Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

So anywho, Sarah Sanders said Trump will likely NOT sign a simple bill re-authorizing DACA. He wants 'comprehensive immigration reform'. So that means the DACA kids are more than likely a bargaining chip to either get the RAISE Act passed (meaning dramatic cuts to LEGAL immigration) or The Wall funded or both.

And it's just one more thing a highly dysfunctional Congress has to worry about. As if tax reform, Obamacare, debt ceiling, etc. etc. weren't enough.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Hearing latest tracks for Irma are bad for Florida because it's less likely to weaken over Cuba now.

[hack]

There will be no tax reform. There may be a tax cut, or this may be the distraction from the failure to do that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

My advise is to disregard anything the local news says about Irma, possibly even the national stuff.

I have to admit, it's getting really hard to tell if Irma will go right up the middle of the FL Peninsula, skirt off Cuba on a NW heading and into the FL Straights and then into the Gulf of Mexico or (less likely) go up the East coast of FL.

That is because, the more I study the models, the harder it is to reconcile them. It's not easy. The problem with the local guys is that they too are probably looking at all this data and they are under pressure to nail something down. So, they do. Be careful with what they are saying.

I found the home website for The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. I never heard of it before but it is the primary ensemble model used by NOAA/NHC. There are some forecasting tools at this site that are way beyond me but I know enough to understand the variables.

Gun to my head, it looks to me like Irma is going to track right through the center of the Florida peninsula making land fall between Miami to the East and Fort Meyers to the West. Then track up through GA and peter out. That's worst case for me personally so that's what I'm hanging my hat on. Still, there is a chance Irma will go west of that track and hit the US on the Gulf coast, still a major, potentially devastating storm.

The HMRF model I'm currently looking at does not go past Sunday AM but at that point the eye of Irma is in the FL Straights. To direct hit South FL, it would almost have to make a 90 degree right turn to do it. This is a huge storm in it's breadth. They don't do that. So, I'm hoping for this and being prepared for it to hit South Fl directly.

[hack]

Should we have an Irma thread?

[Wild Hoss]

That'd be great.

[iam416]

Trouble makers.

[THE_WIZARD_]

So if Talent is Batman...then I am The Joker?

[THE_WIZARD_]

....I'm also smoker and a midnite toker too...

[Dr. Strangelove]

You are Aqua Man. And not the badass Khal Drogo version in the new movie. The 70's Superfriends one.

[AlabamAlum]

lmao at the BoSox

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/sports/baseball/boston-red-sox-stealing-signs-yankees.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Boston teams just love to cheat

[Dr. Strangelove]

There will be no tax reform. There may be a tax cut, or this may be the distraction from the failure to do that.

Hack- There have been rumors that one of the ways they will pay for a big corporate tax cut is by taxing 401k contributions upfront. Won't that be popular?

[hack]

If it speeds up the process of hitting bottom...

[Dr. Strangelove]

My advise is to disregard anything the local news says about Irma, possibly even the national stuff.

I have to admit, it's getting really hard to tell if Irma will go right up the middle of the FL Peninsula, skirt off Cuba on a NW heading and into the FL Straights and then into the Gulf of Mexico or (less likely) go up the East coast of FL.

That is because, the more I study the models, the harder it is to reconcile them. It's not easy. The problem with the local guys is that they too are probably looking at all this data and they are under pressure to nail something down. So, they do. Be careful with what they are saying.

I found the home website for The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. I never heard of it before but it is the primary ensemble model used by NOAA/NHC. There are some forecasting tools at this site that are way beyond me but I know enough to understand the variables.

Gun to my head, it looks to me like Irma is going to track right through the center of the Florida peninsula making land fall between Miami to the East and Fort Meyers to the West. Then track up through GA and peter out. That's worst case for me personally so that's what I'm hanging my hat on. Still, there is a chance Irma will go west of that track and hit the US on the Gulf coast, still a major, potentially devastating storm.

The HMRF model I'm currently looking at does not go past Sunday AM but at that point the eye of Irma is in the FL Straights. To direct hit South FL, it would almost have to make a 90 degree right turn to do it. This is a huge storm in it's breadth. They don't do that. So, I'm hoping for this and being prepared for it to hit South Fl directly.

So it looks like in the next 24 hours, Anguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, the Virgin Islands, and San Juan, Puerto Rico could all be directly hit by a Cat 5?