Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

I had a really interesting with talk with one of Ohio's Manufacturing Extension Partnerships (MEPs) the other day. Their relevant work for this story is to industry to connect and train workforce.

Anyway, they were talking about two separate issues they had with specific manufacturers. The first was a company wanted to expand and open up a new facility and create 50-75 jobs in a more rural part of Ohio. But, they decided not to do it because they couldn't fill the jobs (they were $20/hr jobs -- so $40K -- which is certainly livable in a really low cost part of the state). Part of the reason was a slight skills deficiency -- but that's easily overcome. The other part is failed drug tests (a huge problem). In the manufacturing space (for liability purposes), you pretty much need to drug test new employees. In that particular employee pool it's becoming increasingly difficult to find employees that can do that. Which, of course, means that they don't get jobs and it cycles.

The other story -- way more anecdotal -- was that a company was offering a $14/hr job. A single mother took the job, but then had to back out. The reason -- she'd lose HUD subsidies to go along with the other benefits she was getting. She could handle not getting the direct welfare -- the job was worth more -- but total benefits package that she'd lose meant the job was a net loss (barely). The company estimates that it needs to come in at $17/hr to get someone like her (who they wanted). So, presumably they hire someone who isn't quite as benefit-confined. I would have liked to ask why not just go up $3/hr -- or rather, what are your margins and what's the value of someone you really want vs someone you are willing to accept.

But the interesting take I got from that particular MEP was that their are jobs out there -- but there are some real issues that limit the available workforce (which I know are true -- but it was interesting to hear from folks in "the field.").

/s [Anecdotal nonsense]

[Hannibal]

For as long as I have been paying attention, I have been hearing divergent stories about employers not being able to fill jobs while there are supposedly good, qualified, experienced peole that are forced to flip burgers or whatever because they can't find middle class jobs.

[iam416]

If you were to talk to the policy people throughout Ohio you'd hear the former version far more than the latter. Both, I suspect, could be true. If you like to light up and can't pass a drug test then you're destined for jobs that don't require that you pass a drug test. Unfortunately, the "middle class" jobs often do.

I really don't know. I can only speak to what I've been told.

[Hannibal]

The man is personally unpopular beyond belief and for good reason. His total unfitness is, IMO, the absolute cause of his low numbers. When Obama was low, conversely, it was because of the legislation he and the Ds passed. Strikes me as much harder to deshackle from policy and legislation than personal distaste.

That is about as good a way to summarize it as any.

DRUMPFCHEETOHITLER is unpopular personally but his policy ideas, on the whole, are popular. Those policies are what Congres has some control of. DC Republicans are, unfortunately, very weak, stupid, gullible, and gutless -- too dumb to recognize that distinction. The media is going to put the full court press on Republicans to bait them into distancing themselves from Trump. I expect them to fall for it hook, line, and sinker. Most of the party is still composed of the people who would have passed illegal immigrant amnesty were it not for a massive grassroots revolt. Since then, the Tea Party and the Red Hats have dragged the Republicans, kicking and screaming, into adopting policies that Amerians actually want.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump's CDC Director resigns less than 24 hours after Politico reveals she's been buying tobacco stock since being appointed. She had other previously known conflicts of interest flagged too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/dr-brenda-fitzgerald-head-of-the-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-resigns.html

[Kapture1]

[Dr. Strangelove]

FBI Director Wray opposes the release of the memo. Says it's inaccurate and paints a false narrative

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/trump-says-100-percent-after-he-s-asked-to-release-gop-memo

[Kapture1]

Justice Department investigating McCabe's handling of Clinton Email probe


The Justice Department’s internal watchdog has been investigating why ex-FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe apparently sat on his hands for about three weeks after Hillary Clinton’s emails were found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop, a new report said Tuesday.

Inspector General Michael Horowitz wants to know why some top FBI officials appeared less than enthusiastic about probing the emails, which were sent by top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, Weiner’s long-suffering wife, The Washington Post reported.

McCabe waited until late October — just weeks before the election and roughly three weeks after they were discovered — to begin scrutinizing the messages, some of which were classified.
Horowitz is trying to figure out whether McCabe or anyone else at the bureau wanted to delay action on the emails until after the election — but has not come to any conclusions, the paper reported.

He also wants to know who knew about Clinton’s emails on Weiner’s laptop — which were discovered in late September 2016 — and when they learned about them.

Then-FBI director James Comey announced in late October that the bureau was reopening its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state in light of the Weiner discovery.

Clinton backers slammed Comey at the time, saying the 11th-hour announcement hurt Clinton and helped Trump.

Days later, Comey again shut down the probe and said the emails added nothing new to the case.

McCabe’s defenders told the paper that there was nothing suspicious going on and that FBI brass were being cautious about evaluating the emails so close to the election.

But pressure on the brass was mounting within the bureau to move on the emails after it was disclosed that McCabe’s wife, Jill, had received hundreds of thousands of dollars for her Virginia state Senate bid from a PAC connected to then-Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton crony.

Jill McCabe lost that race — but the revelation enraged Trump, who took to Twitter to attack the couple, saying the donation proved McCabe was biased against him.

“How can FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, the man in charge, along with leakin’ James Comey, of the Phony Hillary Clinton investigation (including her 33,000 illegally deleted emails) be given $700,000 for wife’s campaign by Clinton Puppets during investigation?” he wrote on Dec. 23.

FBI Director Chris Wray, meanwhile, told his troops that McCabe abruptly resigned over concerns about the IG’s report — not because of repeated attacks from Trump.

Wray sent a message to the bureau’s staffers hours after McCabe announced that he was stepping down — though he will remain on the payroll using accrued time off until March, when his pension benefits max out.

Wray said he had seen parts of the IG’s report on how the FBI handled the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server as secretary of state, NBC News reported.

“It would be inappropriate for me to comment on specific aspects of the IG’s review right now,” Wray said in the message, denying that pressure from the administration and its Congressional allies played a role in the departure.
“But I can assure you that I remain staunchly committed to doing this job, in every respect, ‘by the book.’ I will not be swayed by political or other pressure in my decision making.”

Trump thought McCabe, a career G-man who once worked in the New York office, was too friendly with Comey.

The president flew into a rage when he saw on TV that Comey had taken a government plane home from Los Angeles after Trump fired him over the ongoing probe into Russian meddling in the US election and possible collusion with Team Trump.

The commander-in-chief phoned McCabe and demanded to know who had approved it.

McCabe replied that he didn’t authorize the flight — but would have if asked.

The president then told McCabe that he should call his wife and ask her how it feels to be a loser.

“OK, sir,” McCabe replied, and Trump hung up on him.

Jill McCabe is a mother of two and a highly regarded pediatric emergency physician and hospital administrator in the capital area.

https://nypost.com/2018/01/30/justice-department-investigating-mccabes-handling-of-clinton-email-probe/

[Kapture1]

[SeattleLionsFan]

I don’t know that polling bears out this narrative that Trumps policies are incredibly popular. The tax bill was gravely unpopular, as was the attempt at repeal.

His divisive rhetoric is popular with his base. But his actual legislative priorities?

[Da Geezer]

Trump sues Palm Beach County AGAIN over their property appraisal for his Jupiter golf course. His lawsuit contends the estimate of $19.7 million is way too high and it's worth $15 M, tops.

In his federal financial disclosure forms he claimed the course was worth "at least" $50M.

Is this typical in real estate, Geezer?

Every state's method for appealing assessments is different. It is not unusual for a $ 15m property to be assessed at $ 19.5. Assessors are not supposed to take note of the name of the owner, but they all do. My read on this is that in protesting a $ 19.7 M assessment on a golf course, the person representing Trump will make the case that golf courses are selling for far less than they were 10 years ago, and will present some cheap sales.

True cash value is willing buyer, willing seller, no compunction, all cash sale, reasonable exposure to the market. Other than that, I am only an expert on Michigan tax appeals.

Valuing the property at $ 50m on a disclosure form seems to me just being careful not to undervalue anything. I suspect Trump wanted to show as high a net worth as possible, something that I'd guess is the opposite of many politicians. I also suspect that Trump's lines of credit have the $ 50m valuation.

I had a case several years ago where I was asked to value a nuclear reactor electric generation property. I suspect you could see that valuing such a property is almost impossible since there is not much of a market for nuclear reactors. I represented the Township and used an income approach to value.

To answer your question directly, it is not unusual in Michigan for the Taxable Value of a $ 50m property to be true cash value of $ 19.7m (which in MI is reduced to $ 9.85m for no particular reason except that the law requires that taxable value cannot be more than 50% of TCV, confusing as hell for everyone). It is unusual for someone to appeal such a situation because it opens up the "capping" at 19.7 and the Tax Tribunal could conceivably set a new TCV at $ 50m (which in MI yields an assessment of $ 25M).

[Ghengis Jon]

If you were to talk to the policy people throughout Ohio you'd hear the former version far more than the latter. Both, I suspect, could be true. If you like to light up and can't pass a drug test then you're destined for jobs that don't require that you pass a drug test. Unfortunately, the "middle class" jobs often do...

I don't think that will change until drug testing can test for 'under the influence' economically. Take marijuana for instance. The hair and urine tests give a positive result from up to 30 days from intake. So you could smoke a single joint 3 weeks ago and you'd have the same test result as if you fired one up in the testing lab waiting room.

But an economical, accurate, and time oriented test is not the sole answer. It will also take a change in gov't policy position. The Feds, guided by Mr Sessions directives, views weed as equal to heroin. Its not.

I don't want my airline pilot doing shots or blunts just before takeoff, but I don't care what he did three weeks ago. Until gov't, and by extension business, modifies their policies to better reflect cause and effect, failing to fill a position for zero tolerance policies remains a self inflicted wound. Treating a casual pot smoker like a heroin junkie seems a bit rash.

[iam416]

I don't think that will change until drug testing can test for 'under the influence' economically. Take marijuana for instance. The hair and urine tests give a positive result from up to 30 days from intake. So you could smoke a single joint 3 weeks ago and you'd have the same test result as if you fired one up in the testing lab waiting room

Right. So, there are a couple of things at play here. First, some companies absolutely have to do drug tests, at least preliminary drug tests, for liability purposes. You mention pilots, but welders or heavy machine operators ought not be high either.

Second, most of these companies don't view marijuana as some sort of evil, but they do view the inability to commit to the requisite clean period as less than desirable.

Third, employees often aren't aware of when they need to be clean. So they apply for a job posting, get the job right away subject to a test and fail. Or the test is in two weeks and they still fail.

From a State perspective, you want people in those jobs. So if (1) isn't going to change -- and it's probably not -- then you focus on (2, 3). We're thinking about ways to "mentor" prospective employees through this process including making it very clear when they need to start clean living in order to procure the job.

[Wild Hoss]

So if there are unwavering conditions to employment, and your local workforce is consistently struggling to clear the bar, where do employers go to find their labor...?

[Kapture1]

I don?t know that polling bears out this narrative that Trumps policies are incredibly popular. The tax bill was gravely unpopular, as was the attempt at repeal.

His divisive rhetoric is popular with his base. But his actual legislative priorities?