Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Ghengis Jon]

I erroniously believed the American electorate had more intellectual firepower than a plate of Rice-A-Roni. I was wrong. I am ashamed to be an American.

[hack]

SHORT TERM
Two years with a theoretically friendly Congress. What's he actually want to do? Surely the GOP will trade anything for 3 Supreme Court judges. Do Ds take back the Senate in 2018? Can they even take back the house? Feels like not on the latter but yes on the former.

MEDIUM TERM
In 2020 turnout is going to be incredibly high. Who the heck knows what happens until the, but the kids are politicized and the age gap between the demographics won't change.

LONG TERM
IMO the lesson from this cycle has always been that people are done with politics as usual and policies as they've been. We're in a transition time and have been since the end of the Cold War. The key is to get ready for what's next. Do the Dems purge all bits of Clintonism and hand over to the Bernie/Warren wing? Does the GOP finally deal with the tension between social crusaders and corporate services? That's the future, IMO.

[Dr. Strangelove]

And how many republicans will vote for it? They're bought as well... This vote will make many consider it, but that corp $$ is a powerful voice.


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Will Republicans vote to kill free trade deals even though they know full well the economic damage that will cause? Or will they heed their voters who screamed that that's what they want?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Going by the unconfirmed Ohio totals

Total (2012): 5,590,934
Obama: 2,827,709 (50.58%)
Romney: 2,661,437 (47.60%)

Total (2016): 5,325,395
Trump: 2,771,984 (52.1%)
Clinton: 2,317,001 (43.5%)

Trump actually got fewer votes than Obama in 2012 but won by way more. Nearly 250,000 fewer voters than 4 years ago. Wow. My home county (Lorain) went for a Republican for the first time since Reagan I think...and the vote appears to have been down there as well since 2012.

[hack]

Trump is a four-year prospect, but corporate money is, on paper, forever. Hard to know what comes next. What are the priorities? Scalia's seat is surely tops. What after that? Go after Obamacare? Or the EPA? What's the process going to be there? How long would it take to kill Obamacare? Are things done faster in a budgeting process or outside it? How much of the never-Trump wing of the GOP stands with Ds in the House and Senate to stand in the way? Are there trades they can make to work together? Should we assume a two-year window?

[Hannibal]

*yawn* -- I just woke up and got on here. How did the election go? Did that clown Drumpf give his concession speech yet?

[Wild Hoss]

The lesson here is the same as it was when the GOP nominated a cardboard cutout of a Neocon in 2000, and the Dem elected a young black counterprogrammer in 2008: Get Out Your Base.

Americans are lazy, and have to be prodded and motivated to get off their ass and go to the polls.

Donald did it for his segment. Hillary did not. The end.

[Rocky Bleier]

No, Hannibal, he did not.

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[Cody_Russell]

Clinton was just a terrible nomination.
Obama had 65 million votes in 2012. 69 million in 2008.
Clinton has 59 million votes right now. Perhaps that number will go up today...

Way to go Democrats. *Insert Hilary Clinton laugh.*

[iam416]

(1) Really amazing election. Trump broke very rule. He was outspent in Wisconsin 10:1 and probably outspent by a huge margin nationally. Really stunning.

(2) I guess I need to revise my predictions about 2018. Heh. The Ds will likely do well. 2020 is a huge year -- it's a census year. It's a year to re-draw districts. How DJT performs in the next 4 years will, obviously, determine control for a decade.

(3) Trump now has to implement his promises. He can do it on immigration. He can't on foreign trade. Those jobs aren't coming back because they don't exist -- anywhere. More cars are made today in the US than ever, they're just made more efficiently. To that end, the cost of energy is now the driving factor for location as opposed to workforce. It's cheaper to make goods closer to your supply chain. So, I'm not exactly sure what he's protectionist nonsense will accomplish.

(4) I find it remarkably wrong to characterize the winning electorate as racist and sexist and genderist and trans-ist and whatever. It's the tried and true way to dismiss their votes and ideas. But I assume the Ds want some of those voters back. Calling them racist misogynists won't work too well.

(5) Hoss is correct -- the Ds failed with GOTV, IMO. Trump ran BEHIND Romney in Wisconsin and marginally ahead of Romney in Michigan. These were states HRC took for granted as she out campaigning in Georgia, Arizona and other states she didn't need. If you're going to have a firewall, tend to your firewall.

(6) I'm not sure where the popular vote total will settle, but right now both candidates are behind JOHN MCCAIN's total. That, IMO, speaks to the choice.

(7) Congratulations to Hannibal. You were correct re polls, well, sort of -- you're prediction post certainly suggested you didn't think your take on the polls was likely correct, but it was. Hell, I don't think anyone, including Trump, thought they'd win Wisconsin.

[iam416]

Some national exit poll data breaking down voters: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...on/exit-polls/

Trump wins men by 12, but loses women by 12. 58-37 for the white vote and 65-29 to HRC for latinos.

[SeattleLionsFan]

Nate Cohn from the NY times made an interesting point yesterday. Non-college educated whites voted like a minority group and are 40% of the electorate. I guess it is just the logical extension of identity politics.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Tough to say at this point if this was a rejection of Hillary specifically or any 'establishment Dem" would've been beaten just as badly.

And by 'beaten badly' she still will win the popular vote. So a slight majority of Americans didn't reject her.

[iam416]

Nate Cohn from the NY times made an interesting point yesterday. Non-college educated whites voted like a minority group and are 40% of the electorate. I guess it is just the logical extension of identity politics.

It IS identity politics. And to be clear, they've always existed. They were certainly a basis for white blocs well before AAs or whatever minority. They ebb and they flow. Trump walked into a storm where a specific group was not doing well AND racial talk was prominent. And, IMO, when you start talking about race and do it prominently and assertively you create a tribalist impulse in those "against" you. I may agree, in part, that it's advantage for some white people to be white and I may agree with AAs getting way overpoliced, but my visceral reaction to "white privilege" and BLM is to say, hey, wait a minute -- I'm not doing anything wrong -- and to start to view myself in terms of my race.

So you had a ton of residual anger from the housing bubble collapse, a specific group that was way hard hit and then a dialogue that was very racially assertive. And Trump owned that with populism that some probably though wasn't possible thanks to our "PC culture" -- the great insurance policy against white folks going tribal.

That is only one smaller piece of the Trump's success, but that's how I think it played out.

[edindetroit]

Even if Trump pulls out Florida, he will have to win some close races in NC, Virginia, Ohio, and others...
Playing around with my Electoral Map, Clinton still wins... no doubt.

DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!!