Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

What's in Ted Cruz's legislation?

[Jeff Buchanan]

What's in Ted Cruz's legislation?

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/06/18/ted-cruz-immigrant-families-together-border-texas/

This is what I'm talking about ....... Congress getting off their asses and fixing the existing legislation that creates the kind of loop-holes in immigration enforcement that are a legitimate concern. I'd have to see the legislation itself to give a decent opinion if it fixes the problems that I am familiar with. The devil is always in the details and the details rarely get widely reported because you can't do that in a 45 second piece on broadcast TV. The details are out there. You just have to dig for them.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Oof...how to mislead with statistics.

Nielson warned that they have seen a 314% increase in the number of people posing as fake parents in order to cross the border with kids. That sounds dramatically bad.

But the WP looked at the raw numbers and DHS has reported 191 cases of this "family fraud" since the start of the year. But that is out of 31,102 total family units arrested at the border this year.

In other words, only 0.61% of all families caught by the Border Patrol are these smugglers/gang members/fraudsters. The remaining 99.39% of families that have arrived were legitimate.

These are the numbers that DHS itself is reporting. To be clear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/06/18/how-to-mislead-with-statistics-dhs-secretary-nielsen-edition/?utm_term=.263098b9030b

[Dr. Strangelove]

Like I said, even Da Mooch is distancing himself from the White House on this. Although he's careful to explain that he thinks the President himself is blameless and its just the fault of bad underlings.

[Dr. Strangelove]

His point, which holds true, that all three, violent crime, homicide and rape have increased since the influx of migrants. If the numbers are up 10%, but then drop by 5, then crime is still up, no?

To return to this, if crime goes up in 3 or 4 years out of 25 and falls in the most recent year, is it accurate to say is going up very badly? I would say no.

To add more perspective, here are the actual crime rates for Germany since 2008

2008: 6.1%
2009: 6.0%
2010: 5.9%
2011: 6.0%
2012: 6.0%
2013: 6.0%
2014: 6.0%
2015: 6.3%
2016: 6.4%
2017: 5.8%

Current crime rates are now at or below the levels pre-dating the mass refugee arrivals. And while there was a noticeable bump in 2015-16 is was not at the catastrophic levels that Far Right immigrant bashers would have you believe.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff, Jonathan Turley, one of Fox's go-to legal experts, was on Fox an hour ago and he was clear; there is NO LAW requiring Trump to separate families at the border. End stop. I believe Alan Dershowitz said something similar earlier in the day. Both have been sharp critics of the Russia investigation and have been very critical of Comey and Mueller, so they aren't Trump-bashers in any sense.

Sessions, Kelly, and Stephen Miller have ALL described it as a policy in recent months, when they thought it was going to be a huge hit with their voters.They ANNOUNCED IT as a new policy back in April!! Why are you acting like Trump's hands are tied? They aren't.

No one's claiming that DHS has always been doing this, not even Nielson, so if they are simply following the law NOW then at the start of the year they must NOT have been following the law. Is that not logical?

Logical? Yes it is.

The point in my post was not meant to criticize you as I think your contributions here are very worthwhile. But I'm not sure where you were going with the question. Is the answer of consequence? Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. What is of consequence is that people who want to get behind the podium in this debate damn well better understand the law, what entities involved in immigration enforcement do and what the processes in place to do it are. There is too much uninformed opinion floating around on this subject ..... and let me be clear. I don't think you are uninformed.

The problem for me in this debate is that how the Trump administration fashioned the Zero Tolerance Policy is based on existing law and how the courts have interpreted it. I referenced above the multiple legislative and legal undertakings over the last 4 administrations that have had an impact on policy development and enforcement of 1325, 1326 and several other laws that apply in this debate that collectively define US Immigration policy.

I'm no legal immigration expert but, IMO, you really have to get into the weeds on this to understand what might be accomplished by criminalizing the act of violating 1325(a) - i.e., prosecuting alleged illegal boarder crossings by aliens in the District and not Magistrate Courts. Fundamentally, though, I don't think the Zero Tolerance Policy is illegal or unconstitutional. The administration believes, whatever their motives are, that the flow of illegal immigrants from Central and South America across the SW US boarder has to stop or at best be reduced. I think that is a reasonable objective. Separating children from adults or parents who have illegally entered the US is not illegal; that process is, however, unseemly. Change the process and, if necessary, change the laws that resulted in that process.

As I'm reading it, I think it is correct to say no law stipulates that the children of aliens violating 1325(a) must be separated from the aliens. However, that is part of the process implemented to conform to the law as it is understood under 1325 and 1326. So, (1) Legislation would have to be passed to change the process, specifically that involved with the process that DHS undertakes for the children of illegal aliens, since it is ostensibly based on the law. (2) Pass legislation that clarifies existing laws or pass new ones that address the real problem of Central and South American aliens illegally coming across the SW boarders of the US. That legislation also has to conform with any number of treaties that the US is signatory to. This is no small matter and I'll continue to assert that there aren't any simple yes or no answers to many of the questions that are being asked about separating children from adults or parents who have illegally entered the US.

[froot loops]

There is probably nothing illegal with it, traumatizing little kids to try and deter border crossings is probably perfectly legal. Hey it might even serve as a true deterrent even at the small cost of terrorizing a few thousand kids. It doesn't mean it's right, but if it doesn't affect his base it is cost free. Most of the supporters of his base share his barely concealed contempt for illegal immigrants. In their eyes these people are animals and that is the secret sauce of holding his coalition together.

[Kapture1]

To return to this, if crime goes up in 3 or 4 years out of 25 and falls in the most recent year, is it accurate to say is going up very badly? I would say no.

To add more perspective, here are the actual crime rates for Germany since 2008

2008: 6.1%
2009: 6.0%
2010: 5.9%
2011: 6.0%
2012: 6.0%
2013: 6.0%
2014: 6.0%
2015: 6.3%
2016: 6.4%
2017: 5.8%

Current crime rates are now at or below the levels pre-dating the mass refugee arrivals. And while there was a noticeable bump in 2015-16 is was not at the catastrophic levels that Far Right immigrant bashers would have you believe.

im talking violent crime, not petty crime lmao

from the Washington post article

"A close reading of German crime statistics does offer a complicated picture of crime trends. There has been a sharp rise in the number of non-German suspects interviewed by police in Germany over the past five years, for example, and although violent crime dropped 2.4 percent last year, it had already risen by 6.7 percent between 2015 and 2016."


here's another article from Reuters

[Dr. Strangelove]

By a veto-proof margin of 85-15, The Senate voted to uphold sanctions on the Chinese phone company ZTE, that nearly everyone in the intelligence/defense industry suspects of IT theft. But Trump is hellbent on protecting the company because of some kind of promise he made Chairman Xi and he will hold secret meetings with Republicans-only invited to pressure them into giving him what he wants.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/trump-plans-to-discuss-zte-compromise-with-lawmakers-wednesday

[Dr. Strangelove]

im talking violent crime, not petty crime lmao

from the Washington post article

"A close reading of German crime statistics does offer a complicated picture of crime trends. There has been a sharp rise in the number of non-German suspects interviewed by police in Germany over the past five years, for example, and although violent crime dropped 2.4 percent last year, it had already risen by 6.7 percent between 2015 and 2016."


here's another article from Reuters

Yes, violent crime DROPPED last year. And is overall down over the course of 25 years. So it is not "accurate" to say crime is going up if both the overall trend is downward and the most recent year saw a decline.

[Kapture1]

Yes, violent crime DROPPED last year. And is overall down over the course of 25 years. So it is not "accurate" to say crime is going up if both the overall trend is downward and the most recent year saw a decline.

actually it is. It can be on a downward trend for 20 years, then up the last three. It is correct to say that crime rates are up, and the reason is well documented.

You are saying "he's not right because there was more violent crime 20 years ago then right now (even though that doesn't matter) and it is down slightly last year even though not down as it was up the previous year



still makes him correct.

[WingsFan]

Sarah Sanders was getting bombarded with immigration questions so she frantically looked for a friendly face and chose a NewsMax reporter, expecting the usual softball question

Instead, he cited German crime statistics (which are at record lows) and asked where Trump is getting his information that crime is soaring in Germany because of immigrants?

Sanders answered "I'm not aware of that report and will look into it. Next!"

Reporter: "Sarah, it's not a report, these are official government figures"

Sanders: "NEXT!"

Kudos to that NewsMax guy (don't know his name) for not laying down for her.

Fake News! Frantically looking around for a friendly face? Really?? She just calmly put first lady Bush in her place, then pointed to Gizzi. After Gizzi's question she answered.

"I'm not aware of that report and will be happy look into it - and circle back, then repeated herself. Not sure if your making up about 'NEXT' or what?

Start the video at 30:15

[froot loops]

Who gives a flying fuck about the numbers, do they want Merkel to lose a confidence vote and give a far right coalition more power? Trump wants bad shit to happen so he can fucking gloat. I know it is unfashionable to support the post WWII order, but that order was in place specifically because the far right in Germany is not to be trusted.

All so Wing dog can post fawning admiration for Huckabee. Give me a break.

[WingsFan]

If you mean pointing out when someone is outright lying? Yes --- Your not at your best when losing your temper

[froot loops]

You are missing the larger point trying to keep score with your idol Huckabee.