Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[CGVT]

And one more thing.

Fuck you, Nate Silver ;)

[hack]

As an aside, I wonder how candidates of either stripe will act in future elections. Will brashness and braggadocio become de rigueur in coming years? Has President-Elect Camacho Trump dramatcally changed the paradigm? It's all quite interesting. I wonder what the alien observers from Alpha Centauri think?

The long-term question IMO is how the parties pivot. Both parties knew that establishment politics wasn't going to work forever. How do they now change? Does the GOP seek to address that tension between the money it works for and the votes it periodically must capture? Does the DNC purge all Clintonite bits and let Warren and Sanders take over?

I think the latter is quite likely, but, I do agree with your point. I think the lesson here is that even if you're running a centrist technocrat, and even if the country is up for that just like talent anticipates it will be (I agree with him), you still can't run on that. Voting will always be an emotional decision. If you're a technocrat you need an optics person who will find an emotional way to convey your message. Hillary didn't do that. Whilst the GOP needed to decide what it believes in, if the Ds are going to go back to their roots as true lefties, they will have to do it by cranking those policy position down into the smallest and easier rallying cries imaginable.

[entropy]

[ame]https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/796349399949606913[/ame]

For those who feel racist won... 200 counties that BO carried that went to Trump.


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[Wild Hoss]

So he's personally popular but his policies are wildly not? I just don't see how that works but polls bear that out

Alot of the people he's popular with didn't vote yesterday. That's how it works.

[iam416]

Also of note, Ds are about to start agreeing with me in full about curbing Executive Orders and the Administrative state and, in general, trying to respect institutional checks and balances and accountability.

Donald J. Trump will soon have the Executive Order pen. Don't say I didn't warn you as I think I did...explicitly.

[iam416]

Voting will always be an emotional decision. If you're a technocrat you need an optics person who will find an emotional way to convey your message. Hillary didn't do that.

Word. Trump voters had it. HRC voters did not. Turnout carried the day.

I definitely think the Ds go progressive. One lesson from Trump is that it's better to speak to your voters in very emotional terms than to worry about pissing off people who weren't likely to vote for you anyway. Warren won't give a fuck about those on the other side in the least. It'll be an emotionally-charged, very clear message.

The only question I have is whether the electorate will swing back to a "uniter" by then. The next 4 years are going to be savagely partisan.

[AlabamAlum]

Word. Trump voters had it. HRC voters did not. Turnout carried the day.

I definitely think the Ds go progressive. One lesson from Trump is that it's better to speak to your voters in very emotional terms than to worry about pissing off people who weren't likely to vote for you anyway. Warren won't give a fuck about those on the other side in the least. It'll be an emotionally-charged, very clear message.

The only question I have is whether the electorate will swing back to a "uniter" by then. The next 4 years are going to be savagely partisan.

Perfectly stated.

[AlabamAlum]

And let's not forget to shower Matt Groening with accolades:

[hack]

The next 4 years are going to be savagely partisan.

If there's one thing that bridges that divide, it's spending taxpayer money. I could easily see a blurring of L and R but a consolidation of insidery people who want to defend their patronage opportunities. But, overall, I suspect it's more likely we'll get common cause between GOP and Trump, and partisanship. And Trump will spot old-fashioned procurement/graft opportunities pretty fast. Infrastructure building will be profitable for him.

[Wild Hoss]

Yeah, there's not going to be any principled GOP opposition to Trump. The buffet is open, and its time to feed.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Money talks .......

The Dow, futures down nearly 800 points in the after math of the Trump victory, along with other financial markets around the world in nearly equal share, is now trading slightly higher at its open. World markets have uniformly recovered almost all their earlier losses.

Experts don't think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates with a Trump presidency looming and after a bout of uncertainty in the markets, something they don't like, the specter of lower taxes and less government regulation is making the potential for corporate profits look good.

Safe havens like gold went up almost $30 an ounce to just over $1320 for a while and now has dropped back down. Same with treasuries that are just about where they were yesterday.

In currencies the Mexican Peso plunged to a record low in relationship to the $ and has now recovered most of that.

As much as I dislike the person, Donald Trump, and the likelihood that he will assemble an administration made of mostly unqualified players from within his good-ol'-boy network, the markets are strong predictors of how things that are regarded as important to us here in America will play out.

It appears there is going to be a favorable legislature in both the house and senate to move some of Trump's policies forward:

Americans wanted immigration control. They will get some version of it if not a paired down one. The ACA, as it was envisioned by the Clintons, won't survive.

Because the entire healthcare issue is so complicated it is impossible to predict how this is going to play out. I'm with AA here. Expanding Medicare and Medicaid with block grants to the states is probably what will happen - this in order to claim there has been no significant loss of coverage for Americans.

If Trump, like he says he is going to do, can inject more competition into the system, health care costs may drop. That is going to be a hard nut to crack though with entrenched polices, the stuff in the small print, that is meant to prevent competition to preserve profits.

The cost of pharmaceuticals, high on the list of things Americans were most concerned about with regard to health care, is going to be a very thorny issue for Trump. Big Pharma's Lobbyists will be lining up to get the Trump administration's ear. No telling how this will turn out either. I just wrote an order for a drug call Abendazole that treats common pin-worms. When a child is infected, you treat the whole family. The RX is 2 tablets X1 then repeat in one week or 4 tabs total. The cost for a family of 3 was $2400 or $200 per pill. There is no other prescription products available as Mebendazole, the only potential competitor, is no longer marketed in the US. This kind of thing is likely to continue in a Trump administration.

I'm with talent on free trade ...... what is Trump going to do here? This is such a misunderstood issue among the American Electorate that, IMO, nothing will change and in 2 years people with the press leading the charge will be asking Trump where are all the jobs you promised.

I'm less certain about taxes. With a R dominated Legislature, at least I feel good that something positive with the current tax code will happen. What that will be is anyone's guess (probably not a lot) and I think those wondering about what the Congress will actually look like with regard to newly elected arrivals as Hack is doing will help clarify what will happen.

[Cody_Russell]

And one more thing.

Fuck you, Nate Silver ;)

Hey now (sensing the sarcasm)... Nate Silver was one of the closest "big name projectors" and predicting this election..
FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28% chance and said it would be close.

Huffington Post at a 99% Clinton victory probability however ...
I saw a few others (like New York Times?) that had Clinton in the 90s

[Jeff Buchanan]

When will ??s about Russian hackers being behind a complete reversal of expectated outcomes emerge?

[hack]

Yeah, there's not going to be any principled GOP opposition to Trump. The buffet is open, and its time to feed.

Is it? It could shut fast. It will be interesting to see if Congress rams through a spending bill. Lots of unknowns.

[Wild Hoss]

Is it? It could shut fast. It will be interesting to see if Congress rams through a spending bill. Lots of unknowns.

Oh, yes. Its not going to be just spending either...there's a whole section for the enforcement of social mores over by the salad bar, and a made-to-order cook for the Supreme Court.

Will burn hot and fast? Maybe. Lets hope. The protectionist debate hasn't even begun yet...all those Kansas farmers and ranchers woke up today blissfully ignorant of the threat to the hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of foreign exports that they helped vote into office. Songs will be sung of the lobbying battles between the Ag and Manufacturing sectors. Good times.