Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

Point is it is possible to understand events and develop a well informed opinion about them at all levels. Not easy, especially for average man who may not look at multiple sources and critically exam them and maybe even more difficult for above average man who is doing that but is time constrained by work and has family responsibilities.


Pick and choose five, and, maybe yes. Pick another five on which you can be stale and still probably right. And, in some case, pick getting your facts straight or your underlying concepts, but not both. As an example, this week's Economist story on The Ambassador Bridge, to use a local/relevant case. Three factual errors, but they nailed the conceptual stuff.

IMO things have become incredibly complicated. We are foolish to think we understand any one current event and its underlying dynamics unless we are exposed to it and thinking about it on a regular basis and are regularly updating what we know and refining our conclusions. There's no dipping in for a quick immersion and coming out with lasting and accurate comprehension.

Which is why Wiz has the right idea. We should all find three indestructible punchlines and base all discourse on them.

STFU
shaddup
Stop The Run

[whodean]

What are the grave consequences and when do they happen? It's been a warning since Hamilton prevailed over Jefferson.

I am traveling, no time for a lengthy post.

Here's are the basics.

http://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-consequences-growing-national-debt

Some reputable economists believe the consequences will be on the more extreme end of the spectrum and could happen very suddenly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hack]

The size of the debt is a legit question, but 2039 is the opposite of suddenly. And this is the same discussion as all the other discussions. Either we're going to be at a banana-republic level of income inequality and have a host of side-effects, like having an unsustainable economy and social stresses and an oversized national debt, or we're going to end the political and regulatory capture of government by the financial sector and multinationals.

But I'm not clear or convinced by that. To start with, it's not clear what number they are actually using: debt held by "the public" (does that mean people or state entities?) or debt:GDP, which is the standard metric and referred to later.

[hack]

STFU
shaddup
Stop The Run

I hope you continue living.

[THE_WIZARD_]

thanks buddy...yer my bestie!

[whodean]

Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

The size of the debt is a legit question, but 2039 is the opposite of suddenly. And this is the same discussion as all the other discussions. Either we're going to be at a banana-republic level of income inequality and have a host of side-effects, like having an unsustainable economy and social stresses and an oversized national debt, or we're going to end the political and regulatory capture of government by the financial sector and multinationals.

If an economic event happened that would require massive borrowing, the level of existing debt could keep the US from being able to rescue the country (as happened just 10 years ago).

Everything will be just fine. Until it's not.

And that doesn't even speak to structural problems like how the cost of how servicing this debt will quickly become unsustainable within the country's annual budget with rising interest rates (even just back to historical norms from the aberrational level of the past few years).

Long term:. We're fucked. And our political leaders are busy dividing us over identity issues and other similarly trivial (vs. the potential consequences of continued economic inertia) wedges they use for political purpose.

Politically we can't DO anything anymore.

[hack]

OK, but that doesn't make sense. That piece may, but it's not clear. Might be well conceived but poorly written, but, again, a crisis for the US is a crisis for the world. In any of those hypotheticals, nobody wants to buy ANY bonds. Look at what happened post-financial crisis to the BRICS, Turkey, Indonesia, etc. -- cost of borrowing rose there but not in the US, where the crisis originated. As long as the US preserves its soft power it'll be the same -- a debt crisis in the US hurts others more. And in any scenario, the price of gold soars in times of crisis, so a key question here is "who has the most gold?" And if you wanted to really entertain total doomsday scenarios, the next question is "who stores the gold of other countries inside its own borders?"

The US is too big to fail. Which is one good reason why, politically, it can no longer DO anything. People that understand the system, like Blankfeins or Kochs or Mercers, can fuck with it like they are now and still a total failure is still inconceivable because it exists in a wider global context in which no one can challenge the economic structure.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The more I think about it, Old Billy was right
Let's kill all the lawyers, kill 'em tonight

[Da Geezer]

The US is too big to fail. Which is one good reason why, politically, it can no longer DO anything. People that understand the system, like Blankfeins or Kochs or Mercers, can fuck with it like they are now and still a total failure is still inconceivable because it exists in a wider global context in which no one can challenge the economic structure.

Maybe you are right. But what if you are not. In a theoretical spike in interest rates that make it impossible for the government to borrow, you have NSF welfare checks and riots in the streets. Over half the country relies on government largess now. What if that all stopped because the checks just bounced? The government could just not send out SS checks and other entitlements. But look at the word: entitlement. You would have riots and killings, egged on by the Dem party with their "income inequality" rationale. This country is already at the point where any disruption to welfare would cause social unrest.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Let 'em eat cake.

[froot loops]

You need to sit down and binge watch it. Seriously.

After I finish up Rake, Burn Notice and Justified.

[crashcourse]

nah

all those pale to the wire

[froot loops]

For you maybe, my cup of tea is more pulpy.

[entropy]

non political question: Do any of you use a cloud back up for personal items (like photos, documents, etc)? If so, who do you recommend and how secure is the system? I want something with good/easy accessibility as well... Looking for other thoughts than my own research or what I'm using today.

[hack]

There is always a flight to safety during a crisis, and even if t-bills are less safe than before because Americans caused a financial crisis in their own country, they'll be safer compared to every other option save for gold and non-precious physical assets, because access to credit will tighten more for every other country. Obviously there's nowhere near enough gold or physical assets to go around.