Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[hack]

I don't think the Democrats have hit bottom yet. Going to piss away the opportunity.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Saudi Arabia replaced their Crown Prince overnight. The new guy is the leading supporter of the war in Yemen and the Qatar blockade. Doubling down

[iam416]

Reading anything into a Georgia House race in a historically R district with historic amounts of outside money pouring in is foolish.

Perhaps the only thing I may even consider taking away is that in some suburban R districts, Nancy Pelosi is a bigger anchor than DJT.

[iam416]

Also, of course, Otto Warmbier died. I'm really disappointed that I can't read Salon's #hottake on his arrest. I'd love to read the whole thing leading up to them saying his arrest and trial were "richly deserved." Unfortunately, it's been deleted now that, you know, he was beaten to death.

[Hannibal]

I have said it at leat a couple of times and I'll say it again. Trump is wildly unpopular on a personal level and probably always will be, but his agenda is and will continue to be popular. The Republicans would be making a huge mistake if they wholeheartedly distance themselves from him on anything more than a personal level. There are a half dozen prominent issues where the "centrist" position in DC is actually miles to the Left of the American Center. These issues represent a series of gigantic, hanging curves that are just waiting to be knocked out of the park. But most Republicans are completely gutless and hilariously gullible. Even after Trump's win they are still terrified to the bone of being called "racist", "homophobic", or "mean spirited". This is true not just of the poltiicians, but of the major donors and the old school Conservative think tankers like George Will and the writers for the National Review. These people have, ironically, argued in favor of many aspects of Trump's agenda for decades and now that they are getting what they have asked for, they refuse to back the guy giving it to them. They can easily be triggered into Virtue Signalling mode and when they fall for this scam, they lose.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Reading anything into a Georgia House race in a historically R district with historic amounts of outside money pouring in is foolish.

Perhaps the only thing I may even consider taking away is that in some suburban R districts, Nancy Pelosi is a bigger anchor than DJT.

Shockingly lucid

[Jeff Buchanan]

......Perhaps the only thing I may even consider taking away is that in some suburban R districts, Nancy Pelosi is a bigger anchor than DJT.

Well, Karen Handel's TV spots - the ones that ran hundreds of times in the last two weeks - would support that take.

Ossoff was heavily associated with her in those adds. But I think you might be surprised about what North Fulton Co. voters think of DJT. If there was some way to merge the AA votes in Dekalb Co. with the disaffected wealthy, typically Rs, in North Fulton Co., the D's might make some headway.

From 1948 to 2002, GA was a strongly D state. You can look back to the end of Governor Roy Barnes', D, term in 2002 when he had already served in office with a D controlled house and Senate.

Sonny Perdue, who had switched parties and ran against Barnes as an R won the gubernatorial election marking the end of of 50+y of D dominance in the state. Barnes returned to the governor's race in 2010 with high hopes of unseating the Rs but lost to current R Governor Nathan Deal. The race was close. I don't think the state overall is that solidly in the R camp.

Trump may catalyze disaffected Rs to switch parties. I'm in that boat. If the Ds can get off their asses and, at the grass roots level, energize the D electorate that is widespread, we could see some changes.

[iam416]

From 1948 to 2002

From 1868-1980 the bulk of the South was strongly Democratic. Shit changes.

In a two-month period, Ossoff received donations from 800 people in Georgia and 7000 people in California. If it were national election then I'm sure he wins. It wasn't.

It was, I've read, the most expensive House race in history...by far. You won't have millions pouring into House races like that in 2018. What is far more likely to hold true is voters sticking with their party loyalties -- coming home, so to speak.

Trump may catalyze disaffected Rs to switch parties. I'm in that boat. If the Ds can get off their asses and, at the grass roots level, energize the D electorate that is widespread, we could see some changes.

The Ds are, IMO, struggling with messages that work for this group. Hannibal's core point is well-taken IMO and should at least be considered -- the Ds are way left on a lot of issues. And, IMO, they're not particularly inclined to tack back to the middle -- to you, to other voters in Georgia.

[AlabamAlum]

The D message HAS to have more substance than "Trump is an idiot" - even if that message is correct.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The D message HAS to have more substance than "Trump is an idiot" - even if that message is correct.

Correct

They should look to Ronald Reagan.

Works for me.

[froot loops]

1. If the Democrat base stays energized like they have for these 4 special elections, they should be in good shape in 2018. That if should be bold and in 28 point font.

2. I'm sure Pelosi is a drag, but Trump is the only reason the GA 6 was close. And I'm under the impression Ossoff didn't go hard after Trump like the Handel campaign went after Pelosi, maybe Jeff can confirm or deny it.

3. It's worth noting that while Trump is unpopular, employment is at full level, there is nothing that Trump has done on a policy level or legislative level that would have filtered out this quickly. The proposed AHCA is not law yet and that would be a game changer. Most of the bad press is palace intrigue BS, investigations and all around ridiculousness.

[Dr. Strangelove]

My understanding is that Kennedy in 1962 and Bush in 2002 are the only two Presidents whose parties gained seats in the midterm elections since WWII.

[iam416]

Clinton in 1998.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Clinton in 1998.

Oh, true. Stat might've referred to first term only

[iam416]

Wow. I forgot that the Ds had 257 Reps and 57 Senators in 2008.

Not winning back the Senate in 2016 was also a huge surprise to me.