Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

When Trump allows Ryan to gut Medicaid, Cousin Cletus is really going to be pissed at Obama.

[entropy]

I'm just guessing... and maybe I'm reaching here... but I think Froot is mildly disappointed in the election results.

[Da Geezer]

....Under Obama, growth has been close to zero. I've actually argued to you that growth is well below zero which explains (1) why more 25-54 men are out of the work force than in 1930 at the height of the Great Depression. That's also (2) why there has been no wage growth since 1999 (for working people). That is also (3) why interest rates are close to zero (but going to rise next month). Under Obama, the upper 10%, mostly dealers in paper, and the lowest 10% (welfare) have done great. They belong to the Democrat Party.

An increased growth rate typically is spread throughout the economy. Again, I know you like to look at it as a fixed pie, so lets just say that today we have a pie with the size of 18T and next year we have a pie of 19.25 T. Let's just assume all the distributions are the same as our current shares (they will be more spread out, but that is a different issue)[B] Can't you see that you get a bigger piece of pie, even if your percentage of the GDP stays the same?

How can allowing working men and women in WV to go back to work hurt the rest of us? Why should their lives be turned upside down? After the election DSL said something on the order of "the Dems should have had more plans for the coal miners that were put out of work". DSL and I both posted articles that had the thesis of a dignity gap, that working men wanted the dignity of a real 40-hour-a-week, Dad-bring-home-the-bacon job.

I'd honestly like to know why folks in what NR calls "the Great White Ghetto" should have their jobs eliminated by government decree. Can you answer me that? Would you feel differently if coal miners were preponderantly black or mostly illegals?

I'd also like to know your definition of middle-class. Not to argue, but just to see how we differ on that. Have you ever heard either party use the term "lower class" to describe the lowest 10%?

And, while you are at it, did you see the 60 Minutes tonight about Turkey? If so, reaction?

[Da Geezer]

Talent:

The apparent R shift on protectionism is appalling, IMO. It leaves me without a party I'm even remotely close to.

I feel the same way. I wish this were one where I could say," well..let's give it a chance and see what happens". I get some hope from Trump's reaction to Brexit when he said "..well, that means more tourists for my resort..(in the UK). He obviously knows more about international trade than the Rs in the House.

Canada and Mexico have already said they were ready to renegotiate NAFTA. I don't understand why they would say that as opposed to just something like "..we'll work with the new administration". Maybe these trade deals could be changed in ways helpful to the US. Maybe they have become unfair.

I have two big problems. 1) Industrial, manufacturing jobs may have left the US, perhaps to Mexico or China, but they are not coming back in the "information age" (robotics and all that) and

2) If Trump were to push China, or vice versa, the US could crush China's economy. That is a huge problem. China absolutely has to have the US market. They are trending more toward a market-based economy in their exports, but they still manipulate their currency and they still build whole cities in which no one lives. That is the command part of their economy. If something happens to China's economy, I think you could see a depression in the US, and even military action by China to appeal to nationalism.

Free and fair trade is like economic growth in that it helps everyone. I fear that Trump has set up a metric "returning blue collar jobs" that can't happen.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.........I have two big problems. 1) Industrial, manufacturing jobs may have left the US, perhaps to Mexico or China, but they are not coming back in the "information age" (robotics and all that) and

2) If Trump were to push China, or vice versa, the US could crush China's economy. That is a huge problem. China absolutely has to have the US market. They are trending more toward a market-based economy in their exports, but they still manipulate their currency and they still build whole cities in which no one lives. That is the command part of their economy. If something happens to China's economy, I think you could see a depression in the US, and even military action by China to appeal to nationalism.

Free and fair trade is like economic growth in that it helps everyone. I fear that Trump has set up a metric "returning blue collar jobs" that can't happen.

I got up today before talent so,.........

(1) is a duhhh but still worth noting it as a problem for you. I's not a problem for the Trump constituency because I'm not sure they realize the reality. Seems to me the larger problem for the US is all the pandering that will occur (Trump: "my good fiend Bill Ford just called me and said he's not moving jobs [the meager number of jobs associated with the production of the Lincoln MKZ] from Kentucky to Mexico!!!!) that will be just a big waste of time.

(2) this is less of a big deal than Trump wants to make it. That is not at all obvious to the casual observer. Most Western economists argue that the Yuan (RMB) is undervalued; the Chinese disagree noting that since 2005, the Yuan has lost value so it is "less undervalued." Like jobs coming back to the US, the reality is "exchange rates around the world fluctuate greatly, whether through government intent, interest rate changes or market sentiment. Picking on only one country like China, however, is a poor substitute for good economic policy."

http://theconversation.com/does-china-manipulate-its-currency-as-donald-trump-claims-60148

These two things that are "your problems" are just another bombastic aspect of the Trump platform that got him elected. Just to be clear, I reject the notion that a stupid constituency elected Donald Trump. What elected Donald Trump is the network of various information sources that Trump optimized that simply failed to tell the whole story about these things. They are difficult to understand without doing your homework and that's not a thing that consumers of these information sources are willing to do.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Talent:

I feel the same way. I wish this were one where I could say," well..let's give it a chance and see what happens". I get some hope from Trump's reaction to Brexit when he said "..well, that means more tourists for my resort..(in the UK). He obviously knows more about international trade than the Rs in the House.

Canada and Mexico have already said they were ready to renegotiate NAFTA. I don't understand why they would say that as opposed to just something like "..we'll work with the new administration". Maybe these trade deals could be changed in ways helpful to the US. Maybe they have become unfair.

I have two big problems. 1) Industrial, manufacturing jobs may have left the US, perhaps to Mexico or China, but they are not coming back in the "information age" (robotics and all that) and

2) If Trump were to push China, or vice versa, the US could crush China's economy. That is a huge problem. China absolutely has to have the US market. They are trending more toward a market-based economy in their exports, but they still manipulate their currency and they still build whole cities in which no one lives. That is the command part of their economy. If something happens to China's economy, I think you could see a depression in the US, and even military action by China to appeal to nationalism.

Free and fair trade is like economic growth in that it helps everyone. I fear that Trump has set up a metric "returning blue collar jobs" that can't happen.

To add to #1, a big part of the reason that those manufacturing jobs were good-paying and stable to begin with was because they were unionized (in many cases). Since the 70's and 80's, the labor laws have been changed in many states to make it more difficult to organize unions. Even if you could bring back thousands and thousands of manufacturing jobs from offshore, it's highly unlikely that they would pay or offer the same degree of stability relatively speaking as a generation or two ago.

[iam416]

I've spent a lot of time talking to economic development folks of every stripe and with decades of combined experience. One thing the folks in SE Ohio strongly stated, to a person, is that it's now cheaper to make goods in the US. COGS is principally a Labor Cost + Energy Cost (gcost to produce the product and ship it through the supply chain). With the aforementioned automation, labor cost is not the driver it once was. Energy cost is. Even with oil relatively low, it's still an energy cost issue. It's cheaper for a company to make something in Zanesville and ship to all points in the Ohio River Valley than it is to make it in Taiwan and ship to it to all points in the Ohio River Valley.

So, now there's that initial hurdle for any company to get over -- relocating and building a new factory. And perhaps we need oil to go up 25% to make that decision easier. But, market forces, driven by automation's reduction in labor costs, will drive jobs closer to supply chains. That's really good for ginormous consumer markets.

Man, it's one of the great parts of my job -- to be able to call someone up, ask them if they wouldn't mind meeting with me. And then I spend 2-3 hours talking about this stuff with a guy who has spent 20-25 years at every level of government focusing on rural economic development.

There's obviously lots more confronting rural economic development -- in particular, availability of commercial ready sites -- but remember -- it's Labor + Energy and Energy is the now the key driver. And even with cheap oil, the US still has an ample supply of ultra-cheap natural gas. Companies can literally locate on a site with their own personal natural gas well. Provided the site is ready.

[entropy]

I actually see more tech jobs moving in the future. You can program from anywhere in the world.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[iam416]

Correct.

[froot loops]

The US just doesn't produce enough tech ready people. US companies have to heavily use immigration to fill spots. That is something that wasn't even broached during the campaign.

[iam416]

Correct, as well.

[entropy]

yes.. correct. The demand>>>>supply. In fact, I bet the number of work visas in that area would shock people.

[iam416]

It's a huge point of emphasis amongst folks in workforce development.

I mean, it's to the point that Software "bootcamps" can charge $10K for a 12 week program and virtually guarantee a decent paying hire within 6 weeks of completion.

[froot loops]

I'm careful about anytime I update my linkedin account. It creates a flood of calls.

I have been on a few accounts where it seems like 35 to 40 percent of the people I work with are on work visas. If they lower the amount of work visas, you run the risk of having companies just set up shop in another country.

Boot camps are fine, they show you the technical aspects, but they don't teach the soft skills needed. I have yet to encounter a job where the technical aspect is the most challenging part. Navigating the BS is much more important.

[AlabamAlum]

I think we can all agree that hospital administrators are the better angels of human nature and do a job so critical that it should never be farmed out to overseas stakeholders.

God bless the US of A and God bless the fine folks in hospital management. Amen.