Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Kapture1]

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[iam416]

Tahiti Coates brings a perspective that is worth reading even if I disagree with him almost entirely. I prefer to listen to him than read him, but either way. The Atlantic is surely in mourning as their messiah departs.

[Dr. Strangelove]

And the EU can farcically fine US companies billions.



I wouldn't think China can "win" a trade war against the US -- apparently you do. I can certainly see a painful stalemate, though.

China will do significant damage to itself but like I say, their government has far less accountability to its citizenry and can take all sorts of actions that are not legal here.

The bottom line is China simply does not run out of ways to retaliate once we cross a certain threshold of import value. Trump's implying that just because they can't match dollar for dollar after a certain point, they will cave. Maybe the best they can achieve is a painful stalemate but I certainly think they have every incentive to go that route.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Cohen and Trump on tape, discussing Karen McDougal. Cohen had LOTS of recordings, it would appear, and powerful people other than Trump have reason to be nervous.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/michael-cohen-donald-trump-playboy-model-recording/index.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump's been taking a week-long beating over Russia and today the Michael Cohen stuff comes out, so what's a favorite topic to bring up? Oh yeah!

This might be the most transparent "let's change the subject" he's ever attempted

[froot loops]

The 40 million dollar commish wishes he could take a stand, that shit needs to be collectively bargained. That's why the Ginger Hammer hasn't done anything, he would if he could have. I hqve got an answer to this never ending saga, the players agree to stand and the commish gives up his power to discipline as he sees fit and they burn the blacklist.

[Ghengis Jon]

How is it that suffering childhood abuse somehow translates into a free pass from capital punishment? You earn a Get-Out-Of-The-Chair-Free card if you've been badly treated when young? Let's ask the victims of this monster - oh wait, we can't, they're corpses. Childhood abuse is not a 'mitigating circumstance'. The crimes he committed had nothing to do with his childhood. If he murdered an abusive father, then yes, it's a mitigating circumstance. To murder your caretaker and her spouse because they didn't approve of your crack habit? That sounds like a gallows express lane, not 3 hots and a cot with free medical coverage for the rest of your life.

https://www.apnews.com/dad28c9132924d1d8ad7d45557ff089b/Ohio-killer-spared-after-extent-of-childhood-abuse-revealed

[froot loops]

Bad news about the Duck Boat accident, I have been on that in Table Rock lake. You literally are out on the lake for 5 minutes.

[CGVT]

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[Jeff Buchanan]

Worthy of note and a continuation of my post up thread regarding China's currency.

Yesterday, Trump announced that "China is a currency manipulator." He certainly can do this sort of thing but most economists think this kind of rhetoric is counterproductive. Personally, I don't give a shit about Trump's tweets or his frequent dumb ass pronouncements but this one is different.

The US Treasury reports to Congress on trade and currency issues and maintains a watch list of potential and actual currency manipulators. There are criteria to be included in this watch list. China has never officially been identified by Treasury as a currency manipulator but Treasury has threatened in the past to do so, Currently it does not meet Treasury's criteria for being labeled as such but yet ..... fucking Trump.

The impact of being officially labeled a currency manipulator by Treasury is to give the monitored or identified country either potentially manipulating or actually manipulating its currency 12 months to clean up it's act by reducing the trade deficit through monetary policy, i.e., increasing the value of it's currency in relationship to the dollar. This has the effect of narrowing any trade deficits. This is the normal way of doing things.

Of course, Trump is not normal, so, his announcement yesterday. It has no official impact at all. China can do nothing and be fine and it will. What Trump has done, however, is dangerous and, once again, not well thought out. I can't find a single commentator with the economic acumen to be considered reliable that thinks all of this is fine and will help Trump achieve his objectives, i.e., renegotiation of various trade deals more accommodating to US interests. All this does is to keep Chinese/US trade and political relationships on a knife edge with the increasing potential for some kind of accident occurring - a mis-step if you will - by either side.

What Trump's pronouncement yesterday, outside of the normal ways to do things, definitely did is to increase the likelihood of considerable contraction of the global economy by pressuring, i.e., creating uncertainty over currency fluctuations in the corporate realm. The net effect of this is anticipatory lay-offs, delay of capital projects and expansion and accumulation of cash reserves that are already quite high.

People like us and other working stiffs in the world economy are going to feel this a whole lot more than we might feel the increased price of a new car or washer/dryer. Employment will decrease, low savings rates already present in the US will get worse, deflationary pressures will take a toll, the housing market will decline, and the US economy, currently doing well, will contract. It's called a recession and we can rightly blame Trump if this transpires, and most experts are thinking that it will.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Also "Your favorite President" = Abraham Lincoln.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Frankly, I could care less about Cohen's tapes - at least this one. Everybody knows DJT is a cocksman or at least he claims he is. I suppose you could get agitated that he's a security risk becasue of the potential for black mailing him but that sort of goes away once the content of this kind of material is released. Meh.

Hack or Geezer, I'd be interested in your take on the impact of an emerging currency war between the US and China.

[Ghengis Jon]

It's been an open secret for many years that China manipulates it's currency, overtly or otherwise. I think the flapping of Trump's jaws is more to keep the issue (and more importantly himself) in the day's newscast. He's used up his tariff threat and there's not much left in the quiver that doesn't involve self destructive measures such as an actual embargo. I think it's more of a message to China, delivered publicly in his usual spontaneous and buffoonish manner. If the Treasury (ie Trump) decides to apply the manipulator label, it will set into motion actions that will be beyond Trump's control. Tariffs can be suspended with a swipe of the pen, triggering a law is not as easy. Trump seems to be saying that he's quite willing to back himself into a corner.

[Jeff Buchanan]

..... continuing in the vein of what happens if a currency war actually ensues: I read today that informed observers with a good understanding of the currency markets aren't overly worried about this actually happen, i.e., there is more public talk going on than there is the likelihood of actual steps being taken by the central banks most involved (the US, EU, China and Asia) to take concrete steps to devalue currencies to retaliate against Trump's fuck you trade policy. I've also read that the drop in the value of the Yuan on Friday was a mild reaction, possibly a warning created by the Central Bank in China, that china is prepared to defend it's trading interests using currency devaluation to do so.

There is more wringing of hands by amateur media financial writers and their editors, hoping to grab some headlines, than there is legitimate concerns from the world's bankers about a real currency war. So, this is encouraging. But, under any future outcomes, Trump by his nature, creates uncertainty and equity markets hate that. I read some posts on a personal investment blog I read regularly that the timing of the onset or cessation of a currency war is unknown, it's impact is unknown and therefore and at this point, nothing is actionable with regard to short term investment strategies. Do nothing. Sometimes that's hard even when you've built an investment portfolio that is designed to withstand downside volatility and it's inherent risks.