397,219 (45.1%), Rep. 298,575 (33.9%), Ind.184,958 (21%)
Washoe: Dem. 85,718 (40.5%), Rep. 82,755 (39.1%), Ind. 43,176 (20.4%)
Rest: Dem. 36,527 (24.3%), Rep. 84,328 (56.1%), Ind. 29,312 (19.5%)

Total: Dem. 519,464, Rep. 465,658, Ind. 257,466

Numerous caveats:

1) No one really knows how Independents will swing. Polls suggest them breaking for Dems in the single digits but there's no guarantee of that.

2) Turnout could end up being lower in Clark than the rest of the state. If that's the case, it's good for Republicans

3) Unclear if the Republicans are turning out new rural voters or 'cannibalizing' them and there will be fewer to report in on the actual Election Day. Traditionally Nevada Republicans do better than the Dems do on Election Day itself.

4) In 2016 Dems had about a 60,000 edge in Clark County early voting. This year it wound up being 47,500. That's very good turnout for a midterm year but might not be enough if Republicans turnout at the same numbers as 2016 (unlikely but possible).

Overall you'd rather be the Dems heading into Election Day but it's probably only like 55-45 odds or 60-40 odds max.

[Kapture1]

dems have lost the messaging on the caravan. republicans and Trump specifically said it is a crisis. instead of saying the caravan is a problem but it isn't a crisis, they jumped straight to it's not a crisis, it's not a problem at all.

given the two choices, most Americans say it's clearly a problem. dems are saying is not a problem at all so they go with it must be a crisis.

[Kapture1]

I'm sure the media, including CNN and MSNBC, will blame 0bama's tone and hostility toward the Jewish state for his supporter's hate crime.

[CGVT]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Good video, cgvt

[Dr. Strangelove]

2 days before the election and Brian Kemp announces he's suddenly investigating Georgia Democrats for "possible crimes". He gives no specifics, just says someone tried to hack the voter registration system. Gives no reason why the Democrats are under suspicion. Kemp controls the office that counts the votes and runs the election.

Imagine if this was happening in a foreign country. Would you think it sounded like the election was being handled fairly?

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/414748-kemps-office-opens-investigation-into-georgia-democrats-for-possible

[Ghengis Jon]

Fox will fire Smith when Trump fires Sessions. Distraction for both.

[CGVT]

40112693_10209739684688966_2013929123080044544_n.jpg

[hack]

Imagine if this was happening in a foreign country. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...s-for-possible

The whole thing collapses if people understand where we are now and how that governance gap has closed, but exceptionalism makes that even more difficult than it would have been otherwise. Whether Americans collectively have the ability to not only stop digging but to work their way out of this hole -- hard to imagine a bigger comeback story.

On a smaller scale, it's going to be interesting to see what the UK does with the Arron Banks investigation. I get the feeling that hitting bottom in that country is going to be easier, but I'm not sure why I have that feeling. That country's elites are even more reliant on their City of London finance scam than this country's elites are on their K Street>Wall Street scam.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Columbus Dispatch says nearly 4 times as many people have voted early in Franklin County as 2014. Wonder if it's like that all over the state?

[crashcourse]

kobach is our sec of state

so far no shenanigans and if a recount is needed incoming SOS may have to handle that

have a felling kobach gets beat though

the SNL skit was pretty good--enjoued the other skit later in the show also showing democratic voter paranoia after what happened in 2016 and what they hope doesn't happen tommroow